AIADMK’s vote on Waqf Bill in Rajya Sabha is a crucial test of its political stand

AIADMK’s decision to support, oppose, or abstain could influence the bill’s passage and its future alliance with the BJP.

Subash Chandra Bose

Published Apr 03, 2025 | 3:13 PM ⚊ Updated Apr 03, 2025 | 3:13 PM

Palaniswamy and other AIADMK leaders with Union Minister Amit Shah in Delhi on Tuesday, 25 March.

Synopsis: The Waqf (Amendment) Bill 2025, passed in the Lok Sabha, requires 119 votes to pass in the Rajya Sabha. With the NDA holding 124 seats and the INDIA bloc 88, 24 swing votes, including AIADMK’s 4, are crucial. AIADMK’s decision to support, oppose, or abstain could influence the bill’s passage and its future alliance with the BJP.

The Waqf (Amendment) Bill 2025 is set to enter the Rajya Sabha for voting and discussion after being passed in the Lok Sabha during the early hours of Thursday, 3 April.

The bill, labelled as a draconian law against minorities, is also a crucial test for Tamil Nadu’s AIADMK as its decision to support, oppose, or abstain could influence the bill’s passage and its future alliance with the BJP.

To pass the bill in the 236-member Rajya Sabha, a simple majority is needed, requiring at least 119 votes in favor.

Despite the BJP-led NDA holding a strong position, the final count depends on the number of members present at the time of voting, and each vote is critical.

While the NDA has 124 members (BJP (98), JD(U) (4), NCP (3), TDP (2), JDU(S) (1), Shiv Sena (1), RLD (1), RLMP (1), PMK (1), AGP (1), Tamil Maanila Congress (1), United People’s Party Liberal (1), Republican Party of India (Athawale) (1), two independent members, plus six nominated members) and the INDIA bloc has 88 members (Congress (27), Trinamool Congress (13), DMK (10), and AAP (10)), 24 members from unaligned parties are key swing votes, making each vote critical for the bill’s passage.

Also Read: DMK’s A Raja’s scathing attack on Kiren Rijiju during Waqf bill debate

AIADMK’s dilemma

Among them, a major point of discussion is the AIADMK’s stance. The party holds four key votes, which could significantly influence the outcome.

The other swing votes come from the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) with 7 MPs, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) with 7 MPs, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) with 4 MPs, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with 1 MP, and Mizo National Front (MNF) with 1 MP.

Historically, the AIADMK has positioned itself as a protector of minority rights. In 2023, when it severed ties with the BJP, its leadership stated that aligning with the BJP had cost it minority votes.

Now, with the Waqf Amendment Bill being strongly criticized as anti-Muslim by the opposition, the AIADMK has three potential choices:

Support the bill – This would solidify its alliance with the BJP but could alienate Muslim voters, potentially impacting the party’s electoral prospects.
Oppose the bill – This would reinforce the AIADMK’s pro-minority stance but could strain its ongoing alliance talks with the BJP.
Abstain or walk out – While this would allow AIADMK to avoid taking a direct stance, it would still be perceived as indirect support for the BJP, as absentees reduce the total votes needed for a majority.

With reports indicating that alliance discussions between the BJP and AIADMK are already underway, the AIADMK’s decision will be closely watched, as it could impact not only the bill’s passage but also the party’s political future.

Also Read: AIADMK in denial mode even as Amit Shah confirms alliance talks

(Edited by Sumavarsha)