With the delimitation exercise expected in 2026, the North-South divide in parliamentary strength could widen, fundamentally altering India's political balance.
Published Mar 01, 2025 | 8:14 PM ⚊ Updated Mar 01, 2025 | 8:14 PM
India's skewed population growth has implications for the South when it comes to delimitation. (iStock.jpg)
Synopsis: It is feared that the skewed South-North population ratio will impact Tamil Nadu’s representation in law-making bodies, leaving the state at a disadvantage for successfully implementing population control measures.
The proposed population-based delimitation exercise has reignited tensions between Tamil Nadu and the Union government, adding to the growing list of conflicts over federalism, taxation, and representation.
Chief Minister MK Stalin has called for an all-party meeting on Wednesday, 5 March, to discuss the potential impact of delimitation, emphasising that Tamil Nadu must not be penalised for its population control success.
The issue is not new—Tamil Nadu and other southern states have been raising concerns since the 1970s, arguing that a population-based seat allocation unfairly reduces their political representation while rewarding states with higher fertility rates.
With the delimitation exercise expected in 2026, the North-South divide in parliamentary strength could widen, fundamentally altering India’s political balance.
The issue of delimitation and seat allocation in India has been a subject of concern, particularly for Tamil Nadu and other southern states. After independence, parliamentary seats were allocated based on population, with adjustments made over the years.
Tamil Nadu, which initially had 41 seats in the Lok Sabha, saw its representation reduced to 39 following the 1976 amendment to the Constitution, which froze seat allocation until 2001 to avoid penalising states that successfully implemented population control measures.
Delimitation in India has historically been conducted based on census data, with significant exercises occurring in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002.
However, the disparity between northern and southern states has grown due to differences in population growth rates.
Southern states, including Tamil Nadu, have effectively implemented family planning policies, resulting in slower population growth, with Tamil Nadu’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR — average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime) standing at 1.4.
In contrast, northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar continue to see high fertility rates, with Uttar Pradesh recording a TFR of 2.4 and Bihar having the highest TFR at 3.0.
If delimitation were conducted solely based on population, northern states would gain a disproportionate number of seats, reducing southern representation in the Lok Sabha.
According to the 2011 Census, Uttar Pradesh had a population of 19.98 crore, Bihar had 10.41 crore, and Tamil Nadu had 7.21 crore. If the upcoming delimitation exercise is based on these numbers, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar stand to gain significantly more seats in the Lok Sabha, while Tamil Nadu and other southern states may face a reduction.
This has led to serious concerns among southern leaders, who argue that states that have successfully implemented population control measures should not be penalised by denying ample political representation.
The constitutional provisions governing delimitation include Article 82, which mandates seat reallocation after each census, and Article 81, which caps the total number of Lok Sabha seats at 550.
The Delimitation Commission, appointed by the President and comprising retired judges and election commissioners, is responsible for redrawing constituency boundaries. While its decisions are final and binding under the Delimitation Commission Act of 1952 and Article 329A, concerns remain about the fairness of the process.
The delimitation exercise planned for 2026 may alter constituencies in southern states, which have consistently adhered to population control measures since the 1970s.
According to the DMK, there is a significant danger looming, as the exercise could impact Tamil Nadu by reducing the number of seats in the state Assembly, Lok Sabha, and Rajya Sabha.
This reduction is likely to weaken Tamil Nadu’s bargaining power, especially in comparison to other states that have not implemented population control measures. The DMK has strongly opposed any delimitation that penalises Tamil Nadu for its successful population policies, arguing that such a move would undermine federalism and further marginalise the state’s voice in national policy making.
According to legal expert Dr G Mohan Gopal, Tamil Nadu could lose up to three Lok Sabha seats post-delimitation, while Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could gain between 10-15 seats each. The total number of Lok Sabha seats may increase to 848 from the current 543, further tilting political power toward the north.
Meanwhile, Stalin has warned that the state could lose nearly 10-12 seats, emphasising the need for strong resistance against any move that undermines the political representation of southern states.
