India must remain adaptable and maintain its role as a key partner in Bangladesh’s development. The new government’s policies will be critical in shaping the future of Bangladesh's international relations and its position within South Asian geopolitics.
Published Sep 17, 2024 | 10:59 AM ⚊ Updated Sep 17, 2024 | 10:59 AM
The recent ouster of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh's former prime minister who had ruled since January 2009, marks a significant shift. Pictured, Sheikh Hasina with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New York in September 2020. (PMO)
For India, Bangladesh is not just a neighbour but a crucial ally in its Act East Policy, aimed at strengthening ties with Southeast Asia.
The strategic importance of Bangladesh is underscored by its location near the Siliguri Corridor — a narrow, 60 km long, and 20-22 km wide strip that connects India’s northeastern states to the rest of the country.
This corridor is vital for India as it is a key chokepoint, often called the “chicken neck.” The development of transport links, such as the Kolkata-Tongi-Akhaura and Agartala routes, which traverse Bangladesh, play a critical role in securing this corridor.
A stable and cooperative Bangladesh is essential for maintaining these vital connections.
Moreover, insurgent groups in Northeast India often find refuge in neighboring countries, including Bangladesh. Effective management of these insurgencies is dependent on maintaining strong diplomatic ties with Bangladesh.
The recent surge in Rohingya migrants, escaping from Myanmar, poses challenges for both Bangladesh and India. A stable Bangladeshi government is crucial in controlling migration flows and ensuring regional stability.
Economically, Bangladesh is an important market for Indian goods. Any instability within Bangladesh could negatively impact demand for Indian exports. Growing anti-India sentiments among younger generations in Bangladesh could jeopardize bilateral relations.
Hence, it is in India’s interest to foster a stable and cooperative Bangladesh.
China’s growing ambitions in South Asian geopolitics have shifted the regional balance, particularly concerning Bangladesh’s strategic position in the Bay of Bengal.
The Bay of Bengal is a critical zone for China due to its strategic proximity to the Strait of Malacca, a major shipping route vital for global trade. The strait, linking the Andaman Sea to the Java Sea, is pivotal for Chinese trade, with about 25 percent of global trade passing through it.
China’s concern over potential Indian control over this route has led it to seek alternative pathways, making Bangladesh a significant player in its strategy.
China’s failure to secure a route through Pakistan’s Belt and Road Initiative has intensified its interest in Bangladesh. By establishing strong ties with Bangladesh, China can potentially use Bangladeshi ports and routes as alternatives, if the Strait of Malacca is obstructed.
Moreover, China’s strategy to encircle India involves exerting influence over Bangladesh, which could be used to disrupt the crucial Siliguri Corridor, thus impacting India’s northeastern states.
For the USA, Bangladesh represents a critical component in the broader geopolitical landscape of South Asia. The shifting balance of power between India and China makes Bangladesh a strategic player. Additionally, Bangladesh is a significant supplier of garments to the USA,
making it an important economic partner.
The USA has a vested interest in stabilizing Myanmar and addressing the Rohingya crisis, an issue Bangladesh is deeply involved in. The USA’s support could be crucial for Bangladesh in managing this humanitarian challenge and reducing its dependency on China.
With the experiences of Sri Lanka and Pakistan in mind, Bangladesh is cautious about taking loans and participating in Chinese initiatives. It sees India as a more reliable partner, particularly in areas such as electricity, trade, and water management through the Joint Rivers Commission.
Looking ahead
The recent ouster of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s former prime minister who had ruled since January 2009, marks a significant shift. The escalation began with student protests and has been linked to influences from the USA, China, and Pakistan. As Bangladesh transitions to a
new government, its foreign policy, and regional alignment will be under scrutiny.
In this evolving scenario, India must remain adaptable and maintain its role as a key partner in Bangladesh’s development. The new government’s policies will be critical in shaping the future of Bangladesh’s international relations and its position within South Asian geopolitics.
As such, maintaining a balanced approach with India, China, and the USA will be essential for Bangladesh to navigate its complex geopolitical landscape effectively.
(Colonel Pankaj Narayan (Retd), an IIT-Kharagpur alumnus, is a seasoned telecommunications professional with over 35 years of experience in the Indian Army, specializing in Telecom Spectrum Management, RF Planning, and Network Rollout. He has spearheaded major IT/Telecom projects and represented India in international spectrum management forums. Views are personal. Edited by Majnu Babu)
