All eyes are on Karnataka as the state votes in Assembly elections on 10 May. The South First-Peoples Pulse pre-poll survey carried out between 25 March and 10 April predicts a hung House in Karnataka, but gives the Congress an edge.
The opinion poll for Karnataka election predicts 98 seats for Congress, within a range of 95 to 105 seats. The incumbent BJP is projected to win 92 seats, within a range of 90 to 100 seats. The JD(S) is projected to win 27 seats, within a range of 25 to 30 seats.
South First-Peoples Pulse pre-poll projections show that a change of government is on the anvil in Karnataka, but none of the three major parties are likely to cross the halfway mark of 113 in the 224-strong Assembly.
South First January Poll: Congress to emerge single-largest party in Karnataka
Homemakers pick Congress, businessmen BJP
The South First-Peoples Pulse opinion poll looked at demographics and voting patterns across the state.
The survey shows that Congress is a hit among daily wage labourers, homemakers, and farmers, while the BJP is preferred by businessmen, salaried persons with private jobs, and students.
As many as 46 percent of the respondents who work as daily wage labourers picked the Congress as their preferred party while 32 percent chose the BJP. Only 15 percent daily wage labourers picked JD(S), and seven percent preferred “others”.
About 44 percent of unemployed youth picked the Congress as their preferred party, while only 28 percent from this group chose the BJP. Some 20 percent of unemployed persons picked JD(S) as their preferred party, and eight percent said “others”.
Among homemakers, 43 percent picked the Congress as their preferred party while 31 percent picked the BJP. About 17 percent of homemakers chose the JD(S) while nine percent chose “others”.
Congress’ poll promise of Gruha Lakshmi, which guarantees a universal basic income to homemakers, and Yuva Nidhi for unemployed youngsters may have had an impact on these two groups.
Among respondents who are farmers and work in the agriculture sector, 42 percent chose the Congress as their preferred party; 35 percent chose the BJP, while 23 percent chose the JD(S).
Around 40 percent of respondents with a government jobs picked the Congress as their preferred party, while 37 percent picked the BJP. The JD(S) was picked by 16 percent, and seven percent picked “others”.
The BJP is a favourite among businesspersons, with 43 percent from the group showing a preference for the saffron party. Only 36 percent in this group chose the Congress, while 11 percent picked the JD(S), and 10 percent chose “others”.
Among students, 42 percent of the respondents in the South First-Peoples Pulse pre-poll survey for Karnataka picked the BJP as their preferred party, with 40 percent preferring the Congress, 12 percent picking the JD(S), and six percent opting for “others”.
Among the salaried class with private jobs, 40 percent picked the BJP as their preferred party, while 37 percent picked the Congress. Just 14 percent of the respondents from this group picked the JD(S), and 19 percent chose “others”.
South First January Poll: Corruption is the top issue for voters in Karnataka
BJP, Congress neck-and-neck among young voters
The South First-Peoples pulse pre-poll survey for Karnataka shows that young voters — under the age of 25 years — are almost equally divided in their preference between the BJP and the Congress.
This is contradictory to the notion that young voters overwhelmingly prefer the BJP.
While 42 percent of the respondents under the age of 25 picked the BJP as their preferred party, 41 percent chose the Congress. Just 15 percent in the group picked the JD(S) and two percent chose “others”.
Respondents in the age group between 26 and 35 years were tied with 38 percent each for the BJP and the Congress as preferred party. Just 14 percent in the group picked the JD(S) while 10 percent said “others”.
Among respondents in the age group of 36 to 45 years, 40 percent chose the Congress while 35 percent picked the BJP; 17 percent in this group picked the JD(S) and eight percent chose “others”.
40 percent respondents in the age group of 46 to 55 years, too, picked the Congress as their preferred party; 36 percent in this group picked the BJP, 16 percent chose the JD(S), and eight percent said “others”.
Among respondents above the age of 56, the Congress remained the favourite, with 46 percent choosing the grand old party, while only 29 percent picked the BJP, 18 percent batted for JD(S), and seven percent said “others”.
BJP popular among graduates, Congress among non-literate
The South First-Peoples Pulse Karnataka opinion poll shows that a majority — 55 percent — of non-literate respondents picked the Congress as their preferred party, compared to 27 percent in this group who chose the BJP. The JD(S) was picked by 16 percent while two percent chose “others”.
The BJP, however, remained popular among graduates, with 43 percent of respondents from this group picking the saffron party as their preference. Among those with a post-graduate degrees and above, 38 percent picked the BJP, while 34 percent picked the Congress, and 15 percent chose the JD(S).
Congress remains the preferred pick for voters from rural constituencies, with 42 percent of the respondents choosing the grand old party. Some 30 percent of rural respondents picked the BJP and 20 percent chose the JD(S).
Among urban dwellers, 42 percent chose the BJP and 40 percent chose the Congress, while 12 percent picked the JD(S).
Both women and men in Karnataka, the South First-Peoples Pulse opinion poll shows, prefer the Congress over the BJP, with 42 percent of the male respondents and 40 percent female respondents picking the Congress as their preferred party.
South First January Poll: AHINDA consolidation gives Congress the edge
Karnataka opinion poll methodology
The pre-poll survey was commissioned by South First and was conducted from 25 March to 10 April by the Peoples Pulse Research organisation.
The pre-poll survey report was compiled by R Dileep Reddy, director, Peoples Pulse Research organisation.
The South First pre-poll survey was conducted in 56 Assembly segments selected on the basis of Probability Proportional Methodology (PPS).
Five polling stations were selected from each Assembly segment, making up 280 polling stations.
In each polling station, 20 samples were collected.
A total of 5,600 samples were chosen such that they reflected the situation on the ground in terms of caste, religion and age.
Gender was given equal representation. The sample profile included 51 percent male and 49 percent female respondents.
The sample profile included 40 percent urban dwellers, 60 percent rural dwellers. The profile included 12 percent Muslims, 16 percent Scheduled Castes (SCs) and eight percent Scheduled Tribes (STs).
The South First pre-poll survey factors in a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
