South First Karnataka Exit Poll: Congress could cross halfway mark

Exit poll for Karnataka Assembly election 2023 carried out by Peoples Pulse for South First predicts Congress edge.

BySouth First Desk

Published May 10, 2023 | 7:17 PM Updated May 10, 2023 | 7:44 PM

Karnataka elections exit poll

Polling for the Karnataka Assembly elections 2023 concluded on Wednesday. At 5 pm, the state had recorded a 65.69 percent turnout. South First-Peoples Pulse carried out an Exit Poll for Karnataka assembly elections that has predicted a clear edge for the Congress.

The South First Karnataka Exit Poll carried out by Peoples Pulse on polling day predicts that Congress may breach the halfway mark.

South First Karnataka final pre-poll survey: Possible majority for Congress

Karnataka Assembly election South First Exit PollThe Exit Poll shows that Congress could get 42 percent of the vote share, with projected seats of 107 to 119. The Congress’ vote share is projected to increase by 4 percent compared to its 2018 figure.

Karnataka has 224 seats and any party has to get at least 113 seats to claim a simple majority in the state.

The South First Exit Poll carried out on polling day shows that incumbent BJP could win in a range of 78 to 90 seats with a projected vote share of 36 percent. The poll shows that while the BJP may not lose much vote share, it is set to lose several seats.

The third major party in Karnataka — the JD(S) — is predicted to win in a range of 23 to 29 seats in the elections. The regional party is projected to get 16 percent vote share.

South First Karnataka pre-poll survey: Parties express confidence of majority

Karnataka Assembly election South First Exit PollThe Exit Poll also predicts that smaller parties and independents could win one to three seats in Karnataka, with a combined vote share of 6 percent.

The Karnataka election Exit Poll also show that the Congress party’s Siddaramaiah remains top choice for chief minister, with 42 percent of the respondents choosing him for the top post.

Incumbent Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai came second with 24 percent respondents picking him for the top post, while the JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy stood third with 17 percent of the respondents choosing him.

KPCC President DK Shivakumar was picked as chief minister choice only by 3 percent of the respondents.

South First pre-poll survey: Who is voting for which party and why

Methodology and margin of error

The margin of error for South First-Peoples Pulse Exit Poll is plus or minus 2 percent. The Exit Poll survey was conducted on polling day, Wednesday, 10 May, by Peoples Pulse Research Organization for South First.

Karnataka election exit poll

The survey was carried out in 56 Assembly segments selected on the basis of the Probability Proportional Methodology (PPS). Samples were collected from 168 polling stations in 56 assembly segments. In each polling station, 15-20 samples were collected.

A total of 3,024 samples were collected such that the sample reflects the situation on the ground in terms of caste, religion and age. Gender was given equal representation.

It is pertinent to mention that Peoples Pulse conducted the first pre-poll survey in Karnataka from 22 to 31 December, 2022. The second pre-poll survey was conducted from 25 March to 10 April, 2023.

The Third and final pre-poll survey was conducted after withdrawl of nomination from 1 May to 5 May, 2023.

The final pre-poll survey carried out by Peoples Pulse for South First in Karnataka projected that the Congress could win 105 to 117 seats out of the total 224 seats in Karnataka.