Maharashtra, an industrialised state with a politically aware lot of rural communities, will not be easily swayed by BJP's Hindutva ideology. Economic issues and upward social mobility are crucial factors that drive politics in the state.
Published Dec 09, 2024 | 12:06 PM ⚊ Updated Dec 09, 2024 | 12:06 PM
Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis.
Maharashtra is famous for its Tamasha folk theatre. We will probably witness its political equivalent in the coming months, presumably with some wriggles, squiggles, and giggles.
On the face of it, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance has won a convincing victory in the recent state assembly elections. But then, as they say in Bollywood: “Picture abhi baaki hai mere dost.”(The movie is far from over, my friend).
What happened after the poll verdict in Maharashtra politics reminds me of an old cricket joke about a bowler who has to deal with an unfair umpire. The umpire repeatedly rejects convincing appeals for leg-before-wicket. The frustrated bowler then takes his customary run-up with a flourish, uproots the stumps, and appeals aloud to the umpire: “Howzzat?”.
“Can’t you see he is clean bowled?” the umpire replies.
“I know he is bowled,” the bowler says with a smirk. “But is he out?”
Taking a leaf out of this bowler’s style, I ask: “I know we have an alliance in power in Maharashtra. But will we have a government?”
Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde’s stage-managed disappearance act after the results in a trip to his native village, reports of his illness, statements from his party colleagues, and signals from his son Shrikant leave virtually no doubt that he is an unhappy or at least careful man in a role reversal with BJP chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, who now occupies the chair that Shinde held in a victory run.
We have to wait another ten days for cabinet formation, we are told, even as the Shinde camp says he must have the home portfolio. Shinde is bound to feel uneasy in an equal-but-unequal role as deputy chief minister if the Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar) group’s honcho Ajit Pawar gets the finance portfolio, considered equal to the home ministry.
Some loud thinking: In a game of wheels-within-wheels, is there a Shinde-Fadnavis axis to keep Ajit Pawar away from the crucial finance portfolio?
Remember, Ajit Pawar had walked quickly out of a major cabinet meeting loaded with key proposals weeks before the assembly elections in what was seen as an act of subtle dissent.
We will know when we know, but what we know now for sure is that this government is not going to be easy to run as ambitions and ideological differences simmer beneath the surface. Don’t be taken in by smooth statements, hugs, and smiles in photo opportunities so common in coalition politics. When the time comes, the smiles may turn to frowns.
Instead of merely discussing portfolio-related issues we need to look at the ground realities of Maharashtra politics. I, for one, do not believe Ajit Pawar has convincingly defeated his uncle Sharad Pawar-led faction of NCP even if his party has triumphed.
The subtext in the verdict is that the Pawar vs Pawar game shifted in favour of the nephew, thanks to the mighty organisational muscle of the BJP and its alter-ego Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, besides welfare schemes led by Shinde. More important, Shinde as well as the Pawar family are part of the restive Maratha clan playing for high stakes in the state’s politics.
Unlike Dalits or minority Muslims, the Marathas do not represent a typical vote bank in which loyalty to the leaders is reasonably assured. In agriculture-related issues, government jobs, and much else, the Marathas keep their community leaders on their toes. The jostling for gains and jockeying for position never really ends but goes through ebbs and flows linked to demands and political events such as elections.
Maratha jobs quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil said a day after Fadnavis was sworn in as chief minister that the cabinet had a month to decide on the quota issue for Marathas, which is being fiercely opposed by rival caste groups in the state. It is a delicate balance. Sharad Pawar may fish in troubled waters if a decision — or an act of drift —presents a political opportunity.
The clock is already ticking for Fadnavis, a Brahmin chief minister in a Maratha-dominated polity. He has to walk a tightrope to keep his territory.
Given the uneasy equation in the past that Fadnavis has had with Ajit Pawar, who he has openly accused of rampant corruption in the past, this may not be the stable government that Maharashtra’s voters might have hoped for — though you could argue that the mess
would have been worse had the rival Maha Vikas Akadi alliance led by the Congress been voted to power.
What is critical is that Maharashtra, an industrialised state with a politically aware lot of rural communities, is not one easily swayed by BJP’s Hindutva ideology though the party did play that card to cement its vote. Economic issues and upward social mobility are crucial factors that drive politics in the state.
Support prices for farm goods are as important as job quotas, not to speak of handout allowances for women that the BJP has successfully bet on despite fiscal worries.
It is difficult for me to imagine Ajit Pawar without the finance portfolio and even more difficult to imagine Fadnavis leading a government in which the crucial home and finance ministries would be led by allies from two different parties. The chief minister will be mocked and taunted as one subject to backseat driving, or worse, be seen as leading a watered-down version of the real deal. Something’s gotta give.
All the glittering Bollywood stars and all the billionaire industrialists who were present at the chief minister’s swearing-in ceremony, much like the proverbial king’s men and horses, cannot easily hold together what appears like a Humpty-Dumpty Sarkar.
What matters at the deeper level is the unease that the BJP triggers inside any coalition partner. The delicate irony is that strong leaders don’t need allies while weak or affable leaders are more trusted by allies in a coalition. You only have to look back at the history of governments led by prime ministers PV Narasimha Rao, HD Deve Gowda, and Manmohan Singh to get an idea of how coalitions work better
with lightweight heads than heavy-hitting, outspoken ones.
A tame Fadnavis may thus work better for Mahayuti than the old war horse that he is. Given the BJP’s avowed culture of doing what the “leadership” wants (in this case, the Amit Shah-Narendra Modi combine), the Maharashtra chief minister may be either asked to lie low, as he has done in recent years, or be kicked up to head the BJP at the national level as a replacement for party president JP Nadda.
With Modi and Shah effectively running the show, all the BJP wants is a party president who is articulate and outspoken but otherwise a fiercely loyal bureaucrat. Devendra Fadnavis fits that bill rather well.
However, finding a Maharashtrian face to replace him as chief minister will bring its own challenges.
Elections to India’s biggest municipal body, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) are expected early next year. For Shinde, it would be a crucial one to show his power as well as measure and dole out support for his Shiv Sena cadres who, unlike that of the BJP, are an ambitious lot. Alongside the Maratha jobs quota, the BMC poll would figure in the political diary of the state soon after a cabinet was formed.
Whatever the details, expect the unexpected. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal touch and Amit Shah’s famous organisational ability will both be put to the test in the coming months.
Grab a bag of popcorn to watch some political theatre in Maharashtra. Better still, get a load of Mumbai’s bhelpuri.
(The writer is a senior journalist and commentator who has worked for Reuters, The Economic Times, Business Standard, and Hindustan Times. He tweets on X as @madversity. Views are personal. Edited by Majnu Babu).
