Published Mar 26, 2026 | 8:00 AM ⚊ Updated Mar 26, 2026 | 8:00 AM
VD Satheesan
Synopsis: After a decade in opposition, the Congress-led UDF sees the 9 April Assembly elections as a crucial opportunity to return to power in Kerala. Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan says the alliance’s strong performances in past by-elections and recent local body polls show its edge over the ruling LDF, predicting 100 seats for the front. In a conversation with South First, he explains his confidence, the rationale behind the party’s welfare guarantees, and why he believes there is a tacit understanding between the CPI(M) and the BJP.
After 10 years in the opposition, the 9 April Assembly polls in Kerala are a crucial chance for the Congress-led LDF to return to power.
The party faces not just the ruling LDF, which is pushing for a third straight term, but also a rising BJP that hopes to convert its expanding base into a sizeable presence in the Assembly.
Within the Congress, insiders acknowledge that another defeat could weaken its base and even prompt key allies, including the influential IUML, to rethink their long-standing association.
Still, veteran Congressman and Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan is confident the UDF will return to power with 100 seats.
In an exclusive interview with South First, he explains his prediction, the rationale behind the party’s decision to bring its “guarantees” model to Kerala, and more.
Edited excerpts follow.
Q: In the past, you have accurately predicted the results of by-elections, Lok Sabha elections and local body polls, even getting the voting percentage right. This time, you have predicted that the UDF will return to power with 100 seats. Do you think this is a realistic projection?
Across the country, opposition parties are losing by-elections. But here in Kerala, we won the first by-election in Thrikkakara following the demise of PT Thomas.
In 2021, PT Thomas had won that constituency with a margin of 12,000 votes. In the by-election, Uma Thomas secured a remarkable 25,000-vote margin. Similarly, in Puthuppally, Oommen Chandy won by 9,000 votes in 2021 and in the subsequent by-election, Chandy Oommen won with a 37,000-vote margin. In Palakkad, the previous margin was 3,000 votes, and in the by-election, we won with an 18,000-vote margin. Additionally, we captured one seat from the LDF with a significant margin.
In the 2024 parliamentary elections, we won with an even larger margin compared to 2019.
You know that the Panchayati Raj and Nagarapalika system was introduced in Kerala in 1994. After 30 years, we achieved an outstanding victory in the local body elections.
In Kerala, local body elections are political in nature. It is not like in other states. Our strong grassroots base has been a key factor, which is why I am confident in our projection of winning 100 seats.
Looking back, in 2001, we achieved a very strong result – 99 seats plus one independent in the Assembly.
However, from 2005 onwards, several social groups had drifted away from our fold. We observed this trend closely and worked diligently to bring them back. Today, around 90 percent of these social groups have returned to our side.
Meanwhile, the CPI(M) is experiencing significant internal shifts. Numerous leaders are leaving the party, reminiscent of what happened in West Bengal after 33 years of rule. Here, it is occurring after 10 years.
Within the CPI(M) rank and file, and particularly among a group in Kerala known as left “fellow travellers”—people who are not formal party members but hold leftist views—there has traditionally been a vote bank in every constituency.
We have been in steady contact with them over the past few years. Now, many of them are realising, “These people are no longer left, we are the Nehruvian left.” As a result, these left fellow travellers are returning to the UDF.
Today, the UDF is more than just a coalition of political parties. It has evolved into a broader political platform, encompassing parties, influencers, opinion-makers, various social groups, left fellow travellers and true communists. It is now a well-elaborated, inclusive platform. With this consolidated strength, I am confident that we will win over 100 seats.
Q: What is your prediction for your own constituency, Paravur?
I have predicted many election results, but I have never predicted my own constituency, Paravur. It is always surprising. What I thought in my mind was going to be more, because I have been representing this constituency for the last 25 years. This is my silver jubilee year, and every time, they have given me a higher margin than the last election.
I am the only legislator in Kerala whose margin has increased in every election. In 2001, I started with 7,000 votes, and in 2021, it was 22,000. This time also, maybe a magical number.
Q: Is the Leader of the Opposition all set to move from Cantonment House to Cliff House?
No, we have not declared a Chief Minister candidate. In Karnataka and Telangana as well, we did not announce a CM candidate beforehand, even though there were senior leaders like Siddaramaiah. After the election, there is a well-established, conventional procedure proposed by the AICC through which the leadership is decided.
We understand each other, and Kerala has a galaxy of leaders. That is the strength of our party. Decisions will be taken collectively with consensus. The claim that we are fighting among ourselves is merely a narrative pushed by the CPI(M).
Q: In the 2021 Assembly elections, Congress faced significant setbacks in central Kerala, particularly in districts like Idukki, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam and Ernakulam. Are you confident of reclaiming these seats this time?
Yes. We are confident of winning all 14 out of 14 seats in Ernakulam. Even during the Left wave in 2021, we managed to secure nine seats here. In Idukki, we lost all the seats, and in Pathanamthitta, we could win only one. Kottayam too witnessed a poor performance.
However, if you look at the local body elections, we won all the district panchayats, capturing them from the CPI(M).
Many social groups that had moved away from the UDF nearly two decades ago have now returned.
Q: The Congress guarantees have worked well for the party in states like Karnataka and Telangana. In Tamil Nadu, DMK is also giving similar schemes like free bus travel for women. But in a state like Kerala, are the guarantees feasible?
