The loss, marked by a staggering margin of 18,840 votes, intensified internal dissent and raised serious questions about the party's strategy, candidate selection, and public outreach.
Published Nov 27, 2024 | 12:33 PM ⚊ Updated Nov 28, 2024 | 3:55 PM
BJP in Kerala is grappling with the aftermath of its significant defeat in the Palakkad assembly bypoll, which has sent shockwaves through the state leadership.
The BJP’s defeat in the Palakkad Assembly bypoll has become a blow to the saffron party’s Kerala unit leadership. The constituency was considered the party’s stronghold in the state.
The loss, marked by a staggering margin of 18,840 votes, intensified internal dissent and raised serious questions about the party’s strategy, candidate selection, and public outreach. In response to mounting criticism, BJP State President K Surendran announced a comprehensive review meeting scheduled for 7 and 8 December in Kochi, which aims to dissect the factors behind the defeat and address concerns voiced by party members.
The December review meeting is expected to address these organisational lapses and explore corrective measures ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, signalling potential changes in the party’s electoral strategy and leadership approach.
Following its rout, the selection of C Krishnakumar as the BJP’s candidate sparked widespread dissatisfaction within the party ranks. Palakkad Municipal Chairperson Prameela Sasidharan and other leaders criticised the decision, arguing it failed to resonate with ground realities.
BJP National Council Member N Sivarajan blamed Surendran and Palakkad BJP election in-charge P Raghunath for attempting to shift the blame for the defeat onto the 18 BJP councillors of the Palakkad municipality.
Additionally, Sivarajan called on Krishnakumar to disclose his assets, further intensifying the issue.
The defeat was compounded by a strong performance from UDF candidate Rahul Mamkootathil, who not only trounced Krishnakumar but also boosted the UDF’s vote share by 6.21 percentage to 44.27 percent, considering the previous election.
BJP secured only 28.63 percent of the vote share in Palakkad, marking a decline of 6.71 percentage points from the last time. This electoral setback reflects a deeper issue within the BJP. Even in Krishnakumar’s own Ayyapuram East municipal ward, his vote share fell by 4.22 percentage points, dropping to 59.5 percent.
According to the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) round-wise counting data, BJP candidate Krishnakumar maintained a lead from round one to three, which included 29 booths in Palakkad Municipality. However, from the 30th booth onward, Congress candidate Rahul Mamkootathil took the lead.
Notably, in the 30th booth itself, the BJP slipped to third place.
In the first round, the BJP secured 4,127 votes, while the Congress started with 3,070 votes. By the third round, the BJP’s tally stood at 11,111 votes, narrowly trailing Congress, which had reached 12,287 votes.
For the first time, the Congress established a significant lead in Palakkad Municipality. From the fourth round onward, Congress consistently held a comfortable position, especially in its strongholds.
In contrast to the 2021 Assembly elections, where the BJP maintained its lead until the seventh round, this election showed a notable shift.
Traditional BJP-supporting areas like Kalpathi, Murukani, and Parakkunnam, which had stood firmly with the party in previous elections, exhibited a change in voting patterns this time.
The BJP has maintained control of the Palakkad municipality for the past two elections, highlighting its strong influence in the urban area. However, tensions have surfaced within the party, as BJP councillors in the municipality have publicly criticised the party leadership.
This follows allegations from the Surendran faction, which attributed the BJP’s recent defeat in Palakkad to a lack of cooperation from 18 councillors.
The Palakkad Municipality consists of 52 wards, with the BJP holding 28 councillor seats. These areas are predominantly inhabited by communities such as Brahmins, Nairs, Pillais, and Chettiyars, traditionally considered the BJP’s core vote bank.
Rahul Mamkootathil delivered an unexpected twist not only by eliminating the BJP’s lead but also by surpassing the saffron party with an additional 4,590 votes in the municipality. The candidate boosted the vote share in the town to 41.11 percent, marking a four-percentage-point increase.
Meanwhile, the BJP’s vote share saw a sharp decline, dropping from 44.16 percent to 35.17 percent, from the last election. This shift effectively sealed the BJP’s defeat, as its influence is limited outside the municipality, where the UDF holds significant sway in the grama panchayats.
Subhash Kalpathy, the BJP ward councillor from Thonipalayam Municipality, in a conversation with South First, discussed the BJP’s recent vote loss in Palakkad Municipality.
