While Rahul Mamkootathil’s victory reaffirmed the UDF's hold on Palakkad since 2011, UR Pradeep defended LDF’s dominance in Chelakkara, a constituency it has been holding since 1996.
Published Nov 23, 2024 | 7:46 PM ⚊ Updated Nov 24, 2024 | 8:22 PM
CPI(M) decision to field P Sarin in Palakkad was a calculated gamble to reclaim the segment. However, the Congress's deft move of engineering the defection of BJP leader Sandeep Varier once again sidelined the CPI(M). (South First)
The by-election results in Palakkad and Chelakkara Assembly Constituencies have reaffirmed the status quo, with both the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) retaining their respective bastions.
While Rahul Mamkootathil’s victory reaffirmed the UDF’s hold on Palakkad since 2011, UR Pradeep defended LDF’s dominance in Chelakkara, a constituency it has been holding since 1996.
These wins come with political implications, as both fronts view them as a precursor to the high-stakes local body polls in 2025 and the Assembly elections in 2026.
For Mamkootathil, the win was not just about becoming one of the 56 first-time MLAs in the 15th Kerala Legislative Assembly—it was a strategic hold on a constituency pivotal to the UDF’s strength.
Meanwhile, Pradeep’s victory underscored the LDF’s entrenched grip on Chelakkara, quelling any notions of an anti-incumbency wave.
Both camps were quick to interpret the results in their favour.
The UDF touted its decisive win in Palakkad and a commendable fight in Chelakkara, where it managed to slash the LDF’s victory margin compared to 2021.
On the other hand, the LDF celebrated Chelakkara as proof of sustained public confidence, while attributing UDF’s gains in Palakkad to BJP votes swinging toward Congress.
The Palakkad by-election, which initially promised a nail-biting contest, delivered unexpected outcome.
In a constituency historically marked by closely fought battles, the Congress emerged with a commanding margin of 18,840 votes—a first in its electoral history here.
This outcome carries significant political implications for the three main fronts—Congress-led UDF, CPI(M)-led LDF, and the BJP—as they reassess their strategies and prepare for future contests.
The Congress entered the fray amid internal strife. The nomination of Mamkootathil as its candidate triggered dissent within the party, culminating in the expulsion of P Sarin, the convener of its social media cell.
Sarin’s allegations of nepotism and hijacking within the party were a public relations disaster, handing the CPI(M) an opportunity to exploit.
Sarin’s defection to the LDF and subsequent candidacy could have been a major blow to the Congress, threatening to split its vote base.
However, Congress turned the tables with a covert operation, engineering the crossover of BJP leader Sandeep G Varier just days before the polls.
This strategic move not only split the BJP votes but also mitigated the fallout of Sarin’s defection, showcasing Congress’s ability to adapt under pressure.
The CPI(M)’s decision to field P Sarin was a calculated gamble. By embracing a disillusioned Congress insider, the LDF aimed to capitalize on Congress’s internal discord and attract its dissatisfied voters.
Adding to it was the Hindu voters. However, this strategy failed to yield the desired outcome.
Despite the controversy over a newspaper advertisement targeting BJP leader Varier in two pro-Muslim dailies, which aimed to consolidate minority votes, the CPI(M) ended up in its familiar third position, echoing its performance in the 2016 and 2021 Assembly elections.
For the BJP, the by-election was a bitter pill to swallow. Once a dominant force in Palakkad, the party’s internal discord and strategic missteps led to a steep decline in support.
The selection of C Krishnadas as its candidate sparked dissent within the ranks, with prominent leader Varier openly criticizing the choice.
Varier’s subsequent defection to the Congress just before the polls dealt a severe blow to the BJP’s vote bank, particularly in Palakkad Municipality, Kerala’s lone BJP-ruled local body.
The party now faces the daunting task of addressing internal divisions and revamping its electoral strategies to recover lost ground.
The by-election was marked by controversies, from the much-publicized blue trolley bag and midnight raid to CPI(M)’s provocative advertisements. While these episodes dominated the headlines, their actual impact on voter behavior remains debatable.
The blue trolley bag episode, which hinted at alleged malpractice, and the advertisement controversy added drama to an already charged election but failed to significantly sway the electorate’s decisions.
Congress’s resounding victory in Palakkad serves as a morale booster as it gears up for the local body elections. The result underscores its ability to navigate internal strife and emerge stronger, even in a BJP bastion.
For the LDF, the by-election reiterates the need for a rethink in its candidate selection and voter outreach strategies. For the BJP, the loss underscores growing vulnerabilities in its stronghold and the urgency of addressing internal fissures.
The by-election in the Chelakkara Assembly Constituency, part of Kerala’s Alathur Lok Sabha segment, saw the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) retaining its long-held seat, albeit with a significantly reduced margin of victory.
