Projections in the Telangana State Statistical Abstract 2024 estimate a 33 percent decline in the 5–9 age group, alongside a staggering 302 percent increase in the population over 80.
Published Feb 24, 2025 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated Feb 24, 2025 | 7:00 AM
Synopsis: Telangana is undergoing a significant demographic shift, with a projected 25 percent decline in newborns and an 82 percent increase in the 80+ population by 2036, signalling an ageing society with potential labour shortages. The shrinking youth population will affect education, workforce availability, and economic growth, while the rising elderly population will increase demand for healthcare, social security, and geriatric care.
Telangana’s demographic structure is set to change significantly in the coming decade, with a declining birth rate and a rapidly growing elderly population, according to the Telangana State Statistical Abstract 2024.
While the total population is expected to grow, its distribution across age groups will shift, with major social and economic implications. The state’s workforce is also projected to age considerably.
The report, released by Deputy Chief Minister Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka on 17 February, states that between 2021 and 2036, the newborn population in the state is projected to decline by 25 percent, while the number of people aged 80 and above is expected to rise by over 80 percent.
Projections from 2011 to 2036 estimate a 33 percent decline in the 5–9 age group, alongside a staggering 302 percent increase in the population over 80.
These projections are based on data from the National Commission on Population, Union Ministry of Health & Family Welfare. However, the Union Government has not conducted a full census since 2011.
The child population, particularly those aged 0–14 years, is projected to decline steadily.
The 0–1 age group is expected to shrink by 25.2 percent between 2021 and 2036, marking a total projected decline of 32 percent since 2011. Similarly, the 0–4 age group is projected to decline by 25.3 percent from 2021 to 2036 and by 31.9 percent over the entire 25-year period.
The 5–9 age group is also set to decline significantly, with a 20.7 percent reduction between 2021 and 2036, while the 10–14 age group is estimated to shrink by 17.3 percent in the same period. These figures clearly indicate a declining birth rate, leading to fewer young children in the coming years.
This trend could have long-term consequences for the education sector, paediatric healthcare services, and the future availability of a young workforce.
India is experiencing a shift towards negative population growth, first evident in declining newborn numbers. Birth rates are the sole driver of population growth, and a comparative analysis from 2011 to 2025, with projections for 2026, reveals a steady decline.
“From 2011 to 2021, the newborn population fell by 18 percent, and by 2031, we expect a further drop. Taking 2021 as a reference, the decline is around 9 percent. By 2025, the midpoint between 2021 and 2031, the estimated decline stands at 14 percent, and compared to 2011, the negative growth rate is 13 percent,” said Dr Kiran Madhala, Convener, Regional Centre for Medical Education, NMC, Telangana State told South First.
He attributed the declining birth rate to lifestyle changes, delayed marriages, pollution, and dietary habits. Infertility is rising, with one in seven couples affected. WHO estimates India’s infertility rate at 12 percent, with childbearing capacity dropping 80 percent over two generations. “Recognising this, Telangana’s government is expanding infertility treatment in public hospitals, such as Gandhi Hospital, demonstrating the government’s commitment to addressing the declining population,” said Dr Madhala.
However, he noted that India already has adequate paediatric hospitals, and the focus should now shift to paediatric subspecialties rather than general expansion. With fewer births, improving healthcare outcomes becomes critical. “In the past, high child mortality was linked to a lack of subspecialised care, especially in the government sector. Even private hospitals lack adequate paediatric pulmonology, neonatology, and gastroenterology services. Strengthening these fields will enhance survival and health outcomes,” Dr Madhala emphasised.
The teenage and young adult population is also projected to shrink. The 15–19 age group is expected to decline by 17.9 percent between 2021 and 2036, while the 20–24 age group is projected to see a sharper drop of 22.6 percent. Over the 25-year period, these declines are estimated to be even steeper at 26.4 percent and 23.3 percent, respectively.
Fewer young people entering higher education and the workforce could lead to labour shortages, potentially affecting economic growth and productivity.
The decline is projected to be slightly steeper for males (-26.4 percent) compared to females (-23.9 percent), but both sexes are expected to experience lower birth rates. While the overall number of children is projected to decrease, the existing gender ratio at birth – historically favouring boys – may persist. A declining number of girls in early childhood could have long-term consequences for gender representation in education and employment.
The 15–24 age group, crucial for education and early career employment, is expected to see a significant drop, with a sharper decline for women than men. The female population aged 15–19 is projected to decline by 19.4 percent (compared to 16.4 percent for men), while the female population aged 20–24 is estimated to fall by 24.8 percent (compared to 20.5 percent for men).
This sharper decline in young women could affect higher education enrolment rates and female participation in the labour market, potentially worsening the existing gender gap in employment.
One of the most striking projections is the significant growth in Telangana’s aging population.
Projections for the working-age population (25–49 years) show varied trends across age groups. The 25–29 age group, after a slight increase of 5.8 percent between 2011 and 2021, is projected to decline by 19.3 percent between 2021 and 2036. The 30–34 age group is expected to grow by 4.8 percent over the entire 25-year period but is still projected to decline by 9.5 percent between 2021 and 2036.
In contrast, older working-age groups are projected to grow. The 35–39 age group is estimated to expand by 27.9 percent from 2011 to 2036. The 40–44 age group is expected to increase by 49.6 percent over the same period, including a projected rise of 17.6 percent between 2021 and 2036. The 45–49 age group is forecast to experience the highest growth within the workforce, rising by 77.4 percent over 25 years.
The number of men in the 25–29 age group is projected to fall by 18.5 percent, while for women, the decline is estimated to be 20.1 percent. The 40–44 and 45–49 age groups are expected to grow