The wave of triumphs in state elections held in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Delhi that showed the BJP in a strong light may not extend across the country.
Published Jun 30, 2025 | 9:00 AM ⚊ Updated Jun 30, 2025 | 9:00 AM
Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Synopsis: Narendra Modi and BJP are set to face immense challenges in the coming days on several fronts. Things are looking tough on the foreign policy front and the recent assembly by-election results showed that the Opposition is not as weak as it is made out to be by a loud cabal of propagandists.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a knack for bouncing back from difficulties, managing his image, and above all, converting challenges into opportunities by a deft repackaging of whatever he has. With the kind of aura he carries, it takes some extra effort and deep search to take stock of the ground reality he faces beyond the postures, propaganda, and political claims of his glassy-eyed fan club.
After a hard look at recent developments, I am tempted to say that Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are set to face immense challenges in the coming days on several fronts. However, the strong point is that things are looking good for the Indian economy after recent interest cuts and a global context in which, despite claims by the opposition of large-scale unemployment and an agrarian crisis, there is no widespread groundswell of protests or disenchantment.
However, you never say never in democratic politics.
Fresh from watching the Leeds Test between the Indian cricket team and the England cricket team, I would say the BJP is now best described as the Backfoot Janata Party. I see straws in the wind that suggest that the party, despite its deep pockets and the strong organisational stewardship provided by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, will have to struggle in the coming days, because things have come down to deliverables that differ from state to state and election to the next.
It is no wonder that Modi wants a One-Nation-One-Election deal that would take some pressure off his back.
First up, on the foreign policy front, things are looking tough despite the strong action by India’s armed forces in Operation Sindoor conducted in May following the Pahalgam terror attack in April. I have described the operation as a military success but a diplomatic setback because geopolitically, there are few friends left for India when it comes to support for the cross-border bombings to counter cross-border terrorism.
This is because, as astute analysts have pointed out, in the idioms of international diplomacy, some of the issues related to the Kashmir problem are considered tricky.
Modi successfully re-directed the diplomatic setback following President Donald Trump’s open praise for Pakistan (followed by unusual White House hospitality to its Islamist army chief, Asim Munir) by sending out an all-party delegation led by Congress maverick Shashi Tharoor across the world.
I would say the BJP needed him more than he needed the BJP to heal some of the diplomatic wounds. The BJP’s talent shortage in matters of governance is undeniable.
The latest episode in the geopolitical soap opera, in which India’s attempts to condemn the Pahalgam terror attack in a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation joint statement failed, shows that the China-based SCO, Pakistan, and the US alike are in no mood to accept India’s claims or postures. Given the BJP supporters’ dream to see India as a “Vishwaguru” (global thought leader), that is most certainly a backfoot situation.
To add insult to injury, the draft statement at the meeting of SCO defence ministers mentioned the problems faced by Pakistan in Balochistan, a brownie point for Islamabad that accuses India of interference in the province that India denies. India’s refusal to sign the document highlights the BJP’s isolation in such forums, although the SCO is a China-led body.
At home, the recent assembly by-election results showed that the Opposition is not as weak as it is made out to be by a loud cabal of propagandists.
Results showed that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won one seat each in Punjab as well as Modi’s home state of Gujarat, while the Congress (Kerala) and Trinamool Congress (West Bengal) won one each. The BJP won only one among five seats on offer.
Up next, Bihar and Tamil Nadu Assembly elections are looming large.
From all indications, a fifth consecutive term for BJP-backed Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar looks uncertain. In any case, the BJP is leaning on his Janata Dal (United) at the Centre as well as the state. This is a point that gets lost in the bluster that Modi supporters are so good at.
Let us not forget that in conceding to a caste census as part of the forthcoming national census, the BJP has effectively diluted its own ideological roots in the RSS that tends to gloss over caste-related issues.
In Tamil Nadu, the BJP’s shaky alliance with the Opposition AIADMK looks like a shotgun wedding as it gropes in the dark to mix its Hindutva-style cultural narrative with the Dravidian parties’ penchant for socialist welfarism and Tamil identity.
That is a strange cocktail for the BJP to follow in a state where economic growth and political awareness are both at high levels. The ruling DMK, led by Chief Minister MK Stalin, is certainly holding strong despite the BJP’s attempts to fan an anti-incumbency mood.
Even in Maharashtra, the recent sugar cooperative elections show that the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) group led by Ajit Pawar is no pushover in state politics. The BJP cannot write him off as an ally despite a bitter old rivalry.
The wave of triumphs in state elections held in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Delhi that showed the BJP in a strong light may not extend across the country.
On the whole, the BJP is now slinking back to coalition dynamics after a decade that saw “Moditva” as an overarching label stuck on its head. It now has to win one election at a time.
If there is any lesson for the BJP from the Leeds Test, it lies in the fact that solid performances from star players may not be enough to win a game if the overall ground reality and Opposition efforts are tough.
I often remind myself that India, now the most populous country on the planet, is going through a profound demographic transition that throws up huge political problems. Surprises lurk in every election as the young and the restless, who constitute the better part of the 144-crore population, raise their aspirations and shift their voting patterns.
Half of Indians are now below the age of 28, and roughly a third of the total population is in the 15 to 30 age group.
On the economic front, a planned trade deal with Donald Trump’s America that is expected soon may be a tough one for Modi’s negotiators if the US president’s current statements are any indication. The US wants India to open up the agriculture sector — and that potentially means political trouble from farmers’ groups.
All this, of course, does not mean that the Opposition Congress, shakily led by Rahul Gandhi, is bouncing back. The Congress is moving gingerly towards a national coalition with not much to display after its victory in the Telangana Assembly elections. If the BJP is on the backfoot, the Congress is facing a difficult situation with partners in most states. But that’s another story.
(Views are personal. Edited by Muhammed Fazil.)
