If there’s one takeaway from this electoral outcome beyond Shoukath’s emphatic win, it’s Anvar's remarkable performance.
Published Jun 23, 2025 | 7:17 PM ⚊ Updated Jun 23, 2025 | 7:17 PM
Aryadan Shoukath (wearing a shawl) recaptured the constituency for the Congress.
Synopsis: The Nilambur bypoll result is out: Aryadan Shoukath of the UDF defeated his nearest rival M Swaraj of the LDF by a margin of 11,077 votes. However, beyond the win and defeat, political Kerala took note of maverick politician PV Anvar, who came third without any high-octane campaign of stars seeking votes for him.
Nilambur has spoken — and it’s a voice from the past, reshaping the future.
After a decade-long lull, the Indian National Congress (INC) has reclaimed its political turf, with Aryadan Shoukath scripting a stunning victory in the Nilambur by-election. What was once his father Aryadan Mohammad’s unshaken bastion is now the backdrop for a comeback story with far-reaching consequences.
The result is a morale-boosting win for the Congress-led UDF and a bruising setback for the CPI(M), derailing its confident Pinarayi 3.0 pitch, especially as LDF lost its sitting seat, which it had won for two consecutive terms (2016 and 2021 Assembly Elections), though with an independent candidate.
Beyond the numbers, the result not only reopened the debate around PV Anvar’s future political home but also answers from CPI(M), regarding the back-to-back electoral defeats of one of its most dynamic leaders, M Swaraj.
At the same time, the electoral outcome has raised uncomfortable questions for both fronts ahead of a season of high-stakes elections: the crucial local body and Assembly polls.
Ever since the Nilambur Assembly constituency came into existence in 1965, the name Aryadan Mohammad remained synonymous with its politics. The Congress veteran and eight-time MLA held sway over the region, winning six consecutive terms and turning Aryadan House (his residence) into a nerve centre of Malappuram’s Congress affairs.
But in 2016, the unthinkable happened. His son Aryadan Shoukath, fielded by the Congress, lost to Left-backed independent PV Anvar by a margin of 11,504 votes — ending decades of Congress dominance in Nilambur.
The defeat not only unseated the party but also marked the beginning of Shoukath’s decline in regional politics, exacerbated by deepening factionalism within the Congress in Malappuram.
In 2021, Anvar retained the seat, this time defeating Congress’s V V Prakash.
However, the equation shifted dramatically when Anvar parted ways with the CPI(M) and resigned as MLA. Sensing a political opening in its once unshakable bastion, the Congress entrusted Shoukath with the mission to reclaim Nilambur. And he recaptured the segment.
In a symbolic reversal of fortunes, Shoukath stormed back to victory — defeating LDF’s Swaraj and independent candidate Anvar, who finished second and third, respectively.
The margin of triumph was no less poetic: 11,077 votes — eerily close to the number he lost by in 2016.
An emotional Shoukath, addressing the media after the win, reflected on his late father’s undying bond with Nilambur.
“My father held this constituency close to his heart. It pained him to witness UDF’s defeats twice in a row. He always urged us to win it back. Today, as we do, he is no longer with us. But I believe he is smiling from above,” he said.
Shoukath credited the victory to the people’s growing resentment against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government.
“This is not just a personal win — it’s the people’s verdict against the anti-people governance of the Left government. The people of Nilambur have echoed the mood of the entire state,” he declared.
Recalling how the 2008 delimitation stripped UDF of key panchayats like Chokkad, Kalikavu, and Chaliyar, Shoukath pointed out that even Aryadan Mohammad could secure only a 5,598 vote margin in 2011.
“After two consecutive defeats, we’ve bounced back — and with a margin of over 10,000 votes. The message is loud and clear,” he asserted.
Nilambur’s political theatre has witnessed many twists over the decades — but on this day, it delivered a moment of redemption, legacy, and poetic justice for Aryadan House.
When Sunny Joseph took charge as the new KPCC president, the Nilambur bypoll was his first major electoral test — and he passed with flying colours.
Sunny Joseph
Shoukath’s emphatic victory not only reaffirmed Nilambur as a Congress bastion but also marked a strong political statement against the LDF government.
Joseph faced a tough challenge: the CPI(M)’s choice of Swaraj as the LDF candidate, and the last-minute dissidence of Anvar, who jumped into the fray, threatened to complicate the contest.
