Win for BJP in Gujarat, neck-and-neck with Congress in Himachal Pradesh, predict exit polls

For 182 seats in Gujarat was concluded on 5 December and for 70 seats in Himachal Pradesh, the polling was concluded on 12 November.

BySumit Jha

Published Dec 05, 2022 | 10:26 PMUpdatedDec 05, 2022 | 10:26 PM

EXIT POLLS Gujarat Himachal Pradesh

Exit polls are unanimous about a BJP win in the Gujarat Assembly election, but suggest a neck-and-neck contest in Himachal Pradesh. Polling for the 182 seats in Gujarat concluded on Monday, 5 December, while for the 70 seats in Himachal Pradesh, polling was held on 12 November.

The counting of the votes for both state elections is scheduled for 8 December.

Gujarat: 182 seats

All exit polls conducted by various agencies predict a win for the BJP. The party had won 99 seats in the last Assembly election in 2019, with the Congress doing better-than-expected at 77 seats. This time, new entrant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the third pole in a traditionally two-party contest, has, it would seem, eaten into the Congress vote rather than that of the BJP.

The India Today-Axis My India poll predicts BJP winning with a huge margin in the state. The agency predicts that BJP will win 131-151 seats, the Congress will get 16-30 seats and new entrant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will get a mere 9-21 seats. Others will manage to just 2-6 seats.

Republic TV-PMARQ Poll shows that BJP will get 128-148 seats with a 48.2 percent vote share, while the Congress will get 30-42 seats with a 32.6 percent vote share. Meanwhile, the new entrant AAP will get 2-10 seats with a 15.4 percent vote share. Others will manage to get 0-3 seats with a 3.8 percent vote share.

Times Now predicts BJP will get around 131 seats with a 42 percent vote share, while Congress will get 41 seats with a 30 percent vote share. Meanwhile, AAP will get six seats with a 11 percent vote share. Others will manage just 4 seats with a six percent vote share.

India News-Jan Ki Baat predicts that BJP will get 117-140 seats with 44-49 percent vote share, while Congress will bag 34-51 seats with 28-32 percent vote share, and AAP will get 6-13 seats with 12-19 percent vote share. Others will get 1-2 seats with a 7-9 percent vote share.

Pollster People's Pulse post-poll survey has predicted a comfortable win for the BJP in Gujarat, with the party bagging anywhere from 125 to 143 seats in the 182-member house. The Congress will win between 30 and 49 seats, and the APP will win three to seven seats. Others are expected to bag between two and six seats.

Himachal Pradesh: 70 seats

In Himachal Pradesh, the contest will be neck to neck as exit poll and as well as agencies which have conducted surveys are giving both BJP and Congress equal chances to win the election. The winning margin in the state is 36 seats. It is an election for the Congress to lose, as the state has traditionally voted one of the two parties to power alternatively. In the 2017 Assembly election, the BJP had won 44 seats to 21 for the Congress. So it should have been the Congress' turn this time around.


India Today-Axis My India predicts the Congress will win the state election in a neck-and-neck fight with the BJP.

In Himachal Pradesh, BJP will get around 24-34 seats with a 42 percent vote share while Congress will get 30-40 seats with a 44 percent vote share. Meanwhile, AAP will get two percent of the vote, but no seat. Others will win get 4-8 seats with 12 percent vote share.

Republic TV-PMARQ Poll exit poll predicts a narrow win for the BJP in the state. The BJP will get around 34-39 seats with a 44.8 percent vote share, while Congress will win 28-33 seats with a 42.9 percent vote share. Meanwhile, AAP will manage to get at least a seat with a 2.8 percent vote share. Others will also manage to win 1-4 seats with 9.5 percent vote share.

Times Now also predicts a closely fought win for BJP in Himachal Pradesh. The BJP will bag around 38 seats with a 45.1 percent vote share, while the Congress will win 29-39 seats with a 40.9 percent vote share. Meanwhile, AAP will fail to open its account though it will get a 5.3 percent vote share. Others are expected to win two seats with 8.7 percent vote share.

India News-Jan Ki Baat predicts a neck-and-neck fight between the Congress and BJP in the state. The agency predicts that the BJP will get around 32-40 seats with a 45-48 percent vote share, while Congress will get 27-34 seats with a 42-44 percent vote share. AAP will not open its basket of seats with a 1-2 percent vote share. Others manage to get 1-2 seats with 7-11 percent vote share.

According to the Peoples Pulse post-poll survey in Himachal Pradesh, the Congress is likely to get 29–39 seats, the BJP 27–37 seats, and others 2–5 seats in the 2022 Assembly elections. AAP — the party that began with a lot of hype after its victory in adjacent Punjab — will be drawing a blank with a vote share of 2.1 percent.

Municipal Corporation of Delhi: 250 wards

Meanwhile, most of the exit polls predict that AAP will win the Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections, underlining yet again the capital's fascination with the party led by Arvind Kejriwal.

India Today-Axis My India predicts AAP will win 149-171 of the 250 wards, the BJP will get 69-91 wards, while the Congress will only be able to manage 3-7 wards, and others will bag 5-9.

India News-Jan Ki Baat too predicts an AAP win with 150-175 wards. BJP will win 92-70 wards, while the Congress will bag just 4-7 wards, and others win only one ward.

TV9 Bharatvarsh has predicted 145 wards for AAP, 94 for BJP, and eight for the Congress. Others will get around three wards.