Poll of polls: Exit polls predict Mahayuti win in Maharashtra, close finish in Jharkhand

Intense campaigning in both states focused on unemployment, rising prices, and regional issues. In Maharashtra, new alliances like Mahayuti and MVA complicated predictions, while Jharkhand witnessed a tight contest between the NDA and JMM-led coalition.

South First Desk

Published Nov 20, 2024 | 9:46 PM ⚊ Updated Nov 20, 2024 | 9:47 PM

Exit polls predict close contests in Maharashtra and Jharkhand ahead of 23 November results

Exit polls predicted a comfortable win for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra, while Jharkhand presented a close battle between the NDA and JMM-Congress alliance.

Polling in both states concluded on Wednesday, 20 November. In Maharashtra with 288 Assembly seats, the Mahayuti alliance—comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction—is predicted to retain power, multiple exit surveys said. 

Three exit polls gave the Mahayuti alliance an estimated 158 seats, above the halfway mark of 145.

Despite predictions of a Mahayuti victory, some exit polls remain more divided. NDTV reported that five out of eight surveys predict a BJP-led alliance win, while three surveys foresee a hung assembly. 

Traditional loyalties seem to be fading in Maharashtra, as voters increasingly focused on individual candidates rather than party affiliations.

This, combined with key electoral battles, such as Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s high-stakes contest against his nephew in Baramati, has kept the outcome uncertain. The results will be announced on 23 November.

Predictions for the NDA (BJP-led alliance)

• Chanakya Strategies predicts 152 to 160 seats for the NDA.
• Dainik Bhaskar forecasts a range of 125 to 140 seats.
• Electoral Edge estimates 118 seats for the NDA.
• Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra predicts between 128 and 142 seats.
• Matrize places the NDA in the range of 150 to 170 seats.
• P-Marq forecasts between 137 and 157 seats.
• Peoples Pulse predicts a much higher estimate of 175 to 195 seats.
• Poll Diary gives seats in the range of 122 to 186 seats.
• Times Now-JVC predicts between 150 and 167 seats.

Predictions for the MVA (Congress-led alliance) 

• Chanakya Strategies estimates the MVA will win between 130 and 138 seats.
• Dainik Bhaskar gives the MVA a range of 135 to 150 seats.
• Electoral Edge predicts 150 seats for the MVA.
• Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra expects between 125 and 140 seats.
• Matrize forecasts a range of 110 to 130 seats for the MVA.
• P-Marq predicts between 126 and 146 seats.
• Peoples Pulse estimates the MVA to secure between 85 and 112 seats.
• Poll Diary gives a range of 69 to 121 seats.
• Times Now-JVC forecasts between 107 and 125 seats for the MVA.

Predictions for Others (OTH) 

• Chanakya Strategies predicts between 6 and 8 seats for smaller parties.
• Dainik Bhaskar forecasts between 20 and 25 seats.
• Electoral Edge estimates 20 seats.
• Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra predicts between 18 and 23 seats.
• Matrize forecasts between 8 and 10 seats.
• P-Marq predicts between 2 and 8 seats.
• Peoples Pulse estimates 7 to 12 seats.
• Poll Diary predicts between 10 and 27 seats.
• Times Now-JVC forecasts between 13 and 14 seats.

Also Read: People’s Pulse Exit Poll predicts Mahayuti government

Jharkhand heading for a close finish

In Jharkhand, the BJP-led NDA is projected to have a narrow lead over the ruling JMM-Congress alliance, with the exit polls showing a close contest.

Three exit polls predicted the NDA securing 45 seats in the 81-member assembly, while the JMM-Congress alliance is expected to win around 33 seats.

With the polling having concluded in two phases on 13 November and 20 November, Jharkhand’s election outcome is expected to be closely contested. The halfway mark in Jharkhand is 41, making it a crucial battleground for both alliances.

Exit poll results pointed to a hard-fought battle for control.

Predictions for the NDA (BJP-led alliance)

• Axis My India forecasts between 17 and 27 seats for the NDA.
• Chanakya Strategies predicts 45 to 50 seats for the NDA.
• Dainik Bhaskar estimates the NDA will win 37 to 40 seats.
• Electoral Edge predicts 32 seats for the NDA.
• Matrize estimates between 42 and 47 seats for the NDA.
• P-Marq forecasts between 31 and 40 seats for the NDA.
• Peoples Pulse predicts the NDA will win 44 to 53 seats.
• Times Now-JVC forecasts 40 to 44 seats for the NDA.
• The aggregate of all exit polls suggests the NDA will win 39 seats.

Predictions for the INDIA alliance (JMM-led coalition)

• Axis My India forecasts the INDIA alliance will win 49 to 59 seats.
• Chanakya Strategies predicts the INDIA alliance will win 35 to 38 seats.
• Dainik Bhaskar estimates the INDIA alliance will win 36 to 39 seats.
• Electoral Edge predicts 42 seats for the INDIA alliance.
• Matrize forecasts the INDIA alliance will win 25 to 30 seats.
• P-Marq estimates 37 to 47 seats for the INDIA alliance.
• Peoples Pulse predicts the INDIA alliance will secure 25 to 37 seats.
• Times Now-JVC forecasts the INDIA alliance will win 30 to 40 seats.
• The aggregate of all exit polls suggests the INDIA alliance will win 38 seats

Predictions for Others (OTH)

• Axis My India estimates 1 to 6 seats for smaller parties.
• Chanakya Strategies predicts 3 to 5 seats for smaller parties.
• Dainik Bhaskar forecasts 0 to 2 seats for others.
• Electoral Edge predicts 7 seats for smaller parties.
• Matrize estimates 1 to 4 seats for others.
• P-Marq forecasts 1 to 6 seats for smaller parties.
• Peoples Pulse estimates 5 to 9 seats for others.
• Times Now-JVC predicts 1 seat for smaller parties.
• The aggregate of all exit polls suggests smaller parties will win 4 seats.

Also Read: VT Rajshekar, the voice of Dalits falls silent

Electoral dynamics 

Both states have witnessed intense campaigning, with issues such as unemployment, rising prices, and regional concerns dominating the discourse. 

In Maharashtra, the rise of new political alliances like Mahayuti and MVA has added complexity to the electoral scenario, making predictions more uncertain. The contest in Jharkhand is similarly tight, with the NDA battling the JMM-led coalition, which has governed the state for the past several years.

While exit polls provide an initial glimpse into the likely outcomes, NDTV reminded viewers that exit polls are not always accurate and can sometimes fail to predict the final results.

(Edited by Ananya Rao).

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