According to a Lancet study, India's TFR (Total Fertility Ratio) has decreased significantly from 6.18 children per woman in 1950 to 1.91 in 2021
Published Oct 21, 2024 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated Oct 21, 2024 | 8:31 AM
Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu
With the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) indicating that India’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.91 in 2021—below the replacement level of 2.1—Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has stressed the need for families in southern states to have more children.
His remarks come as part of a broader effort to address concerns about an ageing population and declining fertility rates in the region.
During a recent address, Chief Minister Naidu highlighted the demographic risks posed by a shrinking youth population, stating that the state government is considering new legislation to encourage larger families.
“The state government is thinking of bringing a law that would make only those with more than two children eligible to contest local body elections,” Naidu said. This initiative is part of the state’s “population management” strategy aimed at reversing declining birth rates.
The replacement level of fertility refers to the average number of children that a woman must have over her lifetime to ensure that a population maintains its current size, without increasing or decreasing.
For most populations, this level is estimated to be 2.1 children per woman. This figure accounts for the fact that not all children born will survive to adulthood, and also that some women may not have children of their own.
A fertility rate of 2.1 is considered the threshold at which a population can replace itself from one generation to the next. This slight margin above 2.0 compensates for infant and child mortality rates and the small percentage of women who do not survive or remain childless.
If a country’s total fertility rate (TFR) falls below 2.1 over an extended period, it generally leads to a decline in the population size unless offset by immigration or other demographic factors.
The replacement level of fertility is crucial in maintaining a balanced demographic structure, where the number of births roughly equals the number of deaths. This balance ensures a stable workforce to support an aging population and prevents the economic and social challenges that arise from a shrinking population base.
In a significant policy shift, the Andhra Pradesh government passed a bill in August, abolishing the previous two-child policy that disqualified individuals with more than two children from contesting local body elections. This policy change aims to incentivise larger families and address the demographic challenges posed by the state’s low fertility rate.
Naidu further mentioned that the state is exploring additional legislative measures to promote larger families, potentially offering incentives to families with more than two children. He emphasised that such measures are crucial for balancing the state’s demographic structure and ensuring a sustainable working-age population.
Drawing comparisons with countries like Japan and China, which are grappling with the effects of ageing populations and declining birth rates, Naidu warned that India could face similar challenges if current trends persist.
He cautioned that a continued decline in the fertility rate could lead to a shortage of working-age individuals, straining social services and healthcare systems as the population ages.
The fertility rate in southern states, including Andhra Pradesh, has now dropped to approximately 1.7, which is significantly below the national average of 2.1. This decline raises concerns about potential demographic imbalances as the population continues to age.
According to data from the NFHS-5, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in southern Indian states is as follows:
– Andhra Pradesh: 1.70
– Karnataka: 1.70
– Kerala: 1.80
– Tamil Nadu: 1.80
– Telangana: 1.82
According to a Lancet study India’s TFR has decreased significantly from 6.18 children per woman in 1950 to 1.91 in 2021. Projections indicate that this trend will continue, with the fertility rate expected to drop to 1.29 by 2050 and further to 1.04 by 2100. This sustained decline could lead to a shrinking population and increased challenges in supporting the elderly.
The decline in India’s fertility rate aligns with global trends and can be attributed to several key factors:
– Increased education and workforce participation among women
– Delays in marriage and childbearing
– Greater access to modern contraceptives
The push for larger families marks a departure from earlier policies focused on population control, reflecting evolving socio-economic needs and the state’s aim to maintain a balanced demographic structure. Experts warn that a declining fertility rate could result in labour shortages and significant social imbalances, including a greater proportion of the population being over the age of 60 by 2050.
According to a Lancet study, in India, several states continue to exhibit high Total Fertility Rates (TFR), which remain above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Bihar leads with a TFR of 2.98, reflecting persistent socio-economic factors that contribute to larger family sizes. Following closely is Meghalaya at 2.91, where cultural norms and limited access to family planning resources play significant roles.
Uttar Pradesh has a TFR of 2.35, making it one of the most populous states in the country, while Jharkhand and Manipur have TFRs of 2.26 and 2.17, respectively.
These states face unique challenges, including lower levels of female education and higher rates of poverty, which often correlate with higher fertility rates.
Sikkim has the lowest TFR at 1.05 children per woman, indicating a strong trend towards smaller family sizes, often attributed to high levels of education and urbanisation.
Other states with low fertility rates include Kerala at 1.80, where extensive healthcare access and women’s empowerment contribute to family planning decisions, and Tamil Nadu also at 1.80, showcasing similar trends of education and economic development. Himachal Pradesh follows closely with a TFR of 1.70, benefiting from improved health services and educational attainment among women. Additionally, Punjab has a TFR of 1.63, reflecting changing cultural norms regarding family size.
Andhra Pradesh is notably low, currently estimated at 1.70 children per woman. Higher educational attainment among women is a significant factor influencing fertility rates. Women with more education tend to have fewer children, as they prioritise careers and family planning. For instance, the TFR for women with no formal education is about 2.3, while it drops to 1.2 for those with intermediate qualifications or higher.
There is a growing awareness of family planning methods, leading many couples to opt for smaller families or to delay childbirth. This trend is particularly pronounced in urban areas, where the TFR averages around 1.4.
(Edited by Ananya Rao)