The DMK has warned that a reduction in Tamil Nadu’s parliamentary seats could lead to a decrease in grants from the Union government. These funds may then be redirected to states with higher population growth, even though Tamil Nadu’s tax contributions remain unchanged.
The party also pointed out that if delimitation is carried out without increasing the total number of constituencies, it could alter constituency boundaries, leading to a reduction in both Assembly and parliamentary seats.
This, in turn, would have a cascading effect, diminishing Tamil Nadu’s representation in the Rajya Sabha, while states like Uttar Pradesh could continue to gain more constituencies.
As per the Constitution, the year 2026 marks the point when mandatory delimitation, based on the first census conducted after that year, is set to take effect. Until then, the allocation of seats to the Lok Sabha and the division of states into constituencies will continue to be based on the population figures from the 1971 census, with territorial readjustments made using the 2001 census.
Given the potential implications of this process, discussions on its impact on state representation have gained significance.
Stalin has cautioned southern states about the challenges posed by the upcoming delimitation and urged them to safeguard their political rights. To address these concerns, the Tamil Nadu government has convened an all-party meeting on 5 March, a year ahead of the delimitation deadline.
Speaking to South First, DMK MP and senior lawyer P Wilson underscored the need for collective resistance, asserting that only a united opposition can prevent unfair seat redistribution. He emphasised that a new constitutional amendment is essential to ensure equitable power distribution among states.
Citing the swift reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir, where significant legislative changes were enacted within a day, he warned that Tamil Nadu must be prepared to defend its representation.
Dr Gopal also pointed out that without intervention, Tamil Nadu’s influence in national policy making will diminish significantly, impacting federalism and the state’s ability to negotiate central funds and policies.
However, Tamil Nadu BJP Vice President Narayanan Thirupathi dismissed these concerns, and accused the DMK government of involving in unnecessary fear mongering to cover up its failures.
He argued that similar concerns were raised regarding language policies, but nothing significant came of it. He pointed at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech in October 2023, where he explicitly stated that if delimitation is conducted based on population alone, southern states would face severe consequences. He questioned whether the south would accept such an outcome.
Thirupathi further stated that the Union government has no intention of reducing Tamil Nadu’s representation and that Home Minister Amit Shah had clarified that seat increases will be proportional to current allocations, not based solely on population. He accused the DMK of unnecessarily inciting fear among the public.
Incidentally, Shah chose Coimbatore to issue the clarification.
The debate over delimitation underscores the need for a more equitable approach that upholds the principles of democracy and federalism. Ensuring fair representation for all states while recognising the achievements of population control measures in the South is crucial for maintaining India’s unity and political stability.
Dr Gopal emphasised that without urgent legal and political intervention, Tamil Nadu and other southern states risk losing their rightful voice in India’s democratic framework.
Nilakantan RS, in his book South Vs North, proposed that to address the challenges arising from centralisation, India should consider reducing the powers allocated to the Centre, thereby promoting extreme decentralisation and a more equitable federal structure.
This approach advocates significant devolution of powers down to the panchayat, municipal, and even individual levels.
In line with this perspective, during the 2002 Delimitation Commission’s proceedings, representatives from Tamil Nadu advocated for using panchayats as the base unit for constituency formation instead of revenue villages. This recommendation was aimed at ensuring uniformity across Lok Sabha, Assembly, and local body elections.
Meanwhile, these suggestions for decentralisation are part of a broader discourse on equitable federalism. A more pressing concern is how delimitation may politically disadvantage southern states, including Tamil Nadu. Stalin described the impending delimitation exercise as the “Sword of Damocles” over the heads of southern states, urging leaders from all parties to unite against it.
He reiterated that states like Tamil Nadu, which have diligently followed the Union government’s policies to control population growth, should not face punitive measures during the constituency delimitation.
Wilson stated that the only way to address this issue is by the southern states strongly resisting the delimitation process, transcending political differences. He emphasised the need for a united front to prevent any reduction in political representation for states that have diligently adhered to national development goals.
He insisted that Tamil Nadu and other southern states must utilise all available legal and constitutional measures to challenge any unfair delimitation changes.
(Edited by Majnu Babu).
