Concentrated in Seemanchal and North Bihar, Muslim voting patterns, rooted in concerns over communal harmony, welfare and representation, can tip 40-60 swing seats.
Published Oct 21, 2025 | 2:00 PM ⚊ Updated Oct 21, 2025 | 2:00 PM
Muslim voters Bihar. Representative Image. (iStock)
Synopsis: Bihar’s politics hinges on caste alignments, development promises, and strategic alliances. Muslim voters, comprising 17.7 percent of the population, concentrated in Seemanchal and North Bihar, hold sway in approximately 80 constituencies. Muslim voting in 2025 could recalibrate Bihar’s political equilibrium.
The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, conducted in two phases on 6 and 11 November with results due on 14 November, represent a defining moment for the state’s 243-seat legislature. With 7.43 crore registered voters, including 14 lakh first-time voters, Bihar’s politics hinges on caste alignments, development promises, and strategic alliances.
Muslim voters, comprising 17.7 percent of the population — around 2.3 crore as per the 2022 caste survey — hold sway in approximately 80 constituencies. Concentrated in Seemanchal and North Bihar, their patterns, rooted in concerns over communal harmony, welfare and representation, can tip 40-60 swing seats.
Recent electoral roll deletions of 65 lakh names, disproportionately affecting Muslims (24.7 percent of deletions despite 16.9 percent demographic share), raise turnout questions.
As NDA comprising BJP and JD(U), Mahagathbandhan — RJD, Congress and the Left — AIMIM, and Jan Suraaj compete, Muslim preferences could reshape the power balance.
Muslim voting in Bihar has evolved from broad electoral participation to strategic anti-BJP consolidation since the 1990s. During the Congress-led era (1952-1985), Muslims aligned with general trends, yielding 23-34 Muslim MLAs, predominantly from Congress (26 in 1957, 34 in 1985).
The post-Mandal shift under Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD forged the enduring “MY” (Muslim-Yadav) coalition, capitalising on anti-upper-caste mobilisation and post-Babri Masjid security. In 1990, 19 Muslim MLAs emerged (10 from Janata Dal); 23 in 1995 (13 Janata Dal); and 30 in 2000 (13 RJD), reflecting near-unified support for RJD’s secular platform.
The mid-2000s marked fragmentation with Nitish Kumar’s JD(U)-BJP alliance prioritising governance. The 2005 elections produced 22 Muslim MLAs, split between NDA and RJD. By 2010, NDA secured 19 Muslim MLAs (eight from the alliance, including seven JD(U)).
Nitish’s 2013 split from the BJP garnered partial Muslim backing, evident in the 2014 Lok Sabha, where RJD led with 32 percent Muslim support, followed by Congress at 19 percent.
The 2015 Grand Alliance (RJD-JD(U)-Congress) swept 178 seats, electing 24 Muslim MLAs — all from the bloc — with overwhelming Muslim consolidation amid fears of the BJP’s rise. RJD alone claimed 80 seats on MY strength.
In 2020, NDA narrowly prevailed (125 seats to Mahagathbandhan’s 110). Muslims gave 62 percent support to Mahagathbandhan, but AIMIM’s Seemanchal breakthrough (five seats) fragmented 15-20 percent of votes, yielding only 19 Muslim MLAs: 13 from Grand Alliance (eight RJD, four Congress, one CPI(ML)), five AIMIM, and one BSP — none from NDA.
Lok Sabha trends underscore this: NDA dominated 39 of 40 seats in 2019 despite Muslim unity against it; by 2024, the INDIA bloc won nine, buoyed by 80-90 percent Muslim consolidation on economic and Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) concerns.
These shifts reveal a transition from RJD dominance to issue-driven, fragmented voting shaped by polarisation and welfare imperatives.
Present trends among Bihar’s Muslim community signal a blend of steadfast anti-BJP loyalty and growing disillusionment with underrepresentation, alongside a youth-led pivot toward development over identity. Approximately 75 percent maintain static support for Mahagathbandhan, driven by fears of communal polarisation and calls for unity (batoge to katoge —division leads to defeat).
Yet, Pasmanda Muslims (67 percent of the community) show nuanced openness to JD(U)’s backward caste welfare and caste census advocacy, despite its BJP ties. Urban and young voters (18-35 age group) increasingly prioritise jobs, education, and flood relief, with higher female turnout reflecting a welfare focus.