He referred to the area as the BJP’s “Gujarat in Kerala” due to the strong presence of the RSS in the region.
Subhash explained that while the BJP saw a decrease of 2,000 votes in the recent by-elections compared to the previous Parliament elections, 1,500 of those votes went to NOTA.
However, he pointed out that the BJP lost 7,000 votes in Palakkad Municipality compared to the 2021 Assembly elections, largely due to the influence of “Metroman” E Sreedharan, whose global image helped him secure votes across various segments.
He emphasised that it was unfair to compare the by-elections with previous ones and expressed confidence that the BJP would win all 52 seats in the upcoming local body elections in December 2025.
The BJP faced another major setback in the recent by-election, particularly in the rural areas of the constituency, which includes Pirayiri, Mathur, and Kannadi Grama panchayats. These regions are predominantly dominated by communities such as Moothan, Ezhava, Thattan, Moosari, and minorities, including Muslims and Christians.
As part of its strategy to gain the support of the Christian community, BJP candidate Krishnakumar made a visit to Munambam, where a Waqf land dispute is ongoing, despite his busy election schedule.
His visit was just a day after Bishop Raphael Thattil of the Syro-Malabar Catholic Church urged his followers to consider voting for a third alternative, widely interpreted as an indirect endorsement of the BJP.
However, Palakkad Diocese Bishop Fr Peter Kochupurackal had previously clarified that the church would support candidates who take a positive stance on the Munambam issue.
In Pirayiri panchayat, where the BJP had not given much of its efforts citing the area as Muslim-dominant, the UDF saw a significant rise in support. The UDF’s vote share surged by 19 percent from the last election, reaching 68 percent, while the BJP’s share dropped by 4 percent, settling at 20.48 percent.
In Kannadi grama panchayat, the UDF experienced a modest gain, increasing its vote share by 2 percentage points to 37 percent. On the other hand, the BJP witnessed a sharper decline, with its vote share falling by 6.52 percentage points to 21.24 percent.
Meanwhile, in Mathur grama panchayat, the Congress managed a slight improvement, pushing its vote share up to 38.52 percent, while the BJP’s vote share decreased by 5 percentage points, reaching 18.23 percent.
Apart from this, Krishnakumar and his wife, Palakkad Municipal Councillor Minimol VS, visited the Moothan Service Society at Muthonthara, an RSS stronghold. Their goal was to mend ties with the 50,000-strong community that was angered over Minimol replacing Priya Ajayan as its chairperson.
However, the RSS blocked their plan by appointing Pramila Sasidharan instead. This incident left the community, a key RSS support base, dissatisfied. Krishnakumar aimed to win back their support to strengthen the BJP’s strategy of consolidating Hindu votes and challenging the Congress in the constituency.
Kerala’s senior psephologist G Gopakumar told South First that the BJP’s efforts in the recent by-election were largely ineffective. “The BJP failed to secure even 10,000 Christian votes in Palakkad. They attempted to use the Waqf issue to influence voters, but it had little impact in the rural areas of the district.”
“Additionally, there is growing criticism and infighting within the municipality. While I don’t believe the RSS voted against the BJP, they refrained from voting, as seen in the overall decline in voter turnout,” he said.
“The byelection saw a turnout of 70.51 percent, down from 75.44 percent in 2021. The RSS has a strong base in Kerala, but due to internal conflicts within the BJP, they have not been able to effectively leverage it,” Gopakumar remarked.
Gopakumar believes the BJP has a strong chance of comeback in Palakkad in the upcoming assembly elections. He pointed out that though the party consistently secured the second position in places like Kasaragod and Manjeshwaram, Palakkad presents a unique political landscape where the BJP can potentially make significant strides.
According to Gopakumar, this could lead to a triangular contest in the region.
He said one of the key reasons behind the BJP’s struggles in previous elections was the lack of unity within the party’s leadership.
“While figures like E Sreedharan and Suresh Gopi garnered support due to their personal appeal and charisma, leaders such as Sobha Surendran have the potential to increase the BJP’s vote share, no matter where they contest,” he said.
“Unlike other parties, the BJP tends to categorise constituencies into A-class, B-class, and so on based on factors such as past performance, winning probability, and demographic considerations. Palakkad remains on the BJP’s A-class list, indicating that a comeback is still within the realm of possibility,” he added.
(Edited by Muhammed Fazil)
