The BJP’s decision has unsettled its ideological moorings while granting Opposition parties a moral victory in their pursuit of social justice.
Published May 02, 2025 | 11:00 AM ⚊ Updated May 02, 2025 | 11:00 AM
People gathered at a ghat on the banks of river Ganga. (iStock)
Synopsis: The BJP, advocating Hindu unity, had been resisting calls for a caste census. However, in a surprising move, the BJP has now resolved to conduct a caste census alongside the population census.
For years, Opposition parties have demanded a nationwide caste census, while the BJP, advocating Hindu unity, has resisted such calls. However, in a surprising move, the BJP has now resolved to conduct a caste census alongside the population census, catching many off guard.
This decision raises questions: Is the BJP aiming to neutralise Opposition parties that thrive on caste-based politics? Or does this shift, which contradicts the ideology of its ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), risk undermining the party’s core principles? The announcement has sparked intense debate.
In India, caste wields greater influence than religion in shaping political dynamics. Across states, electoral strategies hinge on caste affiliations, prompting political parties to guard caste demographics closely.
The last caste census was conducted in 1931 under British rule, integrated with the population census. Post-independence, the 1951 census excluded caste enumeration, and reservations for backwards classes have since relied on 1931 data. In 2011, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) initiated a Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC), but political manoeuvring prevented the release of its findings.
After losing power, Congress began advocating for a caste census to advance social justice, a demand largely ignored by the BJP.
The RSS, the ideological backbone of the BJP, has consistently opposed caste censuses, claiming to prioritise Hindu unity over caste divisions. When the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Janata Dal (United) coalition conducted a caste census in Bihar in 2023, both the RSS and the BJP vehemently objected to it.
Similar exercises in Karnataka and Telangana faced criticism from the RSS and BJP, who accused Opposition parties of fuelling caste-based vote-bank politics.
During the Maharashtra Assembly election campaign, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath used the slogan “Batenge to katenge” (If we divide, we will be destroyed) to deflect caste census demands. Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed this sentiment with “Ek hain toh safe hain” (We are safe only if united), reinforcing opposition to caste enumeration.
The resistance to caste censuses predates independence. Hindu organisations, including the RSS, opposed British-era caste enumerations. After independence, the exclusion of caste from population censuses prompted socialist parties to sustain demands for caste enumeration.
In 1979, the Janata Party government under Morarji Desai formed the Mandal Commission to identify socially and educationally backward classes. The commission estimated that 52 percent of India’s population comprised Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and recommended 27 percent reservations for OBCs in government jobs and public sector institutions.
Combined with reservations for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs), this would raise total reservations to 49 percent. However, the collapse of the Desai government led subsequent Congress administrations under Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi to shelve the report to protect their electoral base.
In 1990, the VP Singh government’s decision to implement the Mandal Commission recommendations triggered nationwide protests, including student self-immolations. Concurrently, BJP leader LK Advani’s Ram Rath Yatra and ensuing Hindu-Muslim riots overshadowed the caste census demand.
The issue resurfaced in 2011, intensifying calls for enumeration, yet the BJP remained steadfastly opposed over the past decade. Before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Modi labeled caste census advocates “urban Naxals.” Following the Pahalgam terror attack, the BJP’s official social media equated such advocates with terrorists. The party’s abrupt reversal now invites scrutiny over how it will justify this shift.
Recent caste censuses in Telangana and Karnataka have amplified demands for social justice nationwide. With Bihar’s Assembly elections looming this year, pressure on the BJP has intensified.
A 2015 caste survey in Bihar under Nitish Kumar’s government revealed that 65 percent of the population comprised OBCs. Against this backdrop, speculation suggests the BJP’s decision aims to safeguard its OBC vote bank and counter the Opposition’s social justice narrative through a strategic manoeuvre.
The RSS responded cautiously, urging that the caste census should not become a political tool and must be conducted scientifically to address social inequalities. This guarded stance hints at internal unease.
A day before the announcement, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat met Prime Minister Modi, likely discussing this policy shift. The decision appears driven by electoral compulsions rather than an ideological realignment. Some view the announcement as a tactic to divert attention from security lapses following the Pahalgam attack.
Since 2014, the BJP has consolidated its dominance, but sustaining it hinges on support from backward classes. With most BJP leaders hailing from upper castes, a caste census could weaken the party if OBCs and other backward classes demand greater power-sharing.
While upper castes have accepted OBC integration under the Hindutva umbrella since the 1990s, equitable power distribution across castes may face resistance.
Opposition parties, including Congress, the Samajwadi Party, and regional outfits, have relentlessly pushed the caste census agenda, mounting pressure on the BJP. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Samajwadi Party’s ‘PDA’ (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpasankhyak) strategy outmanoeuvred the BJP.
The INDIA bloc’s broader caste and community representation further disadvantaged the BJP. Despite initiatives like the Rohini Commission and Raghavendra Kumar panel for OBC sub-categorisation, the BJP has withheld their reports. Meanwhile, Opposition-ruled states have conducted caste censuses, escalating political pressure on the BJP.
This decision may yield short-term electoral gains for the BJP but poses long-term challenges. A caste census, antithetical to Hindutva ideology, could entrench caste-based politics, potentially sparking a “Mandal 3.0” movement.
Caste remains a formidable force in Indian politics, impervious to religious unification efforts. The BJP’s decision has unsettled its ideological moorings while granting Opposition parties a moral victory in their pursuit of social justice.
However, the population census, due in 2021, remains pending, and uncertainties persist over the caste census’s timeline and execution. Doubts about its implementation cannot be dismissed.
(Edited by Muhammed Fazil.)
