In a multi-cornered contest, the DMK and its allies are sure to return to power in Tamil Nadu but an alliance between AIADMK, its partners and Vijay’s TVK could potentially deliver a death blow to the incumbents.
Published Jan 10, 2025 | 9:00 AM ⚊ Updated Jan 15, 2025 | 11:17 AM
A multi-cornered contest is 'advantage DMK' while a bipolar contest could mean a clean sweep for the Opposition.
In the run-up to the Tamil Nadu assembly elections 2026, the state has a charged political atmosphere. Parties eager to forge alliances, new entrants creating waves, incumbents facing public anger, parties fighting for survival, and leaders struggling to keep up inflated perceptions — Tamil Nadu is set to witness an epic electoral battle in 2026.
Despite the INDIA bloc crumbling in other parts of the country, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is confident that the Indian National Congress (INC) will remain a loyal ally in Tamil Nadu. DMK estimates that in a multi-cornered contest, the ruling alliance will have the edge over an anti-DMK vote divided between opposition parties.
But, the scenario might drastically change if opposition parties organise themselves into workable blocs. It could also mean that DMK will lose some of its allies. In simple terms, a multi-cornered contest is ‘advantage DMK’ while a bipolar contest could mean a clean sweep for the Opposition.
Currently, a multi-cornered contest in Tamil Nadu will perhaps have AIADMK, DMDK and allies in one corner; BJP and its current allies like PMK and breakaway AIADMK leaders like O Panneerselvam, VK Sasikala in another; DMK and its allies including Congress, VCK, IUML and Left parties in one; new entrant Vijay’s TVK in one corner; and Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) in another. If these equations were to change a bit, it could spell trouble for the DMK.
Even as the BJP is desperately attempting to stitch up an alliance with AIADMK, especially after the Lok Sabha polls debacle, the latter seems to think of the BJP as unnecessary baggage in an assembly election. For AIADMK, this is a do-or-die election. Although Edappadi Palaniswami has come to be an acceptable leader, he is not a J Jayalalithaa. With a waning vote share and splintering groups, Tamil Nadu assembly elections 2026 is Palaniswami’s only real chance at cashing in on anti-incumbency against DMK.
AIADMK is aware that it may not be able to defeat DMK and its allies on its own but recent surveys and new entrants into the political arena have shone light on new possibilities.
Given current surveys and trends, actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) may become the make-or-break factor in the Tamil Nadu assembly elections in 2026. Several surveys carried out by multiple agencies – including those done for DMK and AIADMK – estimate that Vijay may command between 15 and 18 percent of vote share in Tamil Nadu today.
“Community and caste-wise samples in one of the surveys show 33 percent Muslim+Christian population prefers to vote for Vijay. 36 percent Pallar and 37 percent Paraiyar votes too are in Vijay’s favour,” an office bearer of AIADMK, who did not want to be named, noted. These communities are strong voteblocks of the DMK, VCK, and NTK.
Vijay and his TVK’s surge, however, has a catch. Sources in the know of multiple survey data conducted in Tamil Nadu point to a phenomenon — Vijay’s polling numbers have now plateaued.
Whether TVK’s fortunes ascend higher or dip lower entirely depends on the actor-turned-politician’s next move. “In his debut election, with these polling numbers, if Vijay takes the Pawan Kalyan route and partners with strong parties to become Deputy Chief Minister, he would achieve what Vijayakanth never could or even Pawan couldn’t in his first 10 years in politics. The acceptance you see for Vijay is what MGR and NTR saw when they entered politics,” a political strategist pointed out.
Tamil Nadu elections. (South First)
If he were to leverage his popularity and break away from his cocooned approach, and instead, connect with the public one-on-one, Vijay may raise a storm in Tamil Nadu. Even without a mass public outreach, Vijay’s TVK is estimated to command, at the very least, a 10 percent vote share.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, with 133 seats, DMK’s vote share stood at 37.7 percent. With 66 seats, AIADMK’s vote share was 33.29 percent.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, DMK polled 27.21 percent vote share, although the party and its allies won all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu. Despite 20.6 percent vote share, AIADMK couldn’t win a single seat. Assembly elections are poised to be more favourable to AIADMK where state issues, not national matters, take precedence. That 10 percent vote share, estimated to go to Vijay, if added to AIADMK’s numbers could decimate the DMK.
Vijay’s indirect attack on BJP and DMK at TVK’s first public rally and his open support to coalition governments at the same event is a hint that AIADMK has not missed.
“The latent energy of Vijay and the form and structure of AIADMK will sweep Tamil Nadu if they come together. First-time voters, anti-DMK voters, and AIADMK’s traditional vote blocks will all come together. I expect nothing less than at least 10 percent vote share for Vijay,” a senior MP from Tamil Nadu opined.
AIADMK leaders agree. “Alliance with BJP cost us our vote in the 2016 assembly elections. There have been no talks with TVK so far but the general perception is that if TVK and AIADMK ally, then other parties like PMK will join. Left parties have been critical of DMK off late and may also join hands with a strong Opposition bloc,” an office bearer of AIADMK said.
The party estimates that if TVK and AIADMK were to join hands, Thol Tirumavalavan’s party – Vidudalai Chirutaigal Katchi (VCK) – too may hop on the bandwagon, especially since TVK is expected to eat into VCK’s vote bank.
None of the leaders are denying the possibility that Vijay may simply chart his own course, fight independently, and aim to sit in the Opposition. “At this point, Vijay is all noise and no work. Nobody has seen what he has to offer. AIADMK is in an existential crisis, DMK is in a succession crisis, Congress has lost bargaining power after Haryana and Maharashtra polls and BJP is inconsequential in Tamil Nadu assembly polls. But Vijay has no baggage,” said a Congress leader summing up the situation key parties are in.
All these numbers only matter if Vijay can build on the frenzy around his political entry and can ally with strong opposition parties. If his party’s momentum were to fall flat or alliances don’t fructify, the DMK would have a lot to cheer for, despite its internal rumblings and anti-incumbency challenges. After all, it isn’t new for Tamil Nadu to see leaders prop themselves up disproportionately and end up coming a cropper.
(Edited by Majnu Babu).
