The BJP is on-point as far as optics go. The cheers will have you believe that its alliance with AIADMK is a death knell to the DMK government. However, on the ground, the realities are more nuanced and dynamic.
Published Apr 16, 2025 | 6:32 PM ⚊ Updated Apr 23, 2025 | 8:47 PM
Edappadi Palaniswami, Amit Shah, Udhayanidhi Stalin and MK Stalin.
Synopsis: Even though the AIADMK has restored its alliance with the BJP in Tamil Nadu, it is highly unlikely to make any significant electoral impact. The BJP’s perceived anti-Tamil and anti-minority image continues to hinder the AIADMK’s efforts to retain its own voters and woo new voters.
The recent announcement by the BJP that it has once again allied with the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu sparked off near-celebration, not just in party offices but also in Delhi TV channels. After all, the BJP became successful in wooing its miffed and powerful ally ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly polls in 2026.
The BJP is on point for the optics. The cheers will have you believe that the alliance is a death knell to the DMK government. However, on the ground, the realities are more nuanced and dynamic.
This alliance certainly has clear beneficiaries and sore casualties. Setting the claims and clamour aside, the answer to the all-important question — is this alliance a threat to the DMK? — is an obvious no; not in its current form, and highly unlikely without two important changes.
At the onset, BJP General Secretary (Organisation) BL Santhosh’s blue-eyed boy, former IPS officer-turned-politician K Annamalai, became the first casualty of the alliance. Having wielded unquestioned power in the Tamil Nadu BJP for years now, Annamalai’s ouster as state BJP chief was a precondition to the AIADMK’s return to the NDA.
Several TV channels made a martyr out of Annamalai, deeming his exit a “sacrifice for a larger cause”, the fact remains that Annamalai wasn’t able to deliver the BJP what he promised — electorally as well as structurally.
Factionalism, bruised egos, and warring tongues had cost the BJP an ally and electoral prospects. The BJP had been looking for an opportune moment to effect a change of guard, and the AIADMK provided the perfect excuse.
Former chief minister O Panneerselvam (OPS) and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AAMK) leader TTV Dinakaran were the next casualties. With Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS) categorically refusing reconciliation attempts with ousted leaders of the AIADMK — two loyal allies of the BJP who failed to bring electoral victories or influence — they have been shunned cold, left to fend for themselves.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah categorically stated that the BJP will not “interfere in the internal matters of AIADMK”, making it crystal that he has chosen EPS over OPS and Dinakaran. It seems loyalty pays only until one is useful.
The last but most important casualty of this alliance, however, seems to be the AIADMK itself. Since cadres and leaders were not taken into confidence, their minority vote bank is at stake. With past experiences of electoral failures due to the alliance, there is a perception of a ‘coerced/forced’ partnership.
It seems the alliance is more between EPS, the individual, and the BJP instead of AIADMK, the party, and the BJP. Due to the strong opposition to the Waqf (Amendment) Act 2025 brought in by the BJP government, the AIADMK — although it voted against it in the Parliament — is staring at mass desertion of its minority voters. The voters can see through the act.
Meanwhile, the big winner of the alliance is undoubtedly the BJP.
Without any significant presence in Tamil Nadu, the BJP will most likely grow at the cost of its ally, as is the case in every other state. AIADMK has a strong organisational structure in place and a dedicated network of cadres. Its vote bank is solid in the western belt of Tamil Nadu and some central districts. There’s little doubt that the AIADMK will be able to successfully transfer its vote share to the BJP.
In short, the AIADMK’s network, organisation and vote bank will fuel the BJP’s engine in Tamil Nadu.
The other winner of this alliance, as things stand today, is the DMK. The MK Stalin-led alliance successfully established itself as the one that protects Tamil pride and cultural identity and fights the Hindi cultural hegemony. In the run-up to the assembly election, it will definitely strengthen this position. AIADMK partnering with the BJP made it easier for the DMK to extend its counter-attack, aimed at the BJP, on the AIADMK.
Tamil Nadu’s voters, history shows, are biased in favour of strong, larger-than-life leaders who command presence. EPS is no “Amma” (J Jayalalithaa) and his decision to ally with the BJP gives DMK the perfect ammo to paint the AIADMK as a party that has been subjugated by “Delhi overlords”. It was for this reason that Amit Shah declared that Palaniswami would lead the alliance.
