Researchers pointed out that while existing tests can confirm dengue infection, they do not predict whether a person will go on to develop severe illness. In around one in 20 cases, the disease can progress to severe dengue, leading to internal bleeding, shock, or death.
Published Aug 08, 2025 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated Aug 08, 2025 | 7:00 AM
The Institute of Advanced Virology in Thiruvananthapuram
Synopsis: Researchers at the Institute of Advanced Virology, Thiruvananthapuram, are nearing a breakthrough in early detection of severe dengue through a rapid point-of-care diagnostic tool that identifies specific blood proteins. The innovation, developed using machine learning, promises faster diagnosis and risk assessment, enabling timely clinical intervention and improved patient management.
Every monsoon, Kerala sees a rise in vector-borne diseases, with dengue among the most serious. While early symptoms often go unnoticed, the infection can suddenly become severe or even fatal.
Researchers at the Clinical Virology Department of the Institute of Advanced Virology (IAV), Thonnakkal, Thiruvananthapuram, are close to a breakthrough that could enable doctors to identify severe dengue cases much earlier than current methods allow.
IAV researchers pointed out that while existing tests can confirm dengue infection, they do not predict whether a person will develop severe illness. That, they said, is what their research aims to address.
The point-of-care diagnostic tool – a lateral flow assay device – could help reduce hospitalisations and fatalities in the state.
Dengue, caused by the mosquito-borne dengue virus, often goes unnoticed in many cases. In some, it causes high fever with body pain, and in about 1 in 20 cases, can develop into severe dengue, leading to internal bleeding, shock, or death.
There are four known dengue virus types (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4). Serotype DENV-5, which is sylvatic, has not been detected in Kerala.
Infection by one type does not protect against the others. A second infection by a different type increases the risk of severe disease.
During the monsoon, mosquito breeding accelerates due to warm weather, humidity, and stagnant water, raising infection risk.
Health officials emphasised that early detection and timely treatment remain critical to preventing deaths.
What sets the innovation apart is its potential to change how dengue is diagnosed and managed.
At present, dengue is usually detected four to five days after the onset of symptoms, according to officials – a delay that can result in complications such as plasma leakage, internal bleeding, or organ failure.
IAV researchers said they have used machine learning techniques to identify specific proteins in the blood that signal whether a patient is likely to develop severe dengue.
These proteins serve as biomarkers and can be detected in the early stages of infection.
The lateral flow device aims to detect these biomarkers quickly using a small blood sample. Officials say this would provide a fast, low-cost, and accurate method to assess risk levels.
“Leveraging machine learning, the Clinical Virology Department has identified specific proteins that show a marked difference in patients with severe dengue, which can be detected in the early stages of infection,” an IAV official said.
“By tracking the presence and levels of these host biomarkers, the IAV aims to create a rapid, affordable, and portable diagnostic tool that can not only detect dengue early but also predict the disease’s progression.”
This tool could help hospitals triage patients more effectively by identifying those who require closer monitoring and reducing unnecessary hospital admissions.
Health Department officials noted that the innovation has practical relevance in a state that sees seasonal dengue outbreaks.
With continued support and collaboration, the device could help clinicians intervene earlier, lower fatalities, and manage healthcare resources more efficiently.
“This innovation could be a game-changer in clinical management of dengue,” said an epidemiologist with the state health services.
“By identifying patients at risk of severe complications early on, doctors can prioritise care, start targeted interventions sooner, and potentially save lives, especially during outbreaks when hospital resources are stretched thin,” the Health department official added.
Kerala has recorded 7,403 confirmed dengue cases and 28 deaths so far this year, along with 21,911 suspected cases and 12 suspected deaths.
In the first five days of August alone, health authorities recorded 207 confirmed and 497 suspected cases, suggesting a steady rise as the monsoon progresses.
According to the National Centre for Vector Borne Diseases Control, the state’s dengue burden has worsened in recent years.
In 2024, Kerala recorded 20,674 confirmed cases and 128 deaths, up from 17,426 cases and 153 deaths in 2023.
“One of the biggest challenges in diagnosing dengue early is that its initial symptoms—like fever, headache, and body pain—are nonspecific and mimic common viral infections such as flu or viral fever,” said an infectious disease specialist at a Government Medical College Hospital.
The official added, “It’s only after a few days, when warning signs like low platelet count or plasma leakage appear, that we can definitively identify it as dengue. By then, the disease may have already advanced.”
