Both the BJP and JD(U) are organisationally strong in Bihar. The BJP, buoyed at the grassroots by a robust cadre and the mobilisation machinery of its parent body, the RSS, is currently seeking to assert a superior position in seat-sharing arrangements.
Published Jul 24, 2025 | 7:00 PM ⚊ Updated Jul 24, 2025 | 7:00 PM
The electoral battle will be between Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party, Mahagathbandhan led by Tejashwi Yadav, and the NDA under Nitish Kumar.
Synopsis: As Bihar heads towards assembly elections, three principal fronts are locked in a competitive race: the BJP-led NDA, the Congress-led Mahagathbandhan, and the Jan Suraj Party led by political strategist Prashant Kishor. With the election outcome poised to reverberate through national politics, all eyes across India are fixed on Bihar.
Among India’s largest states, Bihar’s political landscape has always stood apart for its distinctive character. With a civilization dating back over two millennia — Patna, today’s capital, once the ancient Pataliputra — the state has long been the birthplace of coalition politics.
Since the fall of the Congress government in 1990, regional parties have called the shots for three and a half decades. National parties like Congress and the BJP have, time and again, had to rely on regional forces led by figures like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar.
As Bihar heads towards assembly elections, three principal fronts are locked in a competitive race: the BJP-led NDA, the Congress-led Mahagathbandhan, and the Jan Suraj Party led by political strategist Prashant Kishor. With the election outcome poised to reverberate through national politics, all eyes across India are fixed on Bihar.
Caste is arguably the most decisive force in Bihar politics. Economically, the state is recognized as one of India’s most backward, with a per capita income of only ₹28,485 — making it the poorest state in the country. Years of unstable governments have only exacerbated this backwardness.
After the 2020 assembly elections, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), then aligned with the NDA, briefly joined hands with the Mahagathbandhan, only to return to its previous alliance. That Nitish Kumar has donned the Chief Minister’s mantle nine times, while switching sides multiple times, underscores an era of palpable political instability.
Given this background, the configuration of alliances in the upcoming elections is a subject of intense curiosity. While the NDA is preparing to contest the polls under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, it is difficult to predict the BJP’s internal calculations. On the other side, in the Mahagathbandhan coalition led by Congress, Tejashwi Yadav, son of RJD founder Lalu Prasad Yadav, holds sway. Adding to this contest is the entry of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party, which is determined to test its luck in the elections.
Both the BJP and JD(U) are organisationally strong in Bihar. The BJP, buoyed at the grassroots by a robust cadre and the mobilisation machinery of its parent body, the RSS, is currently seeking to assert a superior position in seat-sharing arrangements.
For example, in the last assembly elections, JD(U) contested 115 seats and won 43, while the BJP’s 110 contests yielded 74 seats. Hence, the BJP insists on contesting more seats this time, whereas JD(U) points to the closely split results of the 2024 parliamentary elections, where both parties bagged 12 wins each, to argue for parity.
Within the NDA, the BJP commands support among upper caste Hindus and non-Yadav OBCs, forming a secure vote bank. The coalition’s appeal among women voters has been strengthened after Nitish Kumar’s recent announcement of a 35% reservation for women in government jobs. Road construction, a prohibition policy on alcohol, and various welfare schemes are likely to further bolster NDA’s prospects. The caste census initiated under Nitish Kumar’s leadership has also fostered goodwill among OBC communities.
Yet, all is not well for the ruling alliance. The NDA faces myriad challenges from its smaller partners. For instance, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), led by Chirag Paswan, is preparing to contest all seats independently, threatening to split the NDA vote. Another partner, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), is pressing for more seats, creating confusion and tension within the alliance.
Moreover, the NDA suffers from a leadership deficit: Nitish Kumar’s popularity has waned, and age-related health concerns only compound the problem. After 20 years of JD(U) rule, anti-incumbency is gathering force, while the slow pace of government job recruitment has left Bihar’s youth frustrated. If the Mahagathbandhan can successfully channel public anxiety over deteriorating law and order, the NDA could face real trouble.
For the opposition Mahagathbandhan, all hopes are pinned on Tejashwi Yadav, whose popularity as a chief ministerial hopeful has been noted in several surveys. He has effectively foregrounded pressing issues such as unemployment, the migration of Bihari youth in search of jobs, rising prices due to inflation, and lingering economic crises. The centenarian Congress remains a key partner, while leftist parties add crucial ballast. The coalition’s prospects are heavily dependent on consolidated support from minorities and OBCs—especially the Muslim and Yadav communities.
Yet, Mahagathbandhan’s chances hinge on amicable seat-sharing among its constituents, including the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP).
Congress, aspiring to play elder brother, is negotiating cautiously with the RJD after winning only 19 of the 70 seats it contested in 2020—a result that kept the coalition out of power. The RJD’s positioning as the largest party in that election, with 75 seats, has made it even more circumspect this time. While Tejashwi Yadav enjoys public support, the RJD’s history under Lalu Prasad Yadav—marked by allegations of corruption and lawlessness labeled as “jungle raj”—remains a liability. Another hurdle is whether votes among the coalition partners can transfer seamlessly, a perennial challenge for broad alliances.
Prashant Kishor’s foray into Bihar politics via the Jan Suraj Party is being watched keenly by political observers nationwide. Though the party enjoys some traction among urban voters and the youth, Bihar’s entrenched caste politics and existing alliance configurations pose formidable obstacles for a breakthrough. While Jan Suraj may seem vigorous on social media, its organizational strength is still weak, and mobilizing a state-wide campaign with its limited cadre will remain a challenge.
However, even if its chances of outright victory are low, the party is certain to split votes—potentially influencing the fortunes of candidates from both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.
As the major parties craft strategies for victory, the recent “Special Intensive Revision” (SIR) of the electoral rolls initiated by the Election Commission has sparked a national controversy. The opposition alleges that the SIR process, apparently designed to benefit the ruling party, is systematically deleting large numbers of voters on “suspicious” grounds—amounting, in their words, to a “massacre of democracy.” This concern has triggered widespread protests in both Parliament and on the streets of Bihar, prompting intervention and instructions from the judiciary to the Election Commission.
According to official figures, more than four million voters in Bihar are deemed “doubtful.” Of these, over 1.4 million entries are said to be deceased, over 1.9 million have migrated to other areas, and nearly 700,000 are reportedly registered elsewhere. The Election Commission admits it has no information on some 1.1 million voters. Authorities also claim that several registered voters are citizens of Bangladesh, Myanmar, or Nepal. The sudden emergence of these concerns—absent during last year’s Lok Sabha elections—raises eyebrows. While the need for a clean-up is not disputed, the timing, so close to the polls, is widely perceived as suspect.
With the JD(U)’s support remaining critical for Narendra Modi’s government in Parliament, the Bihar assembly elections have assumed outsize importance. Should the NDA return to power with a decisive majority, stable governments can be expected both in the state and at the Centre.
Conversely, should the results throw up surprises, dramatic shifts in Nitish Kumar’s positions would not be unexpected, as historical experience suggests. Even if the NDA wins, any change in the BJP’s stance toward Nitish Kumar could impact the central government’s dynamics.
Thus, with such intricate equations in play, Bihar’s elections stand to become the fulcrum of national politics. In this three-cornered contest—NDA, Mahagathbandhan, Jan Suraj—compounded by the contentious voter roll purge, the entire country is asking: which way will Bihar’s electoral compass swing?
(R. Dileep Reddy is a Political Analyst & Director, People’s Pulse Research organisation. Views are personal. Edited by Majnu Babu).
