The researchers behind the Punal study warn that such tragedies will only grow more frequent as Tamil Nadu faces hotter and longer summers.
Published Oct 25, 2025 | 5:47 PM ⚊ Updated Oct 25, 2025 | 6:08 PM
Relatives of stampede victims at the Karur Government Hospital.
Synopsis: The deadly stampede on 27 September, at a TVK rally in Karur killed 41 people, was exacerbated by extreme heat and poor crowd management. Poovulagin Nanbargal’s study revealed that temperatures exceeding 38°C, overcrowding, and inadequate shade created a lethal “heat trap.” The report urges banning daytime open-air events and implementing heat disaster protocols to prevent future tragedies.
It was supposed to be another electrifying day of political enthusiasm in Tamil Nadu. On 27 September, thousands gathered under the blazing sun in Namakkal and later in Karur to see their beloved actor-turned-politician Thalapathy Vijay — Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) party chief.
However, by evening, the celebration turned into the saddest day of their lives.
A deadly stampede ensued in the rally that claimed the lives of 41 – many of them women and children – all crushed in the chaos that erupted as exhaustion, heat, and panic collided.
According to a detailed study by Poovulagin Nanbargal, what happened in Karur was not merely a case of crowd mismanagement. It was “an extremely unfortunate but avoidable incident” — one that “reveals the dangerous combination of overcrowding and extreme heat stress that is becoming common across Tamil Nadu.”
The findings suggest that the tragedy was not just human error, but also a symptom of the worsening climate conditions shaping everyday life.
For hours before Vijay’s arrival, thousands had been waiting without shelter, food, or water. The mercury climbed relentlessly, and the packed streets of Velusamypuram became what researchers later called a “heat trap.”
Long before the political convoy arrived, the first signs of distress appeared, people fainting, gasping for breath, and collapsing in the crowd. What followed was a preventable descent into disaster.
The Punal framework, a scientific model developed to assess how extreme heat and environmental factors affect human safety during large outdoor gatherings, revealed chilling details about the heat levels that day.
“The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) exceeded 38°C at both Karur and Namakkal political rallies due to the combined effects of crowds, urbanisation, and global warming,” the report noted. Under these conditions, fainting or heat exhaustion can occur “within just a few hours in the absence of shade and cooling.”
At Namakkal, the heat had already begun to take its toll. Vijay, who was expected to arrive at 8:45 a.m., reached only at 2:30 p.m.
“By that time, a huge crowd of more than 20,000 people had gathered, and many of them had been waiting for hours,” the study found. Fainting had already started before Vijay’s speech, as the researchers put it, “reports of fainting and heatstroke began to emerge even before the leader’s arrival.”
The data paints a grim picture. Using thermal and physiological models, the study found that “the combined effect of solar radiation and reduced winds resulted in extreme heat stress conditions (UTCI > 38°C) between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.,” with peak temperatures reaching 42.6°C.
When crowds exceeded 30,000 at Karur, the situation became deadly. In such dense gatherings, people’s own body heat can magnify danger: “the heat released can exceed 250 W/person, or 1000 W/m²,” which means the crowd “acts like a furnace, trapping heat and raising local temperatures,” the study said.
The choice of venue at Karur proved catastrophic. “The Velusamypuram Road, a narrow stretch within a dense urban area, was wholly unsuitable for a massive, high-energy road show like Vijay’s,” the report reiterated.
By the time he arrived the crowd had swelled to more than 30,000 people, tightly packed with little ventilation or movement space. Even before he could begin addressing the gathering, a few victims died en route to the hospital, most likely from heatstroke. Moments later, the surging excitement turned into a deadly stampede.
The study describes in clinical but devastating detail how the human body reacts under such thermal stress. When wind flow is obstructed and humidity rises, “sweating becomes the only remaining cooling mechanism.”
But in a crowd where air circulation is minimal, even sweat cannot evaporate effectively. “The large amount of evaporated sweat from the crowds could have increased humidity levels by 5–10 percent,” the report observed. This vicious cycle “further reduces the cooling effect of sweat, creating a negative feedback loop,” a perfect storm for collapse.
As heat builds inside the body, the results are swift and severe. When core body temperatures reach 38–39°C, fainting and dizziness are observed. On further escalation, inner body temperatures can reach 40–41°C at which point extreme effects such as heat stroke, heart attack, and organ failure become imminent.
According to the simulations, many victims at Karur would have reached this danger mark by 6 pm. “It is highly likely that the victims were already in a state of severe hyperthermia and potentially suffered a heat stroke,” the report stated.
The researchers behind the Punal study warn that such tragedies will only grow more frequent as Tamil Nadu faces hotter and longer summers.
“Fossil fuel-driven global warming is increasing the ambient temperatures day by day,” they cautioned. “For a culture that is rooted in social gatherings, we are at a point of no return.”
Their recommendations are urgent and clear. Large outdoor events should no longer be permitted during the hottest months.
“Open-air events should not be allowed during the daytime,” the report urged, adding that if they must occur, organisers must provide enough shaded areas or tents for everyone and ensure each person has access to at least two liters of safe drinking water every hour.
The study also called on the government to declare extreme heat as a disaster under the Disaster Management Act and to integrate early warning systems similar to cyclone alerts.
Ultimately, the Karur tragedy stands as a grim lesson in neglect, both of human safety and of climate reality. “It is critical to view this research as a stark reminder that our social gatherings are no longer safe,” the authors wrote.
The deaths in Karur were not caused by chance or fate, but by a failure to adapt to the heat of a changing world. Unless the lessons are learned quickly, the next rally, the next festival, the next mass gathering could be just as fatal.
(Edited by Amit Vasudev)