Electoral roll deletions in Muslim-heavy areas (9.69 percent in Kishanganj, 12.13 percent in Gopalganj) threaten 5-10 percent turnout suppression, amplifying frustration over systemic exclusion — Muslim MLAs have never exceeded 10 percent of the Assembly despite their demographic weight.
Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), anchored in NDA, has eroded its secular credentials, fielding just four Muslim candidates (down from 11 in 2020, none victorious). The alliance’s mere five Muslim tickets statewide underscores alienation, though Nitish retains a “safety wall” image against Hindutva, securing 14 percent Muslim support in 2020 via governance schemes like bicycle distribution.
The RJD-Congress-Left Mahagathbandhan commands 70-80 percent Muslim allegiance as the primary anti-BJP bulwark, leveraging the MY base with pledges for jobs, reservations, and Waqf safeguards. RJD’s influence is foundational: It garnered 32 percent Muslim votes in 2014, 18 percent in 2015, and elected eight Muslim MLAs in 2020.
Tejashwi Yadav’s youth-centric campaign on unemployment strengthens this, but the bloc’s scant eight Muslim tickets (four each from RJD and Congress) draws sharp criticism for betraying loyalists. Congress, as junior partner, historically draws 12-19 percent Muslim support and elected four MLAs in 2020, yet internal discord over seat-sharing and tepid outreach limits its pull; its impact remains secondary to RJD’s dominance within the alliance.
AIMIM has announced 32 seats, targeting Seemanchal’s Pasmanda voters via “Nyay Yatra” on regional neglect, potentially siphoning 10-15 percent Muslim votes and repeating its 2020 haul of 2-3 seats.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj fields 21 Muslim candidates (pledging 40 total from 116), appealing to educated youth with anti-corruption and development platforms, possibly attracting 5-10 percent but hindered by its upper-caste perception.
National narratives like CAA and “Bangladeshi infiltrator” rhetoric in Seemanchal fuel tactical voting, yet economic distress dominates preferences, positioning Muslims as contested influencers in 40-50 swing seats.
Muslim voters cluster in Seemanchal, hosting 28 percent of Bihar’s Muslims: Kishanganj (68%), Araria (43%), Purnea (38%), Katihar (44%), according to the 2011 Census. These 24 constituencies are battlegrounds where over 80 percent Muslim support delivers anti-NDA victories, as in the 2015 Grand Alliance sweep.
Fragmentation flips outcomes: In 2020, Mahagathbandhan won seven seats, NDA 12, and AIMIM five (Amour, Kochadhaman, Jokihat, Baisi, Bahadurganj).
Consolidated votes inflate margins by 10-15 percent; splits shrink them to 5-7 percent, favouring NDA. Beyond Seemanchal, influences span 134 seats statewide, including Gopalganj (17% Muslims), where deletions hit 12.13 percent.
Regional nuances — Pasmanda dominance in border areas versus upper Muslims centrally — yield diverse patterns, with Seemanchal’s linguistic and caste divides challenging uniform blocs. A 10 percent vote shift here could alter the results of 15-20 assembly seats.
Three evidence-based scenarios emerge from historical and current trends. First, unified Muslim consolidation (80-90%) behind Mahagathbandhan, mirroring 2024 Lok Sabha patterns, could add 20-30 seats via polarisation fears, yielding a majority or hung assembly.
Second, fragmentation: AIMIM and Jan Suraaj divert 20-30 percent votes, as in 2020, costing Mahagathbandhan 10-15 seats and bolstering NDA through split anti-BJP arithmetic.
Third, “silent voter” emergence: 10-15 percent prioritise development, shifting to Jan Suraaj or JD(U) welfare appeals, evident in urban youth and Pasmanda trends, while deletions suppress turnout by 5-10 percent, narrowing margins unpredictably.
Muslim voting in 2025 could recalibrate Bihar’s political equilibrium, with trends of 75 percent Mahagathbandhan loyalty tempered by fragmentation and development priorities influencing 40-60 seats. RJD’s core hold, bolstered yet constrained by Congress’s secondary role, underscores the community’s shift from monolithic vote bank to contested force.
If current patterns persist — unified core support offset by 20-25 percent splits — Mahagathbandhan’s static base may enable NDA to clinch a narrow majority despite anti-incumbency, perpetuating Nitish Kumar’s alliance dominance.
(Views are personal. Edited by Muhammed Fazil.)
