Approximately ninety lakh Indians are working across the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, as well as in Jordan and Lebanon. The escalation could spell disaster not just for these workers, but also for the economies of South Indian states such as Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana — and to a lesser extent, Tamil Nadu — which are reliant on remittances.
Published Jun 23, 2025 | 12:00 PM ⚊ Updated Jun 23, 2025 | 12:00 PM
US President Donald Trump described the strikes as a “spectacular success”.
Synopsis: Any escalation could destabilise the Middle East, disrupt trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea corridor, and strain local economies. This may lead to rising prices, job losses, and stricter visa or work permit regulations. With nearly 90 lakh Indians living in Gulf countries, many in low-wage sectors, even minor disruptions can have serious consequences for their livelihoods and families back home.
In a dramatic escalation of long-simmering tensions, the United States launched coordinated airstrikes early Sunday, 22 June, targeting Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. The operation, reportedly involving B-2 stealth bombers and submarine-launched cruise missiles, marks the first direct US assault on Iranian territory since the killing of General Qassem Soleimani in 2020.
US President Donald Trump, speaking from the White House, described the strikes as a “spectacular success,” claiming they had “crippled Iran’s nuclear ambitions” and delivered a “message of resolve.”
Iran has confirmed the attacks and reported minimal damage; it has not yet announced any plans for retaliation.
However, Indians in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, who woke up to the breaking news of the US bombing Iran, expressed their worries with South First.
“When Trump was seeking a 14-day window for intervention, we felt relieved. However, as usual, he says one thing and does another. What we feared has now happened. The GCC countries will be in Iran’s crosshairs,” said Varghese George, an Indian who has been living in the UAE for the past 30 years, speaking to South First.
By Sunday afternoon, the Bahraini government had advised residents to use only main roads, instructed 70 percent of employees to shift to remote work, and directed schools to transition to online education until further notice.
“In light of recent developments in the regional security situation, we urge citizens and residents to use main roads only when necessary, to maintain public safety and to allow the relevant authorities to use the roads efficiently,” Bahrain’s interior ministry posted on X.
Speaking to South First, Sudheer Thirunilath, a Keralite migrant lawyer based in Bahrain, expressed deep concern over the latest developments.
“We were hoping the situation would de-escalate, especially since Trump had called for a 14-day pause. We thought that window might lead to diplomacy and peace. But now, with the US launching a surprise intervention, everything has changed. This will certainly provoke Iran, and their response—direct or through proxies—could destabilise the region. It’s likely to impact not just security, but also the economy, businesses, and working conditions across the Gulf,” Sudheer said.
Earlier this week, Bahraini authorities said they had activated a national plan and a national civil emergency centre to prepare in case of emergencies and proceeded to test warning sirens across the country.
Meanwhile, Kuwait has set up shelters within the country’s Ministries Complex — an extensive compound that houses several government departments, including the Ministries of Justice and Finance.
Khaleel Rahman, a Keralite finance professional in Kuwait, said there is growing concern among the migrant community.
“We all hope diplomacy prevails and peace is restored. But we’re already hearing about a few companies forcing employees to go on leave as tensions rise, ” he said.
Following the recent US military strikes, some argue now that Iran has the moral justification to retaliate by targeting US bases in the Middle East, particularly those in GCC countries.
According to a report from the Council on Foreign Relations published this month, 40,000 US soldiers are stationed in the Middle East.
“In total, the United States has military facilities across at least 19 sites — eight of them considered to be permanent by many regional analysts — in countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates,” the report said.
Qatar hosts US Central Command’s forward headquarters. Bahrain hosts the most permanently assigned US personnel and is home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet.
Speaking to South First, Ginu Zacharia Oommen, an eminent professor of West Asian Studies, said that considering Iran’s missile capabilities, the GCC military bases would be easy targets for Tehran.
“If Iran launches missiles at these bases, the GCC countries would inevitably be dragged into the Iran-Israel conflict, triggering a severe economic crisis in the region,” he warned.
“Such a crisis would have a direct impact on migrant workers, especially Indians, who form a significant portion of the Gulf’s workforce. It could lead to widespread job losses and unpaid wages, similar to the 1990 Gulf War, when several lakhs of Indians were forced to flee Kuwait empty-handed,” he added.
Approximately 90 lakh Indians are working across the six GCC countries, as well as in Jordan and Lebanon. Of these, around 40 lakh are Keralites, employed in the same region.
Early on Sunday, following the US attack, a prominent official from the Iran-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen said in a social media post that it would hold Trump responsible for the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
“Trump must bear the consequences,” Houthi political bureau member Hizam al-Assad posted on X.
Earlier, a statement from the Houthi-controlled Yemeni Armed Forces said the group was prepared to target US Navy warships in the Red Sea “if the American enemy launches an aggression in support” of Israel.
Houthi rebels began attacking ships in the Red Sea in November 2023, at first targeting vessels with links to Israel in reaction to its bombing in Gaza. Later, US warships in the region became Houthi targets after they intervened to protect Red Sea shipping. The US retaliated with a series of air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen that continued into the spring of this year.
Meanwhile, an Indian crude oil trader based in the Middle East warned that the Houthis might also target the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 percent of the world’s crude oil is transported.
“Any disruption to trade vessels in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz will delay consignments, increase insurance premiums, slow down operations across the GCC, affect fund flows, and ultimately cause business losses that could lead to job cuts — especially for migrant workers,” the trader, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, told South First.
Bheem Reddy, a migrant rights activist based in Telangana, told South First, “I witnessed the Kuwait exodus, and more recently, the Covid-19 outbreak. In both instances, several lakhs of Indians — especially low-paid migrants in the construction and hospitality sectors of the Arab Gulf — returned home empty-handed.”
“When that happens, it’s not just the workers who suffer. The economies of South Indian states — particularly those reliant on remittances, like Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, though less so Tamil Nadu — also take a significant hit,” he added.
(Rejimon Kuttappan is an independent journalist, labour migration expert and author of Undocumented=Penguin 2021. Edited by Dese Gowda.)