We conducted a very detailed study to assess whether these schemes are feasible in Kerala. Our findings show that the state exchequer currently has very limited resources. We have consistently criticised and exposed the government for this shortfall. However, we do have an alternative plan.
Through sound financial management, preventing leakages from the exchequer and tax administration, and stimulating the economy, we aim to replenish the state’s resources. We have specific programmes in place to achieve this.
For example, GST is a multi-point tax, and Kerala, being a consumer-driven state, should have been the top beneficiary in the country. Unfortunately, the state is currently seeing less than 10 percent growth in tax revenue. We aim to increase this to over 30 percent.
The proposed free travel guarantee for women is not a major financial burden and can be managed effectively.
Another critical area is healthcare. Kerala’s health system is currently under severe strain. We appointed a Health Commission, conducted a Health Conclave, and prepared a comprehensive health document.
To our surprise, out-of-pocket medical expenses in Kerala are the highest in India, at 70 percent. This was a shocking revelation. We have promised the people that we will reduce this by 25 percent in the first phase.
To implement this, we studied the insurance scheme introduced by Ashok Gehlot, former Chief Minister of Rajasthan. It is a highly feasible model, and we are confident that we can implement all the proposed guarantees effectively.
Q: There has been criticism that the Congress leadership is turning into a Nair monopoly, with little to no representation for the Ezhava community. Interestingly, this criticism comes from a caste leader. What is your take on this?
Our recent PCC presidents have all been from the Ezhava community. So how can anyone claim that there is no space for Ezhavas in Congress? Leaders like K Sudhakaran, Mullappally Ramachandran and VM Sudheeran are all from the Ezhava community, and they remain stalwarts in Kerala politics.
They have been at the forefront, serving as PCC presidents and MPs – Sudhakaran is still an MP and continues to be an active leader. In fact, VM Sudheeran will be inaugurating my convention.
Q: The Puthuyuga Yatra saw a massive turnout. What was the overall mood among the people?
It was widely regarded as the biggest yatra led by a political leader. Senior leaders, including AK Antony—who himself led a similar yatra 25 years ago—congratulated me. He said the Puthuyuga Yatra is the largest political yatra he has witnessed in his lifetime.
Traditionally, such yatras focus mainly on political attacks against opponents. However, during this yatra, we went beyond criticism of the government and presented concrete alternatives to key issues. We outlined a vision for the future of Kerala. For instance, we highlighted that the state’s healthcare system is in a critical condition and presented clear solutions, along with what we intend to do.
We also addressed the growing concern of brain drain, warning that if this continues, Kerala could become an ageing society within the next five years. In response, we prepared a comprehensive education document and proposed initiatives to strengthen the startup ecosystem. We plan to showcase multiple startup models, allowing people to choose, and will provide mentorship in management, technical fields and other areas.
In addition, we introduced several dream projects, including coastal shipping and aviation initiatives. These ideas were consistently communicated throughout the yatra, which saw impressive participation from youngsters.
At a time when youth across the country are distancing themselves from politics, Kerala stands out. Here, young people are engaged, hopeful and thinking seriously about their future. Our discussions also focused on the welfare of youth, women and the elderly. We are committed to protecting them and ensuring comprehensive geriatric care across the state.
For the first time in India, an opposition movement has undertaken such detailed groundwork, presenting well-prepared alternative policies and projects. This is precisely why the yatra became such a success.
Q: During the conclusion ceremony of the Puthuyuga Yatra, Rahul Gandhi said, “do not do a solo performance during a group dance.” Is that a warning for the Congress leadership in Kerala?
He said that there should be team spirit, nothing more than that. Only a united team can win. Individuals are irrelevant. That is why I always emphasise the term “Team UDF”. We have allocated all 140 seats among our partners, and for the first time, there was no dissent.
Q: You have raised a very serious allegation about cross-voting between the CPI(M) and the BJP in the 2021 Assembly elections. This time as well, you have alleged the existence of “payment seats”. What is the basis for these allegations?
In the 2024 Palakkad by-election, the BJP emerged as the second-largest force, while the CPI(M) was in a vulnerable position. This time, the CPI(M) has fielded a businessman from a minority community with the intention of splitting Congress votes, thereby indirectly aiding BJP candidate Sobha Surendran.
In return, the BJP appears to be extending support to the CPI(M) in several constituencies.
For instance, in Konni in Pathanamthitta, BJP’s former state president K Surendran contested in 2021 and secured around 32,000 votes, the highest ever for a BJP candidate in that constituency. However, this time, the BJP has allotted the seat to its relatively insignificant ally, BDJS.
Similarly, in Ranni, which includes the Sabarimala temple, the BJP is not contesting and has handed over the seat to another minor ally, Twenty20, which has little presence outside Ernakulam. Notably, their candidate has even stated that he will not raise allegations against the CPI(M) candidate over the Sabarimala gold pilferage issue.
In Ettumanoor, where the BJP secured around 13,000 votes last time, the seat has again been given to Twenty20. In Thrippunithura, where the BJP polled about 24,000 votes and even made history by winning the municipality in local body elections, the party has now chosen not to contest.
Moreover, BJP leaders have openly indicated a strategy to defeat me in Paravur. A former DGP and a senior BJP leader stated that, to defeat me, those in third position should support the candidate in second place. Since the BJP is in third position in Paravur, this effectively suggests a transfer of BJP votes to the CPI(M) to ensure my defeat.
