Published Jan 25, 2026 | 3:03 PM ⚊ Updated Jan 25, 2026 | 9:49 PM
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan during the state conference
Synopsis: There is a strong belief within the CPI(M) that Pinarayi Vijayan will contest the Assembly in the upcoming elections and will take up the chief minister’s mantle if the LDF gets a majority. However, he may not be the Opposition leader if the Front doesn’t register a third consecutive win.
Alongside the sculptures of CPI(M) veterans EK Nayanar and Chadayan Govindan, a carving of a smiling Kodiyeri Balakrishnan in granite stands quietly at Payyambalam Beach in Kannur, watching the Arabian Sea roll in.
A little more than five years ago, the CPI(M) granted leave to Balakrishnan on medical grounds. Kerala was then on the verge of electing its 15th Legislative Assembly.
The party drew up norms, which saw several prominent leaders dropped — or sidelined as the Opposition would prefer to term it — from the candidate list. KK Shailaja, internationally hailed as the “Rock Star” and “Corona Slayer“, was one among them.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had then risen to the status of protector, his daily media briefings on the Covid-19 status instilling courage in the multitude rocked by an unknown pandemic.
The LDF retained power in the Assembly election that followed, and Vijayan remained the undisputed leader and the chief minister.
Almost five years later, Kerala is heading towards another election. The first question that crossed many minds was whether he would stand aside.
Apparently, no, it is becoming clearer. CPI(M) General Secretary MA Baby reaffirmed on Sunday, 18 January, that Vijayan will lead the LDF and the party in the upcoming Assembly elections.
Vijayan, undoubtedly, is the tallest leader in the CPI(M) now, party sources confirmed. However, a political analyst noted the absence of a second-rung leadership in the party, a vacuum, or the absence of a popular and acceptable face that could replace 80-year-old Vijayan.
Analyst Joseph C. Mathew explained: “Pinarayi seems to have a ‘Perumthachan complex’ that prevents others from growing.”
According to Aithihyamala, a collection of Malayalam folklores, Raman, who earned the title Perumthachan, a master carpenter or craftsman, faked an accident by dropping his chisel from a height to kill his son, whose expertise he feared would earn more fame than him.
Mathew, however, opined that Vijayan might hand over power to someone else after leading the party and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) to yet another electoral win.
As polls draw closer, Dharmadam, an Assembly constituency in Kannur Vijayan represents in the Assembly, is once again in the political limelight.
Dharmadam Assembly constituency was formed after the 2008 delimitation process.
The constituency comprises eight panchayats: Chembilode, Kadambur, Peralassery, Dharmadam, Pinarayi, Muzhappilangad, Vengad, and Ancharakandi. Since its formation, it has consistently leaned towards the Left.
In 2011, LDF candidate KK Narayanan of CPI(M) was elected to the Legislative Assembly with a majority of 15,162 votes over the Congress. In 2016, the constituency overwhelmingly chose Vijayan with a majority of 36,905 votes.
In the 2020 local body elections, when the state broadly supported the ruling LDF government, CPI(M) secured a lead of 49,180 votes in Dharmadam. Even during the last local body elections, which saw a wave in favour of the UDF across Kerala, voters in Dharmadam stayed with the LDF.
At the panchayat level, the UDF has picked up ground in Kadambur and Vengad, while the LDF’s lead has narrowed in Chembilode and Ancharakandi. Still, a strong showing in Pinarayi Panchayat helped the LDF retain a comfortable overall lead.
Voter turnout in the constituency has also been consistently high- 83.33% in the 2021 assembly elections and 80.01% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In the 2021 Assembly polls, the vote shares were 59.61% for CPI(M), 28.33% for INC, and 9.13% for BJP. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, CPI(M) received 44.85%, INC 43.21%, and BJP 10.44% of the votes.
Dharmadam’s voting trends reflect both the organisational strength of the CPI(M) and the personal popularity of Vijayan. The constituency continues to be a stronghold for the Left, making it a key area to watch in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections.
Speaking to South First, sources in CPI(M) confirmed three things: Pinarayi Vijayan will contest again from Dharmadam, if LDF wins, he will continue as the Chief Minister, and if LDF loses, he will not be the Opposition leader in the Assembly.
File photo of KK Shailaja. (X)
“Pinarayi Vijayan will turn 80 this May, but age hasn’t been a major issue in the past. VS Achuthanandan contested the Kerala Assembly elections in 2016 at the age of 92. Moreover, Pinarayi may once again allocate a seat to Congress (S) leader and minister Ramachandran Kadannappally in the upcoming polls, so he will not be the only exception,” a source said.
Dharmadam is a cadre constituency, a CPI(M) stronghold. Vijayan doesn’t need to campaign personally here—he won by 36,905 votes in 2016 and increased his majority to 50,123 in 2021. Local body elections also favour LDF, with the alliance winning eight Grama Panchayats in the constituency.
This allows him to manage statewide campaigning without worrying about his own seat.
Advocate K Anilkumar, CPI(M) spokesperson and State Committee member, told South First that Pinarayi Vijayan is the mastermind behind Navakeralam, a vision the party aims to realise by 2031.
”He is the visionary driving the project. To achieve this goal, we need him at the forefront to provide leadership. That is why we prefer a third term for him and are projecting him to lead the front” he said.
