Chandrababu Naidu seems to be trying to bite off more than he could chew if his statements of infusing new strength into Telangana TDP are any indication.
Published Aug 31, 2024 | 4:00 PM ⚊ Updated Aug 31, 2024 | 4:00 PM
File photo of Chandrababu Naidu at an election rally. (X)
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu’s desire to return to power in Telangana may remain a will-o’-the-wisp forever.
While it is common knowledge that any political party would flourish if the leader attempted to fortify its presence in the state where it is strong, if he tries to reach out to the areas where he has no presence, he may end up losing both.
This is because the inability to influence in a region where one is weak might have a cascading effect on the area where he is strong.
The leader should know that if he cannot invest a major part of his time in a region or state where he is not strong, the entire exercise will turn out to be futile.
Chandrababu Naidu in a similar fashion, seems to be trying to bite off more than he could chew if his statements of infusing new strength into TDP in Telangana are any indication. The statements make one wonder whether he is daydreaming.
Chandrababu Naidu’s comments at a party meeting at NTR Trust Bhavan in Hyderabad recently have come more as a surprise than kindling interest. He had said: “I will infuse new vigour into the veins of the youth to make the party strong. It is not the seniority of a leader but the degree of his acceptance by the people is what all that matters.”
These comments raise the question of whether there is any scope for the party to regain its strength in Telangana.
If one goes by the recent history, it looks as though it is a daunting task because the very nature of Telangana’s psyche is in conflict with Naidu’s aspirations.
In Telangana, there is no political vacuum for the TDP to fill in. The BRS, though out of power now, is still a major party and is organizationally very sound. It has been able to confront the ruling Congress on almost every issue.
There have been no instances in any state where a second regional party could gain traction at the expense of the one already entrenched and fighting a ruling national party.
National parties had long ago become irrelevant in Tamil Nadu where several Dravidian parties are active and strong.
In Andhra Pradesh, where two regional parties— TDP and YSRCP — have been engaged in a fierce battle for political space, the national parties could not get any toe hold.
Viewed in this context the TDP may not get any traction in Telangana with BRS still remaining a major force.
One may raise the instance of Delhi-based Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) capturing power in Punjab, but one should keep in mind that Delhi cannot be considered a full-fledged state.
Similarly in Uttarakhand, which had been carved out of Uttar Pradesh, there is no place for Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samajwadi Party.
Similar is the fate of RJD and JD(U) in Jharkhand which had been formed out of Bihar. Akali Dal and AAP in Haryana which was taken out of Punjab are in a similar state. They may be operating there but their influence is marginal. The same applies for TDP too in Telangana.
The TDP, YSRCP and BRS had declared themselves as national parties for their existence and relevance. But they are not national parties in the strict sense of the term, as mere contesting in elections in more than one state is not enough.
They should be able to get a specific percentage of votes and seats to qualify as national parties. As they do not satisfy this criterion, the Election Commission also considers them as regional parties only.
After the division of the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh, the TDP and YSRCP won a few seats in the 2014 elections, but they did not grow further. Even the few who won the elections subsequently joined the then-ruling BRS.
After the 2014 elections, the YSRCP did not contest in any polls in Telangana. Having lost the elections in Andhra Pradesh, the YSRCP focused solely on the state and won the elections in 2019.
However, the TDP contested several elections in Telangana between 2014 and 24. The results showed that the party was on a downhill journey.
In 2014, the TDP contested 72 seats in Telangana Assembly elections in alliance with the BJP and won 15 seats with a 25 percent vote share. In the simultaneous Lok Sabha elections, TDP won only Malkajgiri Lok Sabha seat, out of the nine seats it had contested.
Of the 15 TDP MLAs, 12 legislators and the lone MP joined the BRS in 2016. In the elections to the GHMC in 2016, the TDP won only one seat though it had gained 13 percent vote share.
Chandrababu Naidu, who was in power in Andhra Pradesh between 2014-19, contested Assembly elections in Telangana in 2018 by teaming up with Congress, which came as a surprise since TDP was founded on “anti-Congressism.”
The TDP which contested 14 seats in 2018 gained only 3.5 percent vote share and won only two seats.
In 2023, the party had decided against contesting in the Assembly elections in Telangana. The party cadres, however, did not relish the idea.
Party Telangana president Kasani Gnaneswar resigned from the party in protest and joined the BRS. This is not the first time that the leaders left the TDP.
A Revanth Reddy, who was the leader of the Telugu Desam Legislature Party (TDLP), joined the Congress in 2017, subsequently becoming the chief minister of the state.
In fact, desertions from the TDP began prior to the 2018 elections. When Telangana TDP’s first president L Ramana joined the BRS, Revanth Reddy made a stinging comment against KCR.
He had said: “How can KCR say he would empty the TDP in Telangana? Does he think TDP is a bottle which he can empty sitting in his farmhouse?” But what KCR had said came true.
Some people say that if any prominent person in the Nara or NTR family takes the reins of the Telangana party, it may have a future. But it is doubtful.
Nandamuri Suhasini, who contested on a TDP ticket from Kukatpally, could not win the election despite a horde of NTR family members and Chandrababu Naidu campaigning for her.
TDP sources say that Naidu is eyeing the ensuing municipal elections in Hyderabad. It has become a practice for Naidu to say that he would revive the party in Telangana whenever he comes to power in Andhra Pradesh. This is because Naidu does not want to lose the TDP sympathisers in Hyderabad who keep the party flushed with funds.
The TDP leaders may issue statements of staging a coming back in Telangana, but the political reality is that it is going to remain a pipe dream for Chandrababu Naidu.
In fact, the TDP leaders issue these statements to fill confidence in the social class that supports the TDP. For Naidu, it pays to create an impression that the party was alive in Telangana.
In 2019, the TDP did not contest the Lok Sabha elections in Telangana. The reason given was that it would have no time as it had to concentrate on Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh.
In the GHMC elections in 2020, TDP won very few seats and gained a vote share of 1.67 percent. As Naidu was busy setting his house in order, he did not contest the assembly elections in November 2023. He did not contest the Parliament elections in Telangana either. The party has become much weaker since then.
After winning the elections for the second time in 2018, KCR changed his party’s name to Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) and declared that it was a national party.
The party had campaigned that it would contest elections in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra. But the party fell flat in the Assembly elections in Telangana itself and drew a blank in Lok Sabha elections in 2024.
Even YS Shamila who experimented in Telangana had burnt her fingers. She migrated to Andhra Pradesh after becoming APCC president, but there too she had to face defeat.
(Views are personal. Edited by Sumavarsha Kandula)
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