In a state where the Congress has historically shied away from projecting a chief minister face before elections, this set off intense — though largely behind-the-scenes — debate.
Published Jul 15, 2025 | 4:25 PM ⚊ Updated Jul 15, 2025 | 4:58 PM
Shashi Tharoor facing Rahul Gandhi.
Synopsis: A recent pre-poll survey named Shashi Tharoor as the most preferred chief ministerial candidate in Kerala and stirred controversy. Experts examine the implications of the survey and analyse whether Tharoor could make any impact on state-level politics.
Thiruvananthapuram MP Shashi Tharoor — a member of the Congress Working Committee (CWC) — is no stranger to controversy, whether in Kerala or at the national level. His words, actions, and even social media posts are often interpreted as political signals, carrying the weight and risk as he is seen as more than just an MP.
The latest flashpoint came in the form of a pre-poll survey by Mumbai-based VoteVibe, which named Tharoor as the most preferred chief ministerial candidate in Kerala. In a state where the Congress has historically shied away from projecting a chief minister face before elections, this set off intense — though largely behind-the-scenes — debate.
Tharoor was quick to amplify the survey, sharing it on his X handle. Interestingly, the post — originally shared by a supporter — had tagged top Congress leaders, including Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi; the party’s general secretaries and MPs Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and KC Venugopal; and Leader of Opposition in Kerala Assembly VD Satheesan.
Tharoor’s move didn’t go unnoticed and was widely viewed as a strategic nudge to the party leadership.
However, questions remain: How credible is this survey? What does it reflect about ground reality? More importantly, who truly lacks political identity in Kerala — Tharoor or the Congress party itself?
The first reaction from the Congress circle after the controversial survey was made public was to discredit it and the firm behind it.
To investigate their claims, South First reached out to the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) and the company. The survey was conducted for VoteVibe by Ascendia Strategies LLP, which is registered in Mumbai.
According to MCA records, Ascendia Strategies is a Limited Liability Partnership incorporated under the LLP Act, 2008. It was officially registered on 13 February 2025 and last updated on 22 March 2025.
The firm’s records list Amitabh Tiwari as the founder and Nishant Prakashkumar Desai and Tiwari as designated partners. South First contacted Amitabh Tiwari, who seemed visibly thrilled about the sudden limelight the startup had received.
“We’re glad that our survey has sparked discussion in Kerala’s political circles, even though we’ve been conducting weekly surveys for some time now,” he told South First with a laugh.
Speaking to South First, Tiwari — who describes himself as a political strategist, commentator, and election analyst with around eight years of experience — defended the methodology of the survey.
He insisted that the process followed was “purely scientific” and relied on the CATI method (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing), a widely accepted survey technique also used by reputed firms like the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and Zee News.
“We chose random samples that reflect the demographic composition — across gender, age, geography, and class,” he said.
“Normalisation was applied to rate the responses, which is a standard practice in survey science. As you know, it’s impossible to have a perfect sample, but we tried to get as close as possible,
Tiwari confirmed that the survey was conducted after Operation Sindoor and acknowledged the element of recency bias in such exercises.
“We gave respondents eight UDF and six LDF options for chief ministerial candidates. From the Congress side, names included VD Satheesan, Shashi Tharoor, KC Venugopal, K Muraleedharan and even AK Antony. For the LDF, we had Pinarayi Vijayan, his son-in-law Mohammed Riyas, KK Shailaja, MV Govindan, .MA Baby and others,” he said.
While making his point, Amitabh Tiwari specifically highlighted the absence of a mass leader in the Congress following former chief minister Oommen Chandy’s demise.
“The vacuum is still evident. There is clearly a lack of a crowd-puller in the party right now,” he observed.
South First also probed whether the Mumbai-based startup had any presence on the ground in Kerala. Tiwari admitted they operated fully from Mumbai and had no field team in the state. As for the language barrier, he explained, ”Kerala is a highly literate state. Most understand English. We used Malayalam wherever needed to ensure clarity.”
He added that the firm has also conducted previous surveys on topics, including Operation Sindoor, 100 Days of (Delhi Chief Minister) Rekha Gupta, and the BMC elections in Mumbai.
Tiwari reiterated that their intent was never to spark controversy but to reflect public sentiment. ”We didn’t try to do anything deliberately, this caught on naturally, and we’re glad it’s being discussed in Kerala too,” he said.
To understand the impact of the row on Congress and Kerala’s political landscape, South First reached out to JS Adoor, a public policy expert who served for over 30 years at the United Nations and later as the chief of the public policy cell of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC).
Adoor was sceptical about the credibility of such surveys, calling them “media products rather than scientific exercises.”
“I take all surveys with a pinch of salt. Look at the 2024 general elections, the surveys predicted a landslide majority that never materialised. Even top psephologists got it wrong. The issue is not just about bias, it’s about methodology,” he said. He added that true surveys are expensive, time-consuming, and require rigorous sampling.
”A proper scientific survey, even a mini one, requires at least ₹50 lakh. That includes trained surveyors, travel, time, and follow-up. But what we now see is this: Trainees call 100 people over the phone, multiply the numbers, and a statistician packages it as a ‘survey result’. This is not how it’s done,” he explained.