Pradeep of the LDF secured a win by 12,201 votes against Congress’s Ramya Haridas, who faced her second defeat within five months.
Chelakkara became a focal point of political activity, overshadowing neighboring constituencies like Palakkad.
The ruling LDF pulled out all the stops, with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and ministers PA Muhammed Riyas and others leading intensive campaign efforts.
Meanwhile, the UDF campaigned aggressively, spearheaded by KPCC president K Sudhakaran and Leader of the Opposition V D Satheesan.
For the Congress, a win in Chelakkara would have signaled an anti-incumbency wave against the Pinarayi Vijayan government.
However, the results tempered such expectations. The party argued that the reduced victory margin—from 40,000 votes in the 2021 Assembly elections to 12,201 now—indicates dissatisfaction among voters.
The LDF, however, countered this narrative by emphasizing the context of the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.
Chelakkara went to bypoll after K Radhakrishnan of the CPI(M), who represented the segment, won the Lok Sabha polls from Alathur.
The LDF highlighted that in the Chelakkara segment, Radhakrishnan had secured only a 5,173-vote lead against Haridas during the general elections.
In comparison, Pradeep’s improved margin of 12,201 votes was presented as a sign of the constituency reaffirming its faith in the LDF.
The bypoll has also delivered a blend of political surprises and significant shifts in voter dynamics.
Among the most notable outcomes is the BJP’s remarkable boost in vote share.
In the 2021 Assembly election, BJP candidate Shajumon Vattekkad garnered 24,045 votes, but in the bypoll, K Balakrishnan’s candidacy saw the party leap to 33,609 votes—a significant surge in a constituency known to favor the CPI(M).
For the CPI(M), this election presented a sobering challenge. While their 2021 candidate, Radhakrishnan, had secured a commanding 83,415 votes, the bypoll saw their tally dip to 64,827 votes—a steep decline in what has traditionally been a party stronghold.
The Congress-led UDF, meanwhile, showed a steady upward trajectory.
From 44,015 votes in 2021 to 52,626 votes in the bypoll, the alliance’s resurgence signals an increasing foothold in the constituency.
The bypoll also witnessed an increase in the voter base, with the total electorate rising from 1,98,086 in 2021 to 2,13,103. Despite this, turnout saw only 1,55,077 voters cast their ballots.
Another highlight was the electoral debut of independent MLA P V Anvar’s Democratic Movement of Kerala. Being projected as a social movement, the group fielded former Congress leader NK Sudheer, who secured 3,920 votes, finishing fourth.
While the numbers may seem modest, Anvar hailed it as a breakthrough, given the constituency’s reputation as a CPI(M) bastion.
The LDF credited its victory to its focus on development-oriented governance under Pinarayi Vijayan. Campaign narratives centered around state government programmes aimed at infrastructure development, welfare initiatives, and social justice.
CPI(M) leaders argued that these resonated with voters, helping them counter anti-incumbency sentiment.
On the other hand, the Congress pointed to a series of controversies and allegations against the state government since the general elections, which they believed could tilt the scales.
However, the failure to secure a victory in Chelakkara underlines the challenges the party faces in converting dissatisfaction into electoral gains.
For the Congress, the narrowed margin offers a glimmer of hope but underscores the need for stronger organizational groundwork and more resonant messaging. The party’s inability to reclaim the seat it lost in 1996 shows the enduring strength of the CPI(M) in this constituency.
For the LDF, the result is a relief, affirming its hold over Chelakkara. However, the reduced margin is a reminder that voter discontent, though not decisive in this election, cannot be overlooked.
The by-election results in Palakkad and Chelakkara have provided a fascinating snapshot of Kerala’s political landscape, offering both reassurances and warnings to the state’s three major political fronts.
For the Congress-led UDF, the emphatic win in Palakkad is more than a morale booster; it’s a clear testament to the coalition’s ability to rebound from internal turbulence and recalibrate its strategy when it matters most. But the loss in Chelakkara has provided them with something to ponder.
For the CPI(M)-led LDF, the reduced margin in its traditional stronghold of Chelakkara is a double-edged sword.
On one hand, it reflects the enduring trust of its grassroots base; on the other, it signals that voter discontent could become a chink in its armor if left unaddressed. The upcoming local body and Assembly elections will test whether the LDF can readjust its sails to maintain dominance.
Meanwhile, the BJP’s dismal performance in Palakkad is nothing short of a wake-up call. Once seen as a potential challenger in select pockets, the party’s sharp losses reveal deeper cracks in its organisational machinery and strategy, raising serious questions about its future trajectory in Kerala.
(Edited by Majnu Babu).