But the new KPCC chief worked shoulder to shoulder with Opposition Leader VD Satheesan, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), and UDF allies to script a resounding win.
Speaking after the victory, Joseph called it a people’s verdict against the “anti-people policies” of the Pinarayi government — against price hikes, unemployment, farm sector collapse, wild animal menace, corruption, and the government’s repeated slights against Malappuram district and its people.
“This is not just Nilambur’s verdict, but a message from Kerala,” he declared. “The UDF fought as one team, and the people responded. This victory will energise our fight for the upcoming local body polls and the 2026 Assembly elections.”
He extended gratitude to party workers, UDF voters, secular democratic believers, and the national Congress leadership, adding that Nilambur’s result would power the UDF’s onward march.
Joseph acknowledged the presence of independent candidate Anvar as a factor in the contest. “Anvar has secured a notable number of votes in certain areas. A person who gets so many votes cannot be ignored. We will assess if any UDF votes shifted to him,” he told the media in Kannur.
Responding to questions about Anvar’s possible future association with the UDF, the KPCC chief remarked, “In politics, no door remains permanently closed. Even closed doors can be opened if there’s a will.”
The bypoll result has further cemented Opposition Leader VD Satheesan’s position.
VD Satheesan, the Leader of Opposition in the Kerala Assembly. (Sourced)
Beyond proving his mettle as an organizer and strategist, the Nilambur verdict highlighted a rare trait in Congress’s state politics — political clarity over appeasement.
The grapevine says it was Satheesan who strongly resisted Anvar’s entry into the UDF, though he maintains it was a collective decision.
After orchestrating victories in Thrikkakara, Puthuppally, Palakkad, and now in Nilambur, Satheesan’s stock in the state leadership has soared once again.
While social media celebrated him as the architect of Nilambur’s win, Satheesan humbly credited Team UDF.
The UDF reclaimed Nilambur — lost by 2,700 votes last time — with a commanding margin of over 12,000, he said.
Satheesan then highlighted it as part of a pattern: Uma Thomas doubled PT Thomas’s votes in Thrikkakara, Chandy Oommen quadrupled Oommen Chandy’s in Puthuppally, Rahul Mamkootathil secured five times Shafi Parambil’s in Palakkad, and Cherakkara’s 40,000 LDF majority was whittled down to 12,000 in the General Elections.
“Our political base remains intact. The LDF is bleeding support. In Nilambur, the UDF operated like a party — united and decisive,” Satheesan remarked.
He reiterated UDF’s promise: a landslide win in 2026 with over a hundred seats, powered by people’s growing anger towards the government.
“The people of Nilambur have lit the spark for a UDF resurgence,” he declared.
The Left camp in Kerala is in shatters. So are its supporters — including the literary and cultural icons who had once pinned high hopes on M Swaraj, the CPI(M)’s articulate, young and dynamic face.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan campaigning for M Swaraj.
Swaraj, a state secretariat member of CPI(M) and considered a firebrand leader with the potential to revive the party’s intellectual narrative, has suffered a crushing defeat in Nilambur. And with that, the Left’s carefully crafted political script for the 2026 Assembly poll lies in tatters.
In the 2021 assembly elections, Swaraj’s narrow loss in Tripunithura to Congress veteran K Babu by a wafer-thin margin of 992 votes had stunned the CPI(M).
His defeat back then was seen as an aberration — one that the party believed could be rectified with a well-planned comeback.
Fast forward to 2025. When Left Independent Anvar resigned, forcing a by-election in Nilambur, the CPI(M) initially toyed with the idea of fielding an independent candidate.
But realising the stakes, it turned to Swaraj — a native of Nilambur — hoping his reputation and oratory would turn the tide.
The CPI(M) left nothing to chance. Ministers campaigned aggressively, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan personally strategised, the LDF government’s resources were mobilised, and the party’s famed cadre machinery hit the ground. But nothing worked.
Of the total 1,75,359 votes polled, Swaraj managed only 66,660. UDF’s Shoukath stormed ahead with 77,737 votes — a clear lead of 11,077.
In the 19 rounds of counting, Shoukath maintained dominance from the very first round: 419 vote lead in the first round, 1,239 in the second, 2,286 by the fourth, 3,890 by the fifth, sixth 4751, seventh 5121, eighth 5960, nineth 5448, tenth 6402, eleventh 6831, twelfth 7687, thirteenth 8493, fourteenth 10035, fifteenth 10718, sixteenth 10482, seventeenth 10752, eighteenth 10526 and nineteenth 10928.
