The 2021 SRS report shows South India's TFR has dropped sharply below replacement levels, with Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh at 1.5, and Karnataka and Telangana close behind at 1.6
Published May 16, 2025 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated May 16, 2025 | 7:00 AM
Newborn baby. Representational Image. (iStock)
Synopsis: Despite South India’s record-low fertility rates, a notable preference for second children persists in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The SRS 2021 report shows TFRs below replacement levels, with Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh at 1.5. Yet, birth order data reveals a higher share of second births in these states, indicating evolving but culturally rooted reproductive choices
Even as fertility rates plummet across India, particularly in the southern states, a curious trend is emerging: Families in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, despite having some of the lowest Total Fertility Rates (TFR) in the country, show a strong preference for having a second child.
According to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2021, the TFR in South India has fallen below replacement levels at an unprecedented scale. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh report a TFR of just 1.5, while Karnataka and Telangana follow closely at 1.6. These figures mark a sharp decline even from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) conducted in 2019-21, where Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh had TFRs of 1.8, and Karnataka and Telangana stood at 1.7 and 1.82, respectively.
This demographic shift signifies a steady transformation in reproductive behaviour. However, the birth order data from the same SRS report adds nuance to the story. While first-order births (i.e., firstborn children) still dominate, states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu rank among the top in the country for the proportion of second-order births.
Kerala has the highest share of second-order births among all major states and Union Territories in India, with 36.6 percent of current live births falling in this category. Tamil Nadu isn’t far behind, with second-order births making up 31.6 percent of live births. Both states surpass the national average of 25.5 percent.
This trend suggests that while families in these states are increasingly choosing to have fewer children, many still opt for at least two.
In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, families are making highly informed reproductive choices, Even as they delay childbirth or limit their total number of children, the idea of having a sibling for the first child seems to retain social and emotional importance.
According to 2021 data, 60.6 percent of current live births in India are first-order, followed by 25.5 percent second-order, 9.0 percent third-order, and 4.9 percent fourth or higher-order births.
Among major States and Union Territories, Delhi records the highest percentage of first-order births at 82.4 percent, while Madhya Pradesh has the lowest at 44.7 percent. Kerala leads in second-order births at 36.6 percent, whereas Delhi is the lowest at 11.8 percent. Bihar has the highest share of third-order births at 16.0 percent, while Delhi again has the lowest at 4.2 percent. Bihar also tops in fourth or higher-order births at 11.0 percent, while Andhra Pradesh has the lowest at 0.7 percent.
In Telangana, first-born children constituted an impressive 71.1 percent of all births recorded in 2021, the highest proportion among all South Indian states. Second-order births in Telangana accounted for 22.7 percent of total births, while third-order births represented 5.0 percent. Only 1.1 percent of Telangana’s births were fourth-order or higher, indicating a strong prevalence of smaller families.
Neighboring Andhra Pradesh showed similar but slightly more moderate figures, with 64.6 percent of births being first children, followed by 29.8 percent second-order births. Third-order births in Andhra Pradesh comprised 4.9 percent of the total, with fourth or higher-order births representing just 0.7 percent, the lowest such percentage in South India.
Tamil Nadu’s birth order distribution closely paralleled Andhra Pradesh’s pattern, with 62.9 percent first-order births and 31.6 percent second-order births. Third children accounted for 4.8 percent of Tamil Nadu births, while fourth or higher-order births were rare at 0.8 percent.
Karnataka presented a slightly different profile, with 59.9 percent of births being first children and 31.7 percent being second children. The state recorded 6.9 percent of births as third-order, with 1.5 percent being fourth-order or beyond.
Kerala now records the lowest proportion of first-order births among South Indian states at just 48.4 percent—considerably below the national average. Second-order births in Kerala accounted for 36.6 percent, while third-order births represented 11.5 percent of the total—more than double the percentage seen in other South Indian states. Most notably, Kerala recorded 3.4 percent of births as fourth-order or higher, the highest such percentage in the region.
Perhaps the most striking evidence of South India’s demographic transition comes from the remarkably low percentages of third-order and higher births. Kerala again stands out with the highest proportion of third-order births in the region at 11.5 percent—more than double the figures from other South Indian states. This reflects Kerala’s more diverse family structure patterns compared to its neighbors.
Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu show the lowest rates of third-order births at 4.9 percent and 4.8 percent respectively, with Telangana close behind at 5.0 percent. Karnataka’s rate is moderately higher at 6.9 percent.
When it comes to fourth-order or higher births, all five South Indian states show dramatically low figures, with Andhra Pradesh recording a mere 0.7 percent—the lowest in the country. Tamil Nadu is close behind at 0.8 percent, while Telangana, Karnataka, and Kerala report 1.1 percent, 1.5 percent, and 3.4 percent respectively.
Compare this with states like Delhi and Jammu & Kashmir, which have the highest percentages of first-order births at 82.4 percent and 79.4 percent respectively. These numbers likely reflect both low fertility and a trend towards single-child families, common in urban and economically advanced settings.
In contrast, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh present a different reality. These states have some of the lowest proportions of first-order births and the highest for third and fourth or higher-order births. Bihar, for example, reports only 46.3 percent first-order births but 16 percent third-order and 11 percent fourth or higher-order births.
In this context, South Indian states appear to represent a distinct and balanced middle ground—fertility is low, but reproductive choices are distributed in a manner that does not tip heavily into single-child households.
The rural-urban breakdown of birth order data adds further depth to the South Indian fertility landscape. In Kerala, second-order births in rural areas account for 35.9 percent of live births, while urban areas report an even higher 37.3 percent. Tamil Nadu follows a similar pattern with 30.9 percent in rural and 32.1 percent in urban settings.
Interestingly, the share of third or higher-order births remains low in both states. Kerala has 3.4 percent fourth or higher-order births in urban areas and 3.5 percent in rural areas. Tamil Nadu reports even lower figures—0.6 percent in rural and 0.9 percent in urban areas.
(Edited by Ananya Rao)