However, some cadres feel he may not contest from Dharmadam this time. Ratheesh Thazhathangadi, CPI(M)’s Kottayam district committee member, told South First, ”The chances of Pinarayi contesting are less. There’s no hint in recent party meetings. He will definitely lead campaigns across the state.
Being a genuine leader, he may voluntarily step aside, as he is also managing health issues. Young leaders like M Swaraj need to be accommodated in safe seats like Dharmadam. Congress is fielding youngsters, so CPI(M) can’t ignore its young politicians.”
The vacuum left by Balakrishnan’s absence is visible, and with changing voting patterns in Assembly elections, the Dharmadam seat and its strong cadre base remain a key factor for LDF.
The LDF, under the leadership of Vijayan, staged a strong return to power in the 2016 Assembly elections by winning 91 of the 140 seats. The mandate became even stronger in 2021, when the LDF improved its tally to 99 seats.
During his tenure as the party secretary, Pinarayi Vijayan had strongly opposed the worship of the then Chief Minister VS Achuthanandan.
Within the Left, these back-to-back victories are seen as clear validation of Vijayan’s leadership and political authority.
General Secretary Baby has underlined that the Chief Minister remains the most visible, capable and popular leader within the Front.
Baby also addressed questions surrounding the CPI(M)’s two-term norm, which was enforced during the 2021 elections and led to several sitting legislators being denied tickets after completing two consecutive terms.
”Such conditions were introduced in a particular context and need not automatically continue. The party would review the prevailing political situation before deciding on candidate selection norms. Baby told South First, adding that the CPI(M) Central Committee has not yet held discussions on whether the two-term restriction will apply in the 2026 elections.
Local political voices in Dharmadam have also shared their views on Vijayan’s possible candidature. K Narayanan, CPI(M) member and vice-president of the Dharmadam panchayat, told South First that no election-related work has begun at the grassroots level.
”At present, we are focused on the SIR (Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls) process, as many names have been missing from the voters’ list. If Pinarayi Vijayan contests again from Dharmadam, he will definitely win with a larger majority than last time” he said.
Narayanan attributed this confidence to what he described as significant development in the constituency.
”The developmental activities here are commendable. Several educational institutions have seen major changes, including Brennen College in Thalassery. Rural tourism projects are coming up, road connectivity has improved, infrastructure has developed over the years, and Dharmadam is emerging as an educational hub. Above all, Pinarayi Vijayan is a stable, genuine, and non-corrupt leader — that remains his biggest strength” he added.
However, a contrasting view was offered by Niyas T, former SDPI representative from the Muzhappilangad panchayat.
He told South First that ”Dharmadam is a communist land, and Pinarayi Vijayan is a local hero here. He will win if he contests, but the majority is likely to dip” he said.
Niyas argued that minority support, particularly among Muslims, may not be as strong as in previous elections.
”In earlier elections, many Muslims voted for Pinarayi Vijayan beyond party lines, believing he would return as Chief Minister. This time, that confidence may not be there. Even Muslims within the CPI(M) feel a loss of trust due to repeated attacks on minorities, controversial remarks, and what they see as his silence on such issues” he said.
He also pointed to developmental concerns at the local level. ”Many believe the party has distanced itself from its core communist values” Niyas added.
At the same time, he noted that opposition parties lack strong, constituency-specific issues against Vijayan.
”Beyond generic attacks such as the Sabarimala gold theft controversy or the state’s financial crisis, there is little that directly targets Pinarayi Vijayan in Dharmadam. A general political campaign is expected, rather than a focused personal attack” he said.
Political analyst Joseph C. Mathew told South First that Vijayan is a towering figure.
“But he doesn’t allow any other leader to rise to his level. He decided on a no two-term rule for ministers, set an age limit, and controls almost all decisions—not the party,” he said.
Mathew said the period when VS Achuthanandan was the chief minister was different. “Eight party secretariat members had then contested the Assembly elections, so he had little power in ministerial appointments.”
He then proceeded to raise a serious doubt.
“Where are potential leaders like KK Shailaja, TM Thomas Isaac, MA Baby, K Radhakrishnan and others? Pinarayi seems to have a ‘Peruthachan complex’ that prevents others from growing.”
”This election, he might contest and then hand over power to someone else if the party comes to power. Everyone is talking about Navakerala and Mission 2031, but who drafts these policies?” he wondered.
Traditionally, policy experts prepared documents before elections, which were then fed into the manifesto. “This isn’t happening in the LDF now. The chief minister himself presented a Navakerala document to the party, which is unusual. Earlier, even Sitaram Yechury had opposed such moves, but now there’s a vacuum—no one questions him,” Mathew said.
”Projects like ‘Work Near Home’ and K-FON (Kerala Fibre Optic Network) already existed. There’s nothing new. The only highlight is welfare schemes, which are still inadequate for the state. Meanwhile, the health and education sectors are mired in controversies,” he opined.
He further said the party seemed to be in a defensive mode, reacting whenever the chief minister or the government is criticised.
“No one really knows who is planning Kerala’s policies—there’s no clear answer when we ask about the author of the Navakerala policy,” Mathew added.
(Edited by Majnu Babu).
