Published Apr 02, 2026 | 4:38 PM ⚊ Updated Apr 02, 2026 | 4:39 PM
KC Venugopal, VD Satheesan, Ramesh Chennithala
Synopsis: The situation is unique to Congress. No other party in Kerala can claim to have a list of chief minister aspirants all belonging to the Nair community. In short, Congress is the best bet for a Nair chief minister in Kerala after 25 years. Yet, the party does not have the consolidated support of the Nair community.
In a week, Kerala would have voted for its new government. In the run-up to the 9 April Assembly elections, parties are making last-ditch attempts to consolidate their votes.
One particular community in Kerala has now become the focus of a tug of war between the Congress-led UDF and the BJP-led NDA.
For a quarter of a century now, Kerala has not had a chief minister from its foremost socially forward Nair community. The last chief minister of the state from the Nair community was EK Nayanar (1996 to 2001 in office).
As things stand today, Rajeev Chandrasekhar — a Nair — is the BJP state president and Suresh Gopi, MoS in the Union cabinet and the BJP’s lone MP from Kerala, is also a Nair.
Leaders from the Nair community form the frontline leadership of Congress in Kerala. From VD Satheesan to KC Venugopal, Shashi Tharoor to Ramesh Chennithala, Nairs dominate the frontline leadership of Congress in Kerala, just as they dominate the list of chief minister post aspirants.
This situation is unique to Congress in this election. No other party in Kerala can claim to have a list of chief minister aspirants all belonging to the Nair community. In short, Congress is the best bet for a Nair chief minister in Kerala after 25 years. Yet, the party does not have the consolidated support of the Nair community.
“We expect to fare very well in the Malabar region, central Kerala seats, including in districts like Ernakulam and Thrissur, because of Nair community support, but there is a gap in districts like Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam, which we will work towards fixing. Congress’s primary leadership in Kerala is comprised of Nair leaders, yet the community has not consolidated behind the party fully,” an AICC Secretary In-Charge of Kerala elections told South First.
Various estimates put the Nair community, with all its sub-groups, at just under 15% of Kerala’s total population. For a community that is deeply influential and entrenched in the power play of Kerala’s politics, the community has been waiting for one of its own to lead the state.
In Kerala, where entire villages pledge their allegiance to a political ideology (sometimes literally by blood), estimating voter choices by caste or community identity may seem futile, yet there are patterns of preference.
Political convention in Kerala suggests that the Backward Classes community of Ezhavas form the biggest chunk of LDF’s core vote base. Minorities (Muslims and Christians) and other marginalised groups make up the core vote bloc of Congress-led UDF.
For decades, the socially forward Nair community was vertically split between the two parties, with a slight edge to UDF. Things changed with the emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Kerala. Election after election, the Nair community has shown more and more electoral support to the BJP — a recurring pattern with socio-politically dominant castes in other states as well.
Congress’s internal survey, sources suggest, shows that a majority of the Nair community is backing the BJP, despite the saffron party’s slim chances of winning more than single-digit seats in the state. Congress-led UDF is emerging as the second most preferred party for the community, and LDF, the third.
“The anti-Muslim rhetoric fuelling communal politics, as well as the dominant communities’ pattern of switching to the BJP as a political alternative, has led to a split in the Nair community votes. Polarisation beats consolidation,” a Congress-ruled state’s minister, who is supervising the election process in Kerala, told South First.
Nair leaders of the Congress in Kerala, however, are confident that the community will rally behind them when it’s time to cast the ballot. Their confidence stems from the fact that Nair Service Society (NSS), the single-most influential community organisation, pulled out of an “alliance” with SNDP – another influential Hindu community organisation centred around Ezhavas. The attempt to bridge the gap between the two organisations was seen as a backdoor tactic of the BJP to consolidate “Hindu votes”, but the attempt fell through.
The recently concluded local body election in Kerala has hit political parties with a reality check that every vote matters. In Kerala’s election to the 140-seat Assembly, a small shift in vote share may mean the difference between a landslide victory and losing by a whisker.
Considering that the LDF under Pinarayi Vijayan’s two terms has accumulated anti-incumbency built up over a decade, the BJP’s baby steps may not suffice to win a mandate, and Congress’s incumbent front-line leadership is filled with Nairs, the socially forward and politically influential community’s chance at having “their CM” is ripe, but that simply isn’t cutting it.
(Edited by Majnu Babu).
