South First-Peoples Pulse Pre-poll Survey: Joblessness and price rise are the key issues for voters

The Dharani portal — or the Integrated Land Records Management System, a flagship state government initiative to streamline land records — was mentioned by six percent, and four percent were worried about lack of roads.

Broadly, South First–Peoples Pulse Pre-poll Survey’s seats-share projections for Telangana’s 119-seat Assembly shows Congress has an edge in 57 to 62 seats. BRS is projected to have a lead in 41 to 46 seats. BJP is projected to have an edge in 3 to 6 seats and AIMIM in 6 to 7 seats. Others are likely to win 1-2 seats.

The survey also shows a vote share gap — over four percent — between the BRS and the Congress. Congress is projected to get 42.5 percent, while the ruling BRS is projected to get 37.6 percent.

Across the state, this discontent seems to primarily focus on the poor implementation of two schemes: The Dalit Bandhu, which promised ₹10 lakh to deserving community members to set up their own businesses, and the two-bedroom free houses — as well as voter fatigue with the BRS.

Related: South First-Peoples Pulse Pre-poll Survey predicts edge to Congress

Unemployment, MSP, agri loans 

South First pre-poll survey graphic – main issues

The South First–Peoples Pulse Pre-Poll Survey shows the disillusionment among youth (20-35 age group) is palpable, and they are backing the Congress, given the “perception that the BRS has failed” to fill up vacant government jobs right through its two tenures.

Twenty-four percent of the survey’s respondents highlighted unemployment as their main complaint.

It may be recalled that recruitment to government jobs was one of the central planks of the separate statehood movement. A large section of the educated-unemployed youth is angry with the performance of the BRS government in this area, and they may influence other votes in their households.

The survey shows that among the farmers, Congress is ahead of the BRS by nearly seven percent. For 14 percent of the respondents, MSP remained a challenging problem, while 12 percent said they had problems with agricultural loans.

Recently, the Election Commission of India (ECI) allowed the government to release the Rythu Bandhu funds to the farmers; whether the BRS benefits by releasing this payment is yet to be known.

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Methodology

The survey comprised two components. The first was a structured questionnaire with face-to-face interviews with a secret ballot, and the second was computer-assisted telephonic interviews (CATI). The total sample size for both components was 15,000.

Peoples Pulse conducted the pre-poll survey with the structured questionnaire and face-to-face interviews in 51 Assembly segments selected on the basis of Probability Proportional Methodology (PPM).

Four polling stations were selected from each Assembly segment using the Systematic Random Sampling. In each polling station, 20-25 randomly selected samples from the electoral rolls were surveyed.

A total of 4,500 samples were chosen such that the sample reflected the situation on the ground in terms of caste, religion, and age. Gender was given equal representation.

Peoples Pulse, a Hyderabad-based political research organisation, conducted the survey for South First, a digital news platform, on the ground for both the components. The technical support for CATI was provided by Codemo.

An Exit Poll would be conducted by South First-Peoples Pulse on 30 November. The results would be released at 7.30 pm.

The Peoples Pulse team comprised Bathula Suresh Babu, Gurram Muralikrishna, Sambasiva Rao, Muralikrishna Sharma, A Naga Raju, J Praveen, Ramchander, J Jagadeshwar, Sridhar, Pradeep, and Prashanth. They executed the field work, data analysis, and report writing.

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