TDP-Jana Sena-BJP alliance set to sweep Andhra Pradesh, say many exit polls; others give edge to YSRCP

Some surveys predicted a one-sided victory for the TDP-led alliance, while others expected the incumbent YSRCP to return to power.

BySouth First Desk

Published Jun 01, 2024 | 6:30 PM Updated Jun 02, 2024 | 12:17 AM

Prime Minister Narendra Modi took out a road show in Vijayawada, and was joined by his alliance partners, N Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP and Pawan Kalyan of the Jana Sena Party. (X)

Several exit polls on the evening of Saturday, 1 June, said the TDP-led alliance with Jana Sena and BJP was set to sweep the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections.

This would mean TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu was set to become the Chief Minister for the fourth time with the three-party alliance, leaving the YSR Congress Party by the wayside.

However, some other exit polls gave the ruling YSRCP an edge, meaning that if they came true, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy would continue as the chief minister.

The exit polls

A Peoples Pulse Research Organization survey from 16 to 20 May revealed that TDP would get 95-110 seats in the 175-member Assembly. The YSRCP, aiming to retain power, would have 45-60 seats. The TDP’s allies Jana Sena would get 14-20 seats and BJP two to five seats.

Andhra Assembly seat share by Peoples Pulse

Andhra Assembly seat share by Peoples Pulse

The TDP contested 144 Assembly seats, while the Jana Sena and BJP were allotted 21 and 10 seats, respectively. YSRCP contested all 175.

Per the exit poll survey, the YSRCP vote share may be 42-45 percent. The TDP-JS-BJP vote share will be 50-54 percent, Congress 1-2 percent, others, and Nota 3-4 percent. The survey provides a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.

Several other exit polls also gave TDP a clear majority in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly.

The Pioneer exit poll expects TDP to get 144 and YSRCP 31 seats. Rise gave 113-122 to TDP and 48-60 to YSRCP. Janagalam says TDP will get 104-118 seats and YSRCP between 44 and 57 seats.

KK Surveys gave TDP 133 seats, followed by 14 for YSRCP, 7 for BJP and 21 for Jana Sena. Chanakya Strategies showed TDP getting 114-125 and YSRCP 39-49 seats.

Meanwhile, the TV9Telugu Aaraa Mastan exit poll appeared to lean towards YSRCP. It said the ruling party would win 94-104 Assembly seats. Meanwhile, the NDA was projected to win 71 seats.

The Centre for Politics and Policy Studies projected 95-105 seats for the YSRCP in the Andhra Pradesh assembly and 75-85 seats for the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena alliance. Atma Sakshi SAS also projected a win for the YSRCP, giving it 98-116 seats.

Smart Poll predicted a close contest between YSRCP and TDP, the parties projected to get 82 and 93 seats, respectively. Janmat tilts towards a YSRCP victory, giving it 95-103 seats, against 65-75 for TDP. Wrap Smart poll gave YSRCP a whopping 158 seats and TDP, 4-17 seats.

TDP or YSRCP sweep in Lok Sabha?

According to Peoples Pulse survey, in the Lok Sabha elections, the TDP is expected to get 13-15 of the 25 parliamentary seats in Andhra Pradesh. Jana Sena would win both the seats allotted to them and the BJP is expected to win between 2-4 of the six seats. The YSR Congress would get 3-5 seats.

And Parliament seat share by Peoples Pulse

And Parliament seat share by Peoples Pulse

Other exit polls show the TDP-led alliance netting a maximum of 25 of the 25 Lok Sabha constituencies in Andhra Pradesh. News18 gives the TDP 19-22 seats and the YSRCP 5-8, with the BJP drawing a blank.

India News-D Dynamics gives the TDP and YSRCP 18 and 7 seats, respectively. CNX says the TDP will get 13-15 seats, the YSRCP 3-5, Jana Sena 2, and the BJP 4-6 seats.

Pioneer says TDP and YSRCP will share the spoils, getting 20 and 5 seats, respectively. Chanakya Strategies predicts 17-18 seats for TDP and 6-7 seats for YSRCP.

ABP-C-Voter shows TDP getting 21-25 seats and YSRCP 4. KK Surveys projects 17 seats for TDP, 2 for Jana Sena and 6 for BJP. India TV gives TDP between 13 and 15 seats, YSRCP 3-5 seats, Jana Sena 2 seats and BJP 4-6 seats.  Rise feels TDP will get between 17-20 seats and YSRCP 7-10 seats.

In contrast, some polls predicted a better performance by YSRCP.  The Times Now ETG Research poll predicted YSRCP winning 13-15 Lok Sabha seats and the NDA, 10-12 seats. Jan Ki Baat gave YSRCP 8-13 seats and NDA 10-14 seats.

The News18 mega exit poll predicted that NDA would get 19-22 seats and YSRCP 5-8 seats. Aaraa Mastaan said YSRCP could win 13-15 seats and TDP 10-12 seats.

According to the Peoples Pulse survey analysis, the alliance’s success is due to the chemistry between its respective supporters, which enabled a meticulous transfer of votes.

The TDP-led alliance has an edge over the main rival, YSRCP, in all regions except Rayalaseema. It similarly has an edge in all survey parameters, namely, development, community preference, CM choice, and party preference, across age and gender.

Also read: Political power to serve people, says Naidu

Naidu preferred CM candidate

According to Peoples Pulse, Chandrababu Naidu was the most-preferred chief ministerial candidate, with 40 percent of the respondents choosing him. Incumbent chief minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy was preferred by 38 percent. Pawan Kalyan got the backing of 12 percent.

Fifty-two percent of the respondents backed the alliance for better development, compared to 41 percent for the YSRC Congress. The alliance also received 54 percent support for forming the next government, compared to 44 percent for the YSRC Congress.

At the national level, 48 percent backed Narendra Modi as Prime Minister, with 38 percent preferring Rahul Gandhi.

Also read: The Jagan vs Sharmila fight

Congress prospects dim

The Congress thought the appointment of party stalwart the late YS Rajasekhar Reddy’s daughter YS Sharmila as state Congress chief would boost its electoral prospects.

The survey analysis says that the voters did not consider the party, still feeling the hurt of the state’s bifurcation.

The analysis says the YSRC Congress may have underestimated the strength of the opposition alliance and not seriously considered its past performance.

For instance, in the 2014 Assembly election, the alliance all but two of the 21 constituencies that have gone to the Jana Sena kitty in 2024.

The same alliance won the 2014 election, the first after Andhra Pradesh was bifurcated.

The Jana Sena, however, did not contest them but actively supported the TDP-BJP alliance. The TDP won 102 seats, the BJP won four, and the YSR Congress won 67. The three parties were part of the NDA.

Survey details

Peoples Pulse research organisation conducted the post-poll survey from 16th to 20th May in all 25 parliamentary constituencies in the state. A total of 6900 samples were chosen to represent all variables. Researchers visited all 175 Assembly Segments in the state’s three regions from 1st March to 13th May 2024.

The Survey consisted of a structured Questionnaire, face-to-face interviews, and a secret ballot. It collected 100 samples from each Assembly segment. The selection of samples was done according to the Population Proportionate Size methodology to reflect the caste, community, and age on the ground. Gender was given equal representation. The survey was face-to-face interviews with a structured questionnaire. The survey also included a secret ballot.

The survey report was compiled by R Dileep Reddy, Director, Peoples Pulse research organization and G Murali Krishna, Senior researcher, Peoples Pulse.