According to Adoor, credible survey work, similar to the ones conducted by CSDS in 1968 or early NDTV efforts, relied on trained political science students and strict protocols. However, today, he said, most surveys are commissioned as part of media marketing strategies.
“Surveys today are part of the business model. The specific agency that conducted the Shashi Tharoor survey likely did a pilot for promotional purposes. Governance assessments, which I’ve led in 81 countries for the UN, cost crores of rupees and follow proper statistical procedures. These phone-call ‘surveys’ don’t meet any standard,” Adoor said.
Addressing the political controversies around Tharoor, Adoor said that while they dominate headlines, they are unlikely to significantly impact ground-level politics or upcoming elections, especially the local body polls.
“In Kerala, the dynamics of local body, Assembly, and Parliamentary elections are very different. Local body elections are grassroots exercises driven by local issues and accessible candidates. The controversy over the chief minister’s face or Tharoor’s statements won’t make much difference there,” he explained
Thiruvananthapuram, he pointed out, has its unique electoral history.
“In 2019, Tharoor had a strong showing due to favourable dynamics, but in 2014, his votes dipped. In 2024, they declined further. So, it’s not just about one person or one issue, patterns change based on multiple factors,” he noted.
He added that powerful BJP candidates — O Rajagopal, Kummanam Rajasekharan, and Rajeev Chandrasekhar — have all contested from Thiruvananthapuram, making it a high-stakes urban constituency where fluctuations are common. He also criticised what he described as deliberate media narratives.
“There is a clear effort by a few media houses to create the perception of disunity in the Congress post-2024. This is being amplified by self-styled ‘Congress enthusiasts’ who don’t even live in Kerala,” he asserted.
Referring to the controversy over Tharoor’s old article on the Emergency, he said, ”That piece was written 14 years ago. It was later translated into Malayalam and suddenly made controversial by the pro-CPI(M) media. Even Indira Gandhi admitted that the Emergency was a mistake — a position the Congress has officially maintained for decades.”
According to him, Tharoor never directly criticised the party, but his public persona is often interpreted through political lenses. “Media needs talking points, and Tharoor — being high-profile — becomes an easy target. But that doesn’t mean the Congress is fractured,” Adoor concluded.
When South First contacted Mini Mohan, a political ground researcher and a campaigner for Tharoor in previous elections, she expressed serious doubts about his prospects in Thiruvananthapuram.
“The recent survey won’t bring any real advantage to Tharoor,” she said and cautioned that if he ever decides to join the BJP, it could backfire.
“In that case, the high-range regions and CPI(M) strongholds will likely coordinate to block the BJP from gaining power. Those votes, which partly went to Tharoor last time, would be lost. He didn’t win solely with Congress’s support — some CPI(M) leaning areas and business lobbies had taken a favourable stance toward him. If he switches parties, he risks losing all of that. So if he takes such a step, it would be a foolish move,” Mohan noted.
Mohan added that while the BJP’s influence is rising within the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation area, with increased vote share and more elected representatives, Tharoor’s appeal may remain limited to urban sectors.
“In areas like Kazhakkoottam, where the IT hub is located, there’s visible youth support — but many of them aren’t registered voters there. So while it may influence propaganda, it won’t shift voting patterns. In that region, SNDP and Muslim voters play a major role. Even if SNDP leans toward Tharoor, Muslim voters might strongly oppose him,” she said.
“If CPI(M) decides to field its candidate, even Congress’s chances could be weakened. In fact, in past elections, the presence of a CPI candidate helped Congress by preventing a full-blown three-way fight. If CPI(M) and CPI swap seats, that could completely change the game,” she added.
Highlighting the role of state BJP President Rajeev Chandrasekhar, she warned, ”If Thiruvananthapuram turns into a purely political battleground, without funding support or a soft corner from other camps, nothing favours Tharoor. He must understand that.”
As someone who studies grassroots political trends, Mohan argued that Tharoor’s image is more illusion than substance.
“He carries a fake identity of a ‘global citizen’ given by the business community. But he has no real connection to ground realities. His reputation as a writer or cultural icon doesn’t help either — people see him as a right-wing intellectual. His book ‘Ambedkar: A Life‘ failed to generate meaningful discussion because many in the literary world rejected the idea of reading Ambedkar from a right-wing lens,” Mohan noted.
She added that Tharoor may be aiming for something beyond Indian politics. “From my perspective, he may be trying to return to the UN with support from Modi, given the global climate. He’s a clever man — he craves position and hierarchy. That may be another angle here,” Mohan said.
Mohan also criticised Tharoor’s lack of tangible contribution to the city. “He hasn’t done anything substantial for Thiruvananthapuram, despite his potential. He never made any strong interventions on key issues, like health or education policies, by either the union or state governments. This has led to questions within intellectual circles about his ideological stance,” she said.
“Is he an intellectual, a businessman, a politician, or a diplomat? No one can say. His identity itself is confusing,” she added.
(Edited by Muhammed Fazil.)