Swaraj managed to secure a lead in only three rounds — the ninth, sixteenth, and eighteenth — and that too by a meagre 207, 236, and 226 votes, respectively. Even in postal votes, Shoukath led by 149 votes.
What hurt the Left most was not just the margin, but the inability to even mount a serious challenge.
Nilambur, which the CPI(M) tried to transform into a political battleground, turned into a symbol of its electoral vulnerability. To make matters worse, it emerged that Swaraj was around 40 votes behind in his booth.
Speaking to the media after his defeat, Swaraj attempted to strike a defiant tone: “The Left made this election a political debate about people’s issues and the country’s future. We are proud of that. We will learn from this setback, strengthen ourselves, and move forward with boldness.”
He rejected the idea that the Nilambur result was a verdict on the LDF government’s governance: “If every by-election is taken as a referendum on governance, then it would mean the people rejected every administrative reform and welfare measure. That’s not the case here.”
He reiterated the party’s ideological position against communalism, insisting: “The right stance does not always get immediate acceptance. But it cannot be abandoned for electoral gains. Whether we win or lose, our struggle for the people and the nation will continue.”
Meanwhile, in his trademark style of hard-to-digest political arithmetic, CPI(M) state secretary MV Govindan dissected the Nilambur bypoll result — claiming that the UDF’s win came with the backing of communal forces and insisting the LDF still holds ground in the constituency.
MV Govindan, CPI(M) Kerala state committee secretary. (KB Jayachandran)
“Despite the result, the UDF couldn’t hold on to its 2021 vote share. They lost 1,470 votes this time. Nilambur has never been a seat we could win purely on LDF strength, but an independent with our support can tip the balance,” Govindan told the media.
He argued that anti-UDF sentiment had grown, and dismissed claims of an anti-government wave.
“They failed to raise a single serious issue against the government. The people know we act in their interest. And yes — corrections will be made if needed,” he added.
Govindan’s analysis, however, may be a tough pill for many within his party to swallow, as the bypoll outcome is being widely read as a reality check for the LDF.
If there’s one takeaway from this electoral outcome beyond Shoukath’s emphatic win, it’s Anvar’s remarkable performance.
PV Anvar contested as an independent with the backing of the Trinamool Congress.
Despite staying away from aggressive campaigning — unlike the LDF and UDF heavyweights — Anvar secured an impressive 19,760 votes, finishing third.
Contesting as an independent with the Trinamool Congress’s backing, Anvar has sent a clear message to Kerala’s two major political fronts about his enduring clout in the constituency.
For the UDF, the outcome raises a crucial what-if: Would Shoukath’s victory have been even more resounding had Anvar been brought into their fold?
At the same time, it also revives the old dilemma of managing the delicate Anvar-Shoukath equation within the front, should such a merger ever materialise.
Often criticised for what detractors describe as “blackmail politics,” Anvar is still seen by some within the UDF as a possible asset in the upcoming local body and Assembly elections. Yet, both Congress and IUML leaders insist that any decision on his entry would require broader deliberations — and that a hasty call is unlikely.
Speaking to the media after the results, Anvar dismissed suggestions that his votes dented the UDF tally. “I got the votes of those who are against Pinarayism,” he declared.
Notably, Anvar also appeared to soften his earlier hostility toward the Leader of the Opposition, Satheesan.
“I don’t have any personal enmity towards the Leader of the Opposition. If the UDF wants, I’m even ready to contest from Beypore,” he added.
This marks a notable departure from his previous claim that during talks over his possible induction into the UDF, he was offered a choice between Beypore and Malampuzha Assembly seats, both of which he declined.
With Anvar’s political stock seemingly intact, both the LDF and UDF, particularly the latter, will now be watching closely how this maverick player positions himself in the months ahead.
For the BJP, this election was less a battle to win and more a ritual of participation. Of the 1,75,359 votes cast in the constituency, its candidate Mohan George managed just 8,648.
As Kerala marches toward a packed election calendar, the verdict from Nilambur will linger — as both a warning and a window into the political mood. It also shows that no script is immune to rewrites, and no player can be taken for granted.
(Edited by Majnu Babu).
