Following the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections, the political parties are engaged in strategic deliberations and tactical evaluations.
Voters at a polling booth in Kerala on Friday, 26 April, 2024. (Supplied)
Following the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections, during which Kerala voted on whom it would send to the Lower House of Parliament, the state has undergone a subtle shift — from campaign fervour to a calculated analysis of probabilities.
Amidst the suspenseful pause before the final verdict, the political parties now find themselves engaged in strategic deliberations and tactical evaluations.
At the same time, the parties, political scientists, and psephologists alike are also pondering a crucial question: What triggered a remarkable dip in the voter turnout in the state?
The state recorded a 77.84 percent voter turnout in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but that dropped to 71.27 percent this year.
The dip has raised more questions than answers for all the stakeholders.
G Gopakumar, a psephologist and former vice-chancellor of the Central University of Kerala in Kasaragod, told South First that in a state that is hailed as a bastion of political consciousness and where every election witnesses a vibrant display of democratic fervour, the low voter turnout demanded an introspection.
“I would say it’s surprising,” said Gopakumar, adding, “The three major political fronts in the state — UDF, LDF, and NDA — carried out intense campaigning. The voter turnout was low despite that. It needs to be examined.”
According to him, four factors might have contributed to the dip in voter participation. “First is definitely the harsh summer conditions in the state. It might have dampened the spirits of the voters,” said Gopakumar.
Though there was the option to cast a vote from home, it was limited to senior citizens aged above 85 and persons whose disabilities affected more than 40 percent of their body, he noted.
“Those above 60 years are considered senior citizens. In Kerala, the percentage of voters aged 60 and over is comparatively high. People in this category, however, have a range of ailments, and we can’t expect them to stand in queues at the polling stations in this searing heat,” explained Gopakumar.
The second reason, according to him, was anomalies in the electoral rolls.
“Ours is a moving population. That is, many have migrated to other states or foreign countries for education or employment. Their names might have been included in the electoral rolls. The possibility is voters who are dead, permanently relocated, or absent might also have been included in the electoral rolls,” said Gopakumar.
The third reason, as cited by him, is the political reasons.
“The voters might get influenced by political developments like rumours of leaders joining other political parties and corruption. They might think, ‘Why should we go to the polling station when the political conditions are like this?’ Thus, they would not even bother to press NOTA (none of the above),” said Gopakumar.
The fourth reason was not limiting the maximum number of voters in a polling station to 1,000 or 1,100.
“The Election Commission of India (ECI) could think of adding more polling stations to ease the crowding at booths. It could also think of extending the polling time. The ideal time will be from 7 am to 7 pm. A pooling station dealing with 1,500 voters will only dampen the spirits of voters,” said Gopakumar.
Meanwhile, Dr Sajad Ibrahim KM, a professor at the Department of Political Science of the University of Kerala, told South First that only the results would tell whether the dip in voter turnout had had any effect.
“In a democratic setup, a fall in voter turnout is not a good sign. But whether it affected the electoral process can only be determined once the results are out,” he noted.
“My take is that the state has a committed voter population, and they all voted. It might be those belonging to the upper middle class who had not become a part of the process,” explained Sajad.
On its part, Congress is up in arms against the regional election office in Kerala, accusing it of “terrible mismanagement of the Lok Sabha election held in the state on 26 April”.
The Leader of the Opposition (LoP) VD Satheesan on 27 April wrote a letter to Chief Election Commissioner of India Rajiv Kumar in this regard.
He said that the voting process “was made extremely laborious” due to the “lackadaisical attitude of the officials”. He also demanded a comprehensive probe.
According to him, the gross mismanagement created significant delays in many booths. He also pointed out that due to this undue delay, many voters returned from numerous booths after standing in line for hours in the blazing heat.
The LoP also brought up EVM malfunction and instances of double votes and obsolete votes due to a lack of sanitisation of the voters’ list.
Congress also raised the allegation that though the ECI stipulated that the maximum number of voters in a polling booth should be 1,400, several booths in Kerala had more than 1,400 voters.
According to CPI(M) state secretary MV Govindan, though there was a dip in voter turnout, it would not affect the Left’s prospects.
“Our assessment is that all our votes came. The dip happened in areas where the UDF had influence. The low voter turnout is going to affect them, not us,” said Govindan.
Amidst complaints from various quarters regarding delays in voting at some polling stations, Kerala Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Sanjay M Kaul on 27 April said polling was delayed in some booths due to extra vigilance by officials to ensure accuracy.
“Polling was completed in 95 percent of the 25,231 polling booths in the state by 6 pm. Then, polling was completed in 99 percent of the booths by 8 pm. Only a few booths in the Vadakara constituency reported polling beyond 8 pm,” he said.
According to him, a large number of voters arrived at some polling booths in this constituency after 5 pm.
Thus, officials became extra cautious and focused on ensuring the veracity of the voters by checking their IDs.
“Naturally, it took more time and thereby the delay,” Kaul was quoted as saying in a statement.
Responding to complaints that the polling officials were inexperienced, the CEO said the officials were a mix of experienced and inexperienced ones, and all were provided adequate training.
The commission, which registered satisfaction on the performance of EVMs, also observed that “considering the adverse weather conditions and political conditions, the state has witnessed a good turnout”.
The CEO on 29 April released the final voter turnout stats of the state. It showed a voting rate of 71.27 percent.
Constituency-wise, the rates were (in percent):
(Edited by Arkadev Ghoshal)
May 17, 2024
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