Bihar’s elections are never just local. A 2025 NDA victory would bolster BJP’s national dominance and reaffirm Nitish Kumar’s relevance despite his image setbacks. An MGB win could revive the INDIA bloc and position Tejashwi Yadav as a national figure.
Published Apr 13, 2025 | 3:00 PM ⚊ Updated Apr 13, 2025 | 3:00 PM
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party spring a surprise in the upcoming Assembly polls? Or will it be Tejashwi Yadav’s youth connect or Nitish Kumar's experience?
Synopsis: As Bihar stands at a crossroads. The 2025 Assembly elections will test whether caste remains the ultimate political currency or if new narratives can break through. The stakes are clear: the outcome will shape not just Bihar’s governance but also India’s broader political trajectory.
As Bihar gears up for the Assembly elections a few months away, the state is once again at the heart of India’s complex political drama. With its 243-seat Assembly representing over 13 crore people, Bihar remains a crucible of caste-based politics, where alliances, rivalries, and emerging players are setting the stage for a high-stakes contest.
The poll outcome will not only shape the state’s future but also carry significant implications for national politics. For every reader, understanding Bihar’s current dynamics marked by shifting coalitions, caste equations, and new political experiments offers a window into the challenges and aspirations of one of India’s most pivotal states.
The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising Janata Dal [United] (JD(U), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), faces a formidable challenge from the Opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), a coalition of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties.
Since the 2020 elections, coalition dynamics have shifted significantly. The Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) has moved from the NDA to the MGB, while the LJP, which contested independently in 2020, has rejoined the NDA.
The Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) has merged with JD(U). Adding intrigue, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party has entered the fray, promising caste-neutral governance, while the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) retains influence over minority voters after securing five seats in 2020.
At the center of this storm is Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, a veteran whose political adaptability has kept him relevant for nearly two decades. His frequent alliance switches partnering with RJD and Congress in 2015, rejoining BJP in 2017, aligning with MGB in 2022, and returning to the NDA before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls have cemented his reputation as a survivor.
However, these flip-flops have dented his credibility. In 2020, JD(U)’s tally dropped to 43 seats compared to BJP’s 74, signaling cracks in his dominance. As Nitish leads the NDA into 2025, questions about his leadership and the alliance’s cohesion loom large.
The BJP, buoyed by recent victories in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi, is leveraging its organisational strength in Bihar. However, internal tensions within the NDA are palpable. JD(U)’s support for the Waqf (Amendment) Bill has alienated some Muslim voters, a traditional support base.
Meanwhile, the BJP’s growing dominance is evident its leaders now hold 21 of 36 ministerial positions, and recent cabinet expansions favored BJP exclusively. While Nitish remains the alliance’s face, BJP’s hints that the chief minister will be decided post-election have sparked unease within JD(U). The latter is pushing for Nitish to be named the official chief minister candidate to avoid voter confusion.
BJP’s ideological backbone, the RSS is also intensifying its grassroots efforts in Bihar. After a strained relationship impacted the 2024 Lok Sabha results, the RSS is now energising BJP’s cadre, with visits by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and top BJP leaders signalling a strategic focus. Yet, ideological differences persist JD(U) and RJD backed the 2023 caste census, while BJP and RSS opposed it, complicating the NDA’s unity given JD(U)’s reliance on backward caste support.
The MGB, led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, is banking on its 2020 performance, where it emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats. At 35, Tejashwi is rebranding RJD, moving away from its past associations with corruption and focusing on jobs and development to appeal to younger voters. His promise of one million jobs has struck a chord, but challenges remain.
The MGB’s Muslim-Yadav base, while strong, may not suffice in a fragmented electoral landscape. Internal coordination with Congress and Left parties is shaky, and Congress’s declining national appeal limits its ability to attract upper-caste voters. To win, Tejashwi must broaden his coalition’s reach beyond traditional strongholds.
Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is a wildcard, promising clean governance and sidestepping caste politics. Targeting urban, middle-class youth frustrated with traditional parties, Kishor’s campaign has generated curiosity but faces skepticism in a state where caste remains a key voting determinant. While Jan Suraaj secured third-place finishes in three of four constituencies in the November 2024 bypolls, its ability to convert admiration into votes and whether it will eat into NDA or MGB’s share remains uncertain.
The 2023 caste census underscores Bihar’s electoral reality: caste is king. Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) form 36.01% of the population, Other Backward Classes (OBCs) 27.13%, Scheduled Castes (SCs) 19.65%, and Scheduled Tribes (STs) 1.68%, collectively accounting for 84.47% of voters. Upper castes Brahmins (3.65%), Rajputs (3.45%), and Bhumihars (2.86%) make up 15.52%. Among OBCs, Yadavs (14.26%) dominate, followed by Koeris (4.21%). Muslims, at 18%, are a pivotal bloc, with MGB securing 76% of their votes in 2020 against NDA’s 5%. Nitish’s Lav-Kush strategy (uniting Kurmis and Kushwahas) bolsters JD(U)’s rural base, while RJD’s MY-BAAP formula (Muslims, Yadavs, Bahujans, Upper Castes, Women, Poor) faltered in 2024, winning only nine Lok Sabha seats.
For Bihar’s residents, the election is about more than caste arithmetic. Urban areas credit the NDA for better roads and electricity, but rural voters grapple with flooding, agrarian distress, and unemployment. RJD’s promises of loan waivers and jobs resonate with the youth, while Nitish’s welfare schemes, like the liquor ban, appeal to women.
Jan Suraaj’s focus on education and healthcare attracts a niche urban audience but struggles in rural areas without caste-based mobilisation. The BJP’s digital campaign gives it an edge, though low literacy and digital penetration limit its reach.
Bihar’s elections are never just local. A 2025 NDA victory would bolster BJP’s national dominance and reaffirm Nitish’s relevance despite his image setbacks. An MGB win could revive the INDIA bloc and position Tejashwi as a national figure.
As Bihar stands at this crossroads, the 2025 elections will test whether caste remains the ultimate political currency or if new narratives can break through. The stakes are clear: the outcome will shape not just Bihar’s governance but also India’s broader political trajectory.
Will Nitish’s experience prevail, Tejashwi’s youth connect, or Kishor’s idealism surprise? The countdown has begun, and Bihar’s verdict will echo far beyond its borders.
(Political analyst and commentator R Dileep Reddy is the Director, People’s Pulse. The Former Information Commissioner of undivided Andhra Pradesh, he had served ‘Sakshi’ as its Executive Editor. Views are personal. Edited by Majnu Babu).
