AIMIM faces competition from Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which has attempted to attract young voters in Seemanchal.
Published Sep 20, 2025 | 4:29 PM ⚊ Updated Sep 20, 2025 | 4:29 PM
Asaduddin Owaisi (X)
Synopsis: As Bihar gears up for the 2025 Assembly elections, AIMIM’s rise in Seemanchal threatens to reshape minority politics. Contesting 20–25 seats, it could split Muslim votes, weakening RJD and INDIA bloc while benefiting NDA. With focus on welfare, voter rolls, and empowerment, AIMIM’s role as kingmaker or spoiler will redefine Bihar’s electoral dynamics.
As Bihar prepares for its 2025 Legislative Assembly elections, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), led by Asaduddin Owaisi, has emerged as both a symbol of assertion and a source of division in the state’s political discourse.
The elections, scheduled for October–November before the Assembly’s term expires on November 29, are expected to be fiercely contested, and AIMIM’s presence has added a new dimension to the battle.
At the center of the debate lies the crucial question of whether AIMIM will redefine Bihar’s politics as a kingmaker for minority voices or whether it will remain a spoiler, fragmenting votes and inadvertently aiding the ruling NDA.
Bihar’s 243-member Assembly reflects the state’s deeply layered social and political realities, where even small shifts in community preferences can alter results.
Among these groups, the Muslim population, estimated at 17 to 19 percent of the electorate, plays a decisive role, especially in the Seemanchal region comprising Araria, Katihar, Kishanganj, and Purnia.
Here, Muslims form nearly half the population, making their vote critical in determining outcomes. For decades, this community has largely supported secular parties, particularly the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which, along with Yadav backing, built the famous “MY” coalition.
AIMIM’s rise threatens this arrangement by offering itself as a dedicated voice for Muslim issues and questioning the commitment of mainstream parties.
The turning point came in 2020 when AIMIM formally entered Bihar’s Assembly polls. Contesting selectively in Seemanchal, it shocked many by winning five seats—Amour, Bahadurganj, Jokihat, Kochadhaman, and Baisi.
Though its statewide vote share was only 1.24 percent, the impact was disproportionate. AIMIM’s presence divided Muslim votes in several constituencies, enabling the NDA to secure victories in nearby seats where contests were close.
While four of its MLAs later defected to the RJD, the election revealed growing frustration among Muslim voters, particularly youth, who accused established secular parties of neglecting their concerns. Owaisi used the moment to criticize what he called “token secularism” and began presenting AIMIM as the authentic platform for minority voices.
In 2025, AIMIM is adopting a broader strategy. Instead of a handful of constituencies, it plans to contest 20 to 25 seats across Seemanchal and Muslim-heavy urban areas such as Patna, Gaya, and Darbhanga.
Its campaign focuses on three themes: highlighting the inadequacy of Bihar’s minority welfare budget compared to states like Telangana, raising alarm about voter roll revisions that allegedly target Muslim names, and mobilizing grassroots support through promises of education, employment, and safety.
These issues strongly resonate with first-time voters and marginalized communities who feel that neither the NDA nor the INDIA bloc has delivered meaningful change.
The party’s approach to alliances remains uncertain. In July 2025, its Bihar president Akhtarul Iman suggested AIMIM might contest 6 to 10 seats as part of the INDIA bloc to avoid splitting opposition votes.
Yet, the RJD has shown little interest, fearing AIMIM could weaken its broader social coalition. Protests outside Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Patna residence in September 2025 highlighted the opposition’s discomfort.
If AIMIM is denied space within the INDIA bloc, it appears determined to contest independently, paving the way for triangular contests in many constituencies.
For the RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, AIMIM’s growth is a direct threat. In several Seemanchal seats during 2020, AIMIM polled 15 to 20 percent, substantially cutting into RJD’s base.
Projections by surveys indicate that AIMIM’s independent contest in 2025 could cost the RJD 10 to 15 seats, reducing its tally from 75 in 2020 to around 52.
The Congress, already weak in the state, is vulnerable in Muslim-majority pockets like Kishanganj, where AIMIM’s appeal could cost it 5 to 8 seats. Even the Left parties, which gained ground in 2020, risk losing 2 to 4 constituencies due to overlapping appeals to minority voters.
At the same time, AIMIM faces competition from Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which has attempted to attract young voters in Seemanchal with promises of reform and development.
Yet, in constituencies where identity politics dominates, AIMIM’s rhetoric of minority empowerment appears more persuasive, leaving Kishor’s movement struggling to make a breakthrough. The NDA, by contrast, benefits from AIMIM’s presence. Since its core support base—comprising BJP, JD(U), and LJP voters—draws heavily from Hindu communities, AIMIM poses no direct threat to it.
Instead, it weakens the opposition bloc, ensuring that anti-NDA votes are divided. Projections currently suggest the NDA could secure between 136 and 150 seats with a 46 to 50 percent vote share, comfortably above the majority mark of 122.
Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc, weakened by internal contradictions and the challenge posed by AIMIM, risks falling to as low as 38 or 39 seats. Together, AIMIM and Jan Suraaj are expected to capture around 11 to 12 percent of votes, much of it siphoned from the opposition’s base.
Seemanchal remains at the heart of AIMIM’s ambitions. With 24 Assembly constituencies, the region’s chronic underdevelopment and sense of neglect provide fertile ground for AIMIM’s message.
While its influence outside Seemanchal is limited, even small vote shares in urban areas such as Patna City or Darbhanga could play spoiler in closely contested races. Analysts believe AIMIM could realistically win 3 seats in 2025, modest in absolute terms but significant enough to alter opposition calculations.
The reactions to AIMIM’s rise are deeply polarised. Supporters view it as a genuine platform finally prioritizing Muslim concerns, unlike parties that use the community as a vote bank without addressing its challenges. Critics dismiss it as a “vote-cutter,” arguing that AIMIM indirectly strengthens the BJP.
On social media, the divide is visible: hashtags like #VoteKatwa trend alongside messages hailing Owaisi as the “Voice of Seemanchal.” The RJD and Congress continue to brand AIMIM as the BJP’s “B-team,” but Owaisi has countered by highlighting his consistent opposition to the NDA and his criticism of policies like the Citizenship Amendment Act and voter list revisions.
Beyond the immediate numbers, AIMIM’s rise points to a deeper churn in Bihar’s minority politics. Its emphasis on welfare allocations, representation, and systemic bias has exposed vulnerabilities in the INDIA bloc’s traditional hold on Muslim voters.
At the same time, its reliance on identity-driven mobilization raises fears of deepening polarization and weakening communal harmony. The experience of 2020 already demonstrated AIMIM’s ability to complicate the RJD’s pursuit of power, and a similar outcome in 2025 could again benefit the NDA.
The 2025 Assembly elections will therefore be a defining moment for AIMIM. If it manages to consolidate its presence and strike alliances, it could evolve into a kingmaker, reshaping Bihar’s political order.
But if it contests independently and merely divides opposition votes, it may remain confined to the role of spoiler, with limited seats but significant influence on outcomes.
Either way, AIMIM has already forced mainstream parties to re-examine their approach toward minority voters and has ensured that Bihar’s politics cannot ignore its presence. As the state moves toward the polls, the answer to whether AIMIM becomes a kingmaker or spoiler will shape not just the immediate results but also the future of minority representation and inclusive governance in Bihar.
– Author is director at Peoples Pulse Research Organisation
(Views are personal)
