Anti-incumbency at the constituency level against BJP MLAs has emerged as one of the primary challenges for the party.
Leaders of Karnataka BJP during a State executive meeting. File Photo. (Supplied)
The BJP it seems is not too disappointed with its most recent survey reports. The saffron party’s latest assessment of its electoral chances in Karnataka, party insiders said, has it winning 96 to 102 seats.
Karnataka has 224 assembly constituencies and a simple majority for any party to stake claim to form the government stands at 113.
Sources in the BJP told South First that the latest ground assessment reports “aren’t too shabby”, but the central leadership of the party is not happy with just 96 to 102 seats.
Following BJP National President Jagat Prakash Nadda’s visit to Karnataka on Thursday, 15 December, state unit leaders have been asked to pull up their socks and double down at the grassroots level with door-to-door campaigning.
“The party has pretty much switched to poll mode. The latest survey results put our chances at between 96 and 102 seats despite the anti-incumbency and Opposition parties’ campaigns. In the next four months, we will be able to improve our chances further,” a minister in the Basavaraj Bommai Cabinet told South First.
Ahead of deciding on ticket distribution, BJP is now carrying out a three-tiered survey across the state to assess winnability factors.
“One survey will collect data on how favorable voters are towards the party in which constituencies and in what percent. A second survey will study the mood of voters towards individual MLAs and alternate candidates in each seat. The third survey is to assess how voters rate the state government’s performance,” a senior leader of the Karnataka BJP told South First.
The state leadership — which is touring the state with its Jana Sankalpa Yatra — is now preparing to host BJP National General Secretary (Organisation) BL Santhosh who will be in Karnataka on a three-day tour.
“BL Santhosh will hold meetings from December 17 to 19 and review the data collected so far,” the BJP minister said. The results of the three-level survey, party leaders said, will help the central leadership guide ticket distribution.
The repeated surveys carried out by multiple firms using various yardsticks over the last few months have pointed to problem areas for the BJP. While, geographically, the old Mysuru region continues to remain a huge challenge for the saffron party, issues-wise, two big challenges have been identified.
“Local level anti-incumbency against our MLAs, especially in rural areas, and the demand for reservation from the Panchamasali Lingayat sect are our biggest challenges,” the senior Karnataka BJP leader said.
The party, which reaped great dividend in the 2018 Assembly elections by attacking then chief minister Siddaramaiah over his recommendation to the Union government to accord a separate religion tag to Lingayats, now faces a similar dilemma with a subsect in the community demanding increased reservation.
The Panchamasali Lingayat demand has put the BJP in Karnataka in a catch-22 situation. The government’s decision to give in-principle nod to increasing reservation for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) has only hardened the Panchamasali Lingayat resolve to have their reservation quota category changed to 2A.
If the BJP government concedes the demand of only Panchamasali Lingayats, even if only in-principle, it runs the risk of leaving other sub-sects miffed and upsetting a dependable vote bank.
The other challenge for the saffron party is anti-incumbency at the local level. “We have time to work on that and improve our prospects,” a BJP minister said.
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