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Rains, rumors, and politics: Why private weather forecasters face heat in Tamil Nadu

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) remains the official weather authority, but private forecasters, including popular social media figures, have gained followers for localised predictions. Conflicting information has led to public confusion at times.

k. Nitika Shivani

Published Oct 21, 2024 | 6:00 PM ⚊ Updated Oct 21, 2024 | 6:00 PM

Koyambedu vegetable market.

Heavy rain predicted in Puducherry and Tamil Nadu due to deep depression (Screengrab)

The recent spell of heavy rains in Tamil Nadu has not only caused widespread flooding, but also reignited a political debate over weather forecasting in the state. In the run-up to the downpour, private weather forecasters found themselves at the center of a political storm, drawing criticism from various quarters for their predictions.

The role of private weather forecasters

While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the official body for issuing weather alerts, in recent years, several private individuals and agencies have gained significant popularity for their detailed and localised predictions. Some of these forecasters, including well-known weather enthusiasts like Pradeep John, Srikanth, Raja Ramaswamy etc. on social media platforms like X, have built large followings by offering real-time updates and nuanced predictions.

However, their role has sparked controversy. Political analysts like Baskaran Krishnamurthy argue that the proliferation of private forecasters often leads to confusion among the public, with conflicting reports on rainfall severity, flooding risks, and storm patterns. In the days leading up to the recent heavy rains, Tamil Nadu witnessed differing weather predictions from private forecasters and official channels, fuelling a political debate on the reliability and accountability of these forecasters.

Related: Four die as heavy rains lash Tamil Nadu

Haha! laughs the public at clear skies on a red alert day

Residents of Tamil Nadu often take to social media to mock both private weather forecasters and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) when predictions for rain fail to materialise on days marked with a red alert. But what lies behind these forecasts, and how do meteorological predictions truly work?

 

 

As for memes and trolls, it is something that cannot be avoided and are to be dealt with an open mind say private weather forecasters. Also, as the public engages with these forecasts, their interpretations can be swayed by political affiliations, leading to a more polarised view of what should be a non-partisan service aimed at public safety.

Also Read: Rain batters Tamil Nadu

This blend of meteorology and politics illustrates how critical information can become a battleground for larger ideological conflicts, raising questions about trust, accountability, and the role of government in managing natural disasters, the private forecasters say.

 

Behind the glasses and a chalk board, yet beyond a telescope

Pradeep John spoke to South First about how predictions work. “It’s a black and white scenario, really,” he said. “Weather forecasting is a complex interplay of data analysis, satellite imagery, and real-time observations. While we strive to provide accurate predictions, we also have to manage the unpredictability of nature it also involves meticulous planning and logistics, from analysing atmospheric data to utilising advanced technology for accurate predictions. We work closely with satellite data, radar systems, and local inputs to provide timely updates,” he said.

John further explained, “Our logistics include gathering data from various sources mostly from the Union government that have data and prediction files, including meteorological models and local weather stations, which allows us to refine our forecasts. It’s crucial to remember that not every prediction will be perfect, and we aim to communicate that uncertainty clearly.”

Also Read: Chennai’s strategic battle against heavy rains

Srikanth, another private weather forecaster told South First, “Despite the pressures, we focus on delivering reliable information rather than getting caught up in the online commentary. While we appreciate feedback, it’s essential to understand that our forecasts are informed by science, not social media trends. To avoid the pitfalls of memes and trolling, we emphasise on transparency, helping the public understand the nuances of weather predictions.”

Political criticism of weather predictions

Leaders from across the political spectrum have weighed in on the issue, raising concerns over the influence of private forecasters on public opinion. Ruling party officials have pointed to the confusion created by unregulated forecasts, particularly when predictions vary from the IMD’s official reports. The argument is that conflicting forecasts can disrupt government planning for disaster preparedness and mislead the public, say political party members.

According to a report, MK Stalin, the Chief minister of Tamil Nadu, advised the public to follow certain guidelines; one of which includes following a single authoritative voice when it comes to weather predictions. The government relies on IMD reports to take decisions related to flood management and disaster response. When private predictions stir unnecessary panic, it complicates relief efforts.

Thirupathy Narayanan, BJP member spoke to South First about weather forecasts being made political, “At the end of the day, this back-and-forth is just healthy political banter, and it shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Our primary focus must be on ensuring accurate weather predictions to effectively manage disaster responses,” he said. However, he emphasised on how people have to believe what the government says, and people ought not to get carried away.

Also Read: After rainwaters, Chennai drowns in garbage

Rajiv Gandhi, a DMK member, told South First that the importance lies not in the political posturing, but in how they can work together to ensure that the public receives the right forecasts and that we handle any resulting situations smoothly. “It’s essential that we channel our discussions towards constructive solutions.” added Rajiv.

Political analyst, Sumanth Raman commented on the political aspect of the weather predictions and forecasting made by private forecasters. He said, “With political parties now launching a Weather wing, it’s important to question the credibility of private forecasters. Unlike the IMD, which has established protocols, these private entities lack proper certification. Yet, due to the IMD’s inconsistent alerts, it’s these unregulated forecasters who are gaining the spotlight and even being invited by the government for their input.”  He also questioned the qualification and grounds of language used by a few weather forecasters on social media.

 

(Edited by Ananya Rao)

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