Manorama, Eedina, Rudra poll surveys contradict big exit pollsters; Predict big losses for NDA in States

The poll however, indicates a bleak scenario for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Despite an aggressive campaign featuring high-profile leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, NDA will not be able to open its account in the state, it said.

This prediction starkly contrasts with several Delhi-media based surveys released on Saturday, which had predicted the NDA to secure 2 to 3 seats in Kerala. Almost all exit polls predicted that BJP-led front would open an account in Kerala.

However, it suggested that NDA candidates might perform strongly in specific constituencies, finishing second in Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta, pushing the LDF candidates to third place in these regions.

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UDF’s strong performance in Kerala

The LDF is expected to outperform its 2019 results, with the survey indicating potential victories in Vadakara and Palakkad, while Kannur and Alathur could witness closely contested battles.

The UDF is projected to achieve a vote share of 42.46%, slightly down by 4.76% from the last election, while the LDF’s vote share is estimated at 35.09%, showing a minor decline of 0.64%. The NDA, on the other hand, is likely to increase its vote share by 3.7%, reaching 18.64%.

Other exit polls presented varying predictions. The Times Now-ETG research survey estimates the UDF winning 14 to 15 seats, the LDF securing 4 seats, and the BJP capturing one seat in Thrissur.

Conversely, the ABP-CVoter exit poll suggests that the LDF might not win any seats, while the NDA could win between 1 to 3 seats.

The Manorama News-VMR exit poll highlighted significant dynamics in key constituencies.

In Thiruvananthapuram, Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar is trailing Congress MP Shashi Tharoor. The NDA has notably increased its vote share here by 3.99%, securing 35.25% of the votes.

In Pathanamthitta, BJP candidate Anil K. Antony, son of senior Congress leader AK Antony, is also projected to finish second with a 32.17% vote share.

According to the exit poll, UDF’s dominance extends to constituencies like Alappuzha, where AICC General Secretary K.C. Venugopal is expected to reclaim the seat from the LDF’s A.M. Arif.

However, the UDF faces challenges in Vadakara and Palakkad, where fierce competition may result in losses.

In Vadakara, the replacement of sitting MP K Muralidharan with Shafi Parambil MLA appears to have backfired, leading to a significant drop in vote share, according to Manorama’s exit poll.

Despite these mixed results, the UDF’s strong performance is evident across several constituencies. High-profile winners predicted by the exit poll include Shashi Tharoor (Thiruvananthapuram), Rahul Gandhi (Wayanad), and KC Venugopal (Alappuzha).

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Congress leads in Karnataka as per Eedina

In the latest pre-poll survey conducted by eedina.com, the ruling Congress party in Karnataka is projected to maintain a significant lead over others in the Lok Sabha elections.

According to the survey conducted between March 28th and April 14th, eedina.com predicted that the Congress might secure anywhere between 13 to 18 seats, with a vote share of 46.4%.

Meanwhile, the BJP-JD(S) alliance is predicted to secure 10 to 13 seats, with a vote share of 44.27%. The survey also sheds light on other political players, indicating that they might secure a 0.85% vote share.

While 7.42% of the electorate remained undecided, and 1.05% opted for NOTA (None of the Above). A significant 42,674 voters participated in the final pre-poll survey.

During the survey, voters were asked about pressing issues such as price rise, unemployment, the electoral bond system, the Karnataka government’s five guarantees, and their views on the 10 years of Modi government.

They expressed concerns about the rising unemployment rates, inflation, and corruption during the tenure of the Modi regime. However, despite acknowledging these challenges, voters seemed reluctant to solely hold the prime minister responsible for these issues.

Comparing the latest findings with the initial pre-poll survey conducted between 15 February and 5 March, before the announcement of the Lok Sabha candidates, reveals interesting shifts.

In the first survey, Edina.com predicted Congress would secure victory in 17 seats, with a vote share of 43.77%. Conversely, the BJP-JD(S) alliance was predicted to win 11 seats, with a vote share of 42.35%.

A total of 52,678 people participated in this initial survey. The final pre-poll survey indicates a marginal increase in the vote share for both Congress and the BJP-JD(S) alliance.

Congress saw an uptick of 2.64%, while the BJP-JD(S) alliance witnessed a 1.92% increase in vote share.

Also Read: Women voters and transfer of votes, the two decisive factors in Lok Sabha polls 2024

DMK dominance in Tamil Nadu

An exit poll conducted by Thanthi TV indicate a significant victory for the DMK-led INDIA bloc in Tamil Nadu, with projections ranging from 33 to 37 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, within a margin of error of +/- 3%.

According to the survey, NDA alliance is expected to secure the union territory of Puducherry along with 2 to 4 seats in Tamil Nadu. However, the numbers remain uncertain for the AIADMK.

The exit poll results highlight several key candidates and constituencies. Notably, DMK’s incumbent MP and former Union Minister Dayanidhi Maran, contesting from Chennai Central, is predicted to secure 41% of the vote share.

Similarly, Kanimozhi Karunanidhi, also from DMK and the sitting MP from Thoothukkudi, is expected to garner 44% of the vote share.

In Ramanathapuram, NDA-supported independent candidate and former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, is likely to lose to the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) candidate K Navas Kani, in a close fight, with a winning margin expected to be less than 2%, it said.

The exit polls also suggest a comfortable victory for DMK’s MS Tharanivendhan in the Arani seat, and is likely to secure 41% of the votes.

Meanwhile, in the Villavancode assembly bypoll, the survey indicates a lead for Congress’ Tharahai Cuthbert with a 47% chance of victory, followed by BJP’s Nanthini VS at 28%, and AIADMK’s Rani U at 14%.

Earlier opinion polls by Thanthi TV in April 2024 had predicted 34 seats for the DMK-led INDIA alliance and the lone seat of Puducherry for the BJP-led NDA alliance.

However, the fate of the AIADMK appeared uncertain, according to the pre-poll survey.

The Lok Sabha Elections in Tamil Nadu were conducted in the first phase of the seven-phased elections on 19 April, with all 39 seats in the state going to polls simultaneously.

Also Read: Rahul terms exit polls ‘Modi’s fantasy’; ‘bogus, ‘deliberate attempt’ to justify rigging

Exit polls in Maharashtra, West Bengal

In Maharashtra, according to Rudra, a reputable local agency in Mumbai, the seat distribution across parties is as follows: the NDA holds sway over 13 seats, with the BJP clinching 9, Shiv Sena (Shinde) securing 3, and NCP (Ajit Pawar) securing 1.

On the other hand, the INDIA Alliance commands a significant lead with 31 seats, divided among Shiv Sena (UBT) with 14, Congress with 12, and NCP (Sharad Pawar) with 8. Others account for 1 seat.

In terms of vote share, the NDA is set to secure 43%, the INDIA Alliance 46%, VBA 3%, and others 8%.

According to the ABP Ananda C Voter exit poll analysis for the total 42 seats, TMC is projected to win 13 to 18 seats, a decrease of 9 to 4 seats from their previous tally.

The BJP is expected to secure 23 to 27 seats, marking an increase of 5 to 9 seats. The INDIA alliance is predicted to win 1 to 3 seats.

The results for all phases are scheduled to be declared on 4 June.

(Edited by Shauqueen Mizaj)