Palaniswami and Vijay had spoken after the Karur incident and a concrete progress regarding a potential alliance might emerge after January 2026.
Published Oct 09, 2025 | 11:26 AM ⚊ Updated Oct 09, 2025 | 11:26 AM
TVK chief VIjay and AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami.
Synopsis: A recent remark made by AIADMK chief Edappadi Palaniswami has sparked speculations of an AIADMK-TVK alliance in Tamil Nadu for the 2026 Assembly elections. However, since TVK chief Vijay has always positioned the BJP as the party’s ideological rival, the future of the AIADMK-TVK alliance depends of the BJP-AIADMK alliance.
In April 2025, Union Home Minister and BJP leader Amit Shah announced that the BJP and AIADMK would once again form an alliance in Tamil Nadu for the 2026 Assembly elections as part of the NDA, under the leadership of Edappadi K Palaniswami.
However, from the very beginning, many political commentators have described this as a “forced” and “unnatural” alliance, predicting that it would not last long.
Meanwhile, following the Karur stampede on 27 September that killed 41 people, reports began to circulate that actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) and the AIADMK had initiated discussions about a possible alliance.
Notably, media outlets such as The Print reported that Palaniswami and Vijay had spoken after the Karur incident and that concrete progress regarding a potential alliance might emerge after January 2026.
During a campaign in Kumarapalayam on Wednesday, 8 October, when a few people in the crowd waved the TVK flag, Palaniswami responded enthusiastically, “Look! The flag is flying. The alliance has received Pillaiyar Suzhi ( Symbolic beginning). The alliance led by AIADMK will be a strong one.”
Does this indicate a new turning point in Tamil Nadu’s alliance politics? Let’s look at the timeline.
After the demise of former chief minister and party’s general secretary J Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK grew closer to the BJP. The two parties contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections together but managed to win only one seat.
They continued their alliance in the 2021 Assembly elections as part of the NDA, but the ruling AIADMK was unseated and the DMK came to power.
In 2023, the BJP openly blamed the AIADMK for the alliance’s failure and walked out. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both parties contested separately, and performed poorly.
Relations between their leaders soured further, with both sides trading barbs publicly. Hence, it was a surprise when, in April 2025, the two parties struck a new deal — the NDA was reconstituted in Tamil Nadu with Palaniswami as its leader.
However, many observers claimed the alliance was one of “compulsion,” not conviction. They questioned how long it could last, and whether — if they were to win — it would be an AIADMK government or a coalition government. Even the question of the chief ministerial candidate remained contentious.
Soon after, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) leader TTV Dhinakaran and the O Panneerselvam faction, both expelled from the AIADMK, announced that they would not be part of any alliance led by Palaniswami.
This raised doubts about the durability of the AIADMK–BJP partnership, and into this political equation entered Vijay’s TVK.
Since launching his party, Vijay has repeatedly claimed that the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is now the “second-largest force” in Tamil Nadu, and that the real contest in 2026 will be between TVK and the DMK.
He had so far avoided mentioning the AIADMK — until his 27 September speech in Namakkal, where he harshly criticised the party.
In his address, Vijay said, “The AIADMK, which maintains an opportunistic alliance with the fascist BJP, is acting against the principles of Jayalalithaa and MGR. This is an unnatural alliance.”
He also declared that his party would have no alliance with the “corrupt DMK,” the “fascist BJP,” or the “opportunist AIADMK.”
Vijay went further, appealing indirectly to disillusioned AIADMK supporters, “The true cadres of AIADMK know whom to vote for. They are suffering in silence,” he said, hinting that they should shift their support to him.
Political observers have repeatedly noted that the rise of Vijay’s party poses a serious challenge to the AIADMK.
The AIADMK, they pointed out, is a movement built around the charisma of populist icons like MGR and Jayalalithaa. After their deaths, the party lacks a leader of similar stature — whereas Vijay’s growing popularity and anti-DMK positioning could draw away anti-DMK voters who traditionally backed the AIADMK.
If such votes shift towards Vijay, it could deal a heavy blow to Palaniswami’s party — a fact that, sources said, has caused considerable unease within the AIADMK.
Senior journalist and political commentator Priyan Srinivasan observed that the post-Karur dip in Vijay’s momentum has quietly pleased the AIADMK leadership.
Since announcing his party in February 2024, Vijay has held two major conventions and positioned himself firmly as the primary challenger to the DMK. His core message — that any party allied with TVK will be guaranteed a share of power — has attracted attention.
Political consulting firms such as I-PAC and several smaller agencies that conduct weekly surveys on voter sentiment have reportedly found that Vijay’s popularity has crossed 30 percent, with noticeable growth over recent months, said a source within one such firm.
These survey results are reportedly shared directly with Chief Minister MK Stalin and strategist Sabareesan, the head of Populus Empowerment Network (PEN).
Although Vijay’s ratings reportedly saw a dip after the Karur incident, analysts said it was not a major setback. Interestingly, these surveys revealed that most of Vijay’s support comes from voters who traditionally oppose the DMK — in other words, from the AIADMK’s old base.
To prevent further erosion of its vote bank, AIADMK is now reportedly exploring the possibility of aligning with Vijay — a move seen as more of a necessity than a choice.
After the Karur incident, several journalists and political commentators have publicly suggested that Vijay should ally with the AIADMK or join the NDA.
Even before the BJP–AIADMK alliance was announced, there had been speculation that AIADMK might strike a deal with Vijay’s TVK. Reports suggested that TVK had demanded the deputy chief minister’s post and over 100 seats to contest, but the AIADMK had offered around 60 seats and some key positions instead.
Once the BJP–AIADMK alliance was sealed in April, those discussions went silent — until now.
Following the Karur incident, reports emerged that AIADMK and TVK had resumed informal talks. It is said that Palaniswami and Vijay spoke over the phone for over 30 minutes. Reportedly, Palaniswami assured Vijay of support if the DMK government tried to target him politically.
Sources claim Vijay indicated that he would consider election decisions only after January 2026.
A former AIADMK minister also hinted, “The most crucial political period will start from December. That’s when real talks will happen.”
Priyan said that the AIADMK is deeply worried about Vijay’s growing influence: “Vijay could cut into the anti-DMK vote that would otherwise go to AIADMK. At the same time, he could also attract minority voters who would vote for the DMK but distrust the BJP. So the AIADMK feels threatened on both sides.”
“That’s why the AIADMK wanted to politically slow Vijay down — and the Karur episode unexpectedly helped them. Secretly, AIADMK leaders are enjoying this setback,” he added.
From the beginning, TVK has maintained that any alliance must include a share in governance. However, when the BJP proposed such power-sharing ideas, the AIADMK declared that it alone would lead the government if elected.
Meanwhile, Vijay has consistently branded the BJP as “fascist” and positioned himself ideologically against it. Unless the AIADMK walks out of its alliance with the BJP, there’s little chance of TVK joining hands with it.
“The BJP–AIADMK alliance was already considered fragile, but they’ve grown closer recently. If AIADMK breaks away now, BJP won’t take it lightly — it would spark serious tension,” Priyan noted.
“As of now, both the BJP and the AIADMK need Vijay, but Vijay doesn’t need either of them. He knows that if he allies with AIADMK and they later rejoin the BJP after coming to power, it could damage his credibility. Similarly, if he allies with the BJP now, he’ll lose the anti-BJP vote, which might drift back to DMK. So, Vijay is most likely to contest alone in 2026,” he added.
(Edited by Muhammed Fazil.)
