Threats of both drought-like situations and cloud bursts of high intensity, with the potential to create landslides and flash floods, are looming large over Kerala.
Heavy rains lashed Kerala capital Thiruvananthapuram on 6 September. (KA Shaji)
After the driest August of the century, the southwest monsoon is gathering momentum across Kerala, albeit in the last leg of the rainy season.
However, farmers are worried about the almost complete absence of rain in the agricultural areas of Wayanad, Palakkad, Idukki, and Alappuzha.
“It’s an unusual situation where southern districts of the state witness copious rainfalls, while a drought-like situation continues to persist in paddy cultivating areas of agrarian districts like Wayanad. Different parts of the state face different climatic conditions and the farmers are badly affected,” said Rajesh Krishnan, who heads a paddy farmers’ collective in Thrissilery village in North Wayanad.
“In Wayanad, we are facing extreme difficulty because of the lack of rain, as there is an extreme water deficiency, making the transplanting of paddy seedlings impossible,” he added. Now, the rains are focused mainly on southern districts Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, and Pathanamthitta.
In northern districts Kannur and Kasaragod, the drought-like situation continues to persist. It is happening despite flood and landslide threats in Pathanamthitta district, where the third largest river in the state — Pamba — is overflowing.
According to Gopakumar Cholayil, senior scientific officer with the College of Climate Change and Environmental Science at Kerala Agricultural University, the state is expected to receive an average rainfall of 25-30 cm in September.
However, he opines that the September rains are unlikely to compensate for the deficit during this monsoon season.
“The rain calendar has changed drastically this year and farmers are the worst sufferers. Agricultural activities have been badly affected and areas like Wayanad and Palakkad are not receiving rain even during the current spell, which is worrying. Climate change has become a difficult reality across the state,” he said.
As per the Kerala Disaster Management Authority (KDMA) data, Kerala received excess rains only in 2013, 2018, and 2019 during the last decade. However, the deficit had seldom turned out of control. In 2016, the deficit was 35 percent for the whole year. However, the state is experiencing a 48 percent deficit this year.
According to S Abhilash, Associate Professor of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kerala has to be prepared for extreme weather situations as there are indications of the arrival of drought, despite isolated heavy rainfall, which can create flash floods and landslides.
According to him, sudden downpours causing landslides and flash floods can be expected across the state, despite the decline of rainy days.
Kerala is facing a 48 percent rain deficit, while the pan-India average of rain deficit is estimated at 8-9 percent. Gopakumar confirms that this August was the driest August in the last 123 years in Kerala.
Threats of both drought-like situations and cloud bursts of high intensity in smaller regions, with the potential to create landslides and flash floods, are now looming large over Kerala, according to climate experts.
In the renewed monsoon this week, two casualties have been reported from the Alappuzha district.
The deaths occurred in an accident on Sunday evening, when an autorickshaw driver carrying a family of four lost control of his auto in the heavy rain. The vehicle overturned and fell into the Achankovil river. While a woman died in the mishap, her son went missing.
The woman’s husband, daughter, and the autorickshaw driver were rescued.
The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) predicts the possibility of high waves and storm surges along the Kerala coast in the coming fortnight. Fishermen and coastal residents have been asked to be cautious, stay away from dangerous areas, and avoid beach trips or sea-related activities.
Instructions were also issued to keep fishing and other vessels safely moored in the harbour, and maintain a safe gap between the boats to avoid colliding with each other.
Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) officials said that three shutters of the Moozhiyar Dam had to be opened after the water level touched 192.63 m.
As the southwest monsoon witnessed a high deficit, climate experts could be more hopeful about the northeast monsoon, which is likely to arrive in October. They say that it will be weak this time in Kerala.
The state, which largely uses hydroelectric power to meet energy needs, is also apprehensive about the alarming depletion in the storage levels of dams across the state. The renewed monsoon is not strong in the catchment areas of most storage dams in the state, which makes the electricity board worried.
According to scientists in the India Meteorological Department, as per the long-period average of rainfall in September, the state will have to get a rainfall of 271.8 mm this month. However, wiping out the cumulative monsoon deficit in the four-month season would still be difficult.
May 12, 2024
May 12, 2024
May 12, 2024
May 11, 2024
May 11, 2024
May 11, 2024
