Palakkad and Chelakkara will vote for their representatives in the state assembly, while Wayanad will vote for its representative in the Lok Sabha. BJP’s growing popularity and Congress’ infighting makes Palakkad a nail-biter.
Published Oct 17, 2024 | 9:49 AM ⚊ Updated Oct 17, 2024 | 7:47 PM
Palakkad-Chelakkara-Wayanad By-polls probable and official candidates. (X)
Barely five months after the dust settled on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Kerala is gearing up for yet another electrifying political battle, with by-polls scheduled in three constituencies on 13 November.
Palakkad and Chelakkara will vote for their representatives in the state assembly, while Wayanad will vote for its representative in the Lok Sabha.
The Palakkad Assembly Constituency will be keenly watched since the contest is reportedly a close one and the BJP candidate is seen to be a strong contender.
Palakkad Legislative Assembly Constituency (LAC), represented by the Congress since 2011, spans the Palakkad municipality and key grama panchayats — Kannadi, Pirayiri, and Mathur.
This region has a robust RSS presence, and the BJP candidate finished second in the last two Assembly elections. In 2016, the BJP fielded firebrand leader Sobha Surendran, and in 2021, it pinned its hopes on E Sreedharan, the celebrated ‘Metroman.’
While the Congress held firm both times, the BJP’s rising vote share signals that the saffron party may finally be closing in on a win. Adding to its confidence is its recent victory in the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency. The BJP faces a hurdle, though, infighting.
Party insiders suggest that two names are in contention — Sobha Surendran and C Krishnakumar. Krishnakumar was the BJP’s pick for the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and some in the party believe he deserves another shot.
There are rumours that Padmaja Venugopal, who recently defected from Congress, could also be in the contest for the BJP ticket here. The name of Sandeep G Varier, BJP state committee member, is also doing the rounds.
For the Congress, the by-election represents both an opportunity and a challenge. Holding onto Palakkad is critical to maintain momentum after its recent successes, but the party must also manage internal dissent.
P Sarin, who turned out to be a vocal critic of the leadership, has questioned the selection process for the by-election, leaving the party scrambling to contain the fallout.
Some Congress loyalists are unhappy with the way Rahul’s candidacy got stamped. It is alleged that despite being a non-native of Palakkad, he was chosen solely because of former Palakkad MLA Shafi Parambil’s backing. If Congress hopes to retain Palakkad, it will need to smooth over these cracks quickly.
Meanwhile, the CPI(M) finds itself in a delicate position. In both the 2016 and 2021 Assembly polls, the party finished a distant third. While it secured second place in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections , it still struggles to gain a decisive foothold in Palakkad.
The party is yet to decide whether it will field CP Pramod or NN Krishnadas. Another potential candidate is A Vijayaraghavan, the Polit Bureau member who ran for the Palakkad Lok Sabha seat earlier this year.
However, the CPI(M) is also reportedly keeping a close eye on developments within the Congress, especially on P Sarin, hinting at the possibility of cross-party maneuvering.
In the case of Palakkad LAC, minority votes – of Christians and Muslims – will be crucial. The BJP looks to Ezhava votes; traditionally Ezhava voters have backed the CPI(M).
Chelakkara in Thrissur district is a long-standing stronghold of the CPI(M). This constituency presents an uphill battle for the Congress candidate Ramya Haridas, who hopes for a historic breakthrough.
However, storming this political fortress — fortified for nearly three decades — will require more than just a strong candidate.
The challenge lies not only in dismantling the CPI(M)’s dominance but also in addressing the vulnerabilities that cost Ramya dearly in the 2024 General Elections.
Nestled within the Alathur Lok Sabha constituency, Chelakkara Assembly segment comprises eight grama panchayats. Since 1996, the CPI(M) has maintained an iron grip over the constituency, reinforcing its ideological and electoral presence election after election.
Such a well-entrenched force can only be dismantled with precise political strategy and intense grassroots engagement.
Ramya Haridas, known for her grassroots activism and charismatic appeal, has been fielded by Congress to challenge the CPI(M) establishment.
Ramya’s prospects depend a great deal on correction of organisational lapses and keener assessment of ground realities. Her earlier defeat could prove a stepping stone to success this time.
If the CPI(M) fields U R Pradeep, who represented the constituency in the 14th Legislative Assembly (2011-16), the challenge he faces will be addressing the anti-incumbency wave. The state government has come under a cloud of allegations since the Lok Sabha elections.
There is speculation that the BJP could field T N Sarasu, its candidate from the Alathur Lok Sabha constituency. Any swing in BJP’s favor, however small, could fragment the anti-CPI(M) votes, making it harder for Congress to mount a serious challenge.
At the by-election in Wayanad, the Congress is brimming with optimism as Priyanka Gandhi is marking her electoral debut. Party insiders believe her entry would be a smooth continuation of Rahul Gandhi’s political success in the constituency.
The Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, which includes seven assembly segments — Kalpetta, Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery, Thiruvambady, Eranad, Nilambur, and Wandoor — has long been a stronghold of the Congress-led UDF. The majority of these assembly segments backed the Congress in recent elections, and the party hopes the by-election will reaffirm its dominance.
Wayanad has been a Congress bastion for several years, with Rahul Gandhi’s thumping victories in the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Congress leaders say just as Rahul Gandhi’s presence in Wayanad energised the UDF coalition, his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s charm and national profile could invigorate the party further. No one imagines that an election loss is possible in this constituency.
However, the CPI, which has traditionally contested against the Congress in Wayanad, will likely frame Rahul’s exit as a betrayal of trust.
And, in the case of BJP, they are expected to run a narrative around “neglected constituencies” to chip away at the Congress’ core voter base by focusing on human-wild animal conflict and lack of basic infrastructure facilities in the district.
The lead-up to November 13 promises more than just a battle for a seat.
(Edited by Rosamma Thomas)