The alliance also allows the DMK to mask anti-incumbency, corruption allegations, law and order concerns and nepotism, and shift the narrative to a “Tamils vs Others” and “Insider vs Outsider” pitches.
From organising social justice conventions at the national level, leading the fight for federalism and state autonomy, and challenging the Governor’s actions and the Waqf Act in courts, DMK has positioned itself as a party with ideological integrity.
Had the AIADMK allied with actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) and formed a rainbow coalition with smaller parties, it may have been able to wean away DMK’s own allies, including the Left parties and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), but that seems far-fetched now.
The DMK is raring to cash in on the disgruntlement among AIADMK’s leaders, cadres and voters over the alliance with the BJP and secure the swing votes.
As things stand today, in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Assembly, the DMK-led alliance has 159 seats. DMK by itself has 134. Among its allies, the Indian National Congress (INC) holds 17 seats, CPI and CPIM have two each, and VCK has four.
On the other hand, the Opposition has only 75 seats. It should be noted that the AIADMK and BJP were in an alliance in the 2021 Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu. Of the 75 Opposition seats, the BJP has four, thanks to the aid of its allies. The AIADMK has 62 seats and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) has five seats.
In the 2021 Assembly polls, in which DMK single-handedly won absolute majority after 25 years in the state, the Stalin-led coalition polled 45.7 percent votes. AIADMK-led NDA polled 39.29 percent. The BJP’s share in this was a mere 2.62 percent, having contested in 20 seats.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the 2021 Assembly elections, when AIADMK fought in alliance with the BJP in Tamil Nadu, it turned out to be disastrous for the party. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the AIADMK and BJP split, but neither won a single seat.
A cursory look at how Tamil Nadu votes reveals that the DMK and allies tend to perform better in Northern districts like Tiruvallur, Chennai, Vellore, Ranipet, Chengalpattu and coastal districts like Ramanathapuram, Cuddalore, Mailaduthirai and Thoothukudi.
The AIADMK and allies tend to fare well in western districts, including the Kongu belt like Salem, Coimbatore, Dharmapuri, Erode and Thiruppur.
While Southern districts are seen as DMK’s Achilles heel, recent electoral trends show that depending on caste and candidate combinations, the fights in districts like Madurai, Shivagangai, Tenkasi, Tirunelveli, and Kanniyakumari can be very close.
Expectedly, districts like Kanniyakumari, Tirunelveli, Coimbatore and Chennai are being eyed by the BJP to make inroads. A consolidation of minority votes in these regions would be a good news for the DMK alliance.
Tamil Nadu is no Andhra Pradesh, and AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi Palaniswami is no Chandrababu Naidu. Even if he is, the alliance still doesn’t have its own “Pawan Kalyan” to pull off an electoral victory like in Andhra Pradesh.
Having established himself as a visionary chief minister, Chandrababu Naidu could pacify minority voters of the TDP to back it despite an alliance with the BJP. A three-party alliance to take on a lone Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP that was facing massive anti-incumbency was easier given the popularity of Naidu and the star power of Pawan Kalyan.
Jagan Mohan Reddy’s decision to jail Naidu powered a wave of sympathy, and his son Nara Lokesh’s mass outreach padayatra kept the momentum going.
In contrast, in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK may have a strong organisational structure, but EPS is not a mass leader. Compared to Stalin — who struggled to emerge from his father M Karunanidhi’s shadows to carve a niche of his own — Palaniswami’s appeal falls flat. There isn’t a strong motivator, neither sympathy, nor boredom against incumbent DMK — other than expected anti-incumbency on some quarters — for voters to switch to the AIADMK yet.
As things stand, the BJP-AIADMK alliance means very little on the ground. For things to change in its favour, the alliance may have to make at least two important changes.
The BJP, with its new state President Nainar Nagendran, will have to focus on bringing warring factions together; separate the BJP’s mass “Hindi-Hindu” narratives at the national level and customise Tamil Nadu-specific pitches to woo fence-sitting voters.
For any real impact, the AIADMK-BJP alliance will have to bring on board more partners. With TVK’s Vijay emerging as a potential vote-cutter, the BJP-AIADMK alliance will have to work towards preventing any split in anti-DMK votes if it intends to pose a real threat to the Stalin-led alliance.
In a bipolar contest, the DMK alliance faces the Herculean task of returning to power. However, if the BJP-AIADMK alliance fails to cobble together a broad-based coalition, paving the way for a multi-cornered contest, the DMK may well have the last laugh.
(Edited by Muhammed Fazil.)
