Published Feb 28, 2026 | 2:40 PM ⚊ Updated Feb 28, 2026 | 2:40 PM
Congress.
Synopsis: The latest “Mega Pre-Poll Survey” conducted by Lok Poll between 9 and 24 February, based on a sample of 42,000 respondents (around 300 per constituency), projects the United Democratic Front (UDF) winning 81–86 seats with a vote share of 43–45 per cent.
After the Vote Vibe Poll projected an edge for UDF in poll-bound Kerala, another pre-election survey has predicted a decisive victory for the Congress-led UDF in the upcoming Assembly elections.
The latest “Mega Pre-Poll Survey” conducted by Lok Poll between 9 and 24 February, based on a sample of 42,000 respondents (around 300 per constituency), projects the United Democratic Front (UDF) winning 81–86 seats with a vote share of 43–45 percent.
The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is forecast to secure 51–59 seats with 39–42 percent votes, while the NDA is placed at 0–2 seats with a projected vote share between 13 and 25 percent.
Presenting our mega pre-poll projections for the poll-bound state of #Keralam, based on our ground survey conducted from February 9 to 24.
▪️ LDF 51 – 59 | 39-42%
▪️ UDF 81 – 86 | 43-45%
▪️ NDA 0 – 2 | 13 – 25%Sample size: 42,000, 300/… pic.twitter.com/TSzj1pzOe4
— Lok Poll (@LokPoll) February 27, 2026
According to the qualitative findings, the Sabarimala gold scam and related irregularities have significantly dented the LDF government’s credibility.
Visible fatigue among neutral and soft-Left voters is seen as a decisive factor tilting the scales against the incumbents.
Opposition narratives around misgovernance and corruption are reportedly overshadowing recently launched welfare schemes.
In North Kerala, Muslim vote consolidation — driven by AP Samastha’s shift towards the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and backing for the UDF — positions the front for a near sweep in Malappuram and major gains in Kozhikode, Kannur and Kasaragod.
However, the LDF is expected to retain pockets in Kannur and Palakkad, aided by strong organisational networks.
Central Kerala is projected to witness Christian consolidation in favour of the Congress-led alliance, especially in Thrissur, Ernakulam, Kottayam and Idukki, amid agrarian distress, wildlife conflicts and perceptions of a national anti-Christian stance by the BJP.
Fisherfolk anger and farmer resentment are also likely to swing key coastal and high-range constituencies towards the UDF.
In South Kerala, the LDF is expected to perform relatively better compared to other zones, though anti-incumbency among paddy farmers, cashew workers, government employees and ASHA workers could help the UDF make inroads in Kollam and Alappuzha.
The BJP is seen as confined to select pockets of Thiruvananthapuram, with limited statewide expansion.
Lok Poll concludes that alliance cohesion within the UDF, reduced vote leakage and community consolidation could translate into a comfortable Assembly majority if trends hold.
(Edited by Sumavarsha, with inputs from Dileep V Kumar)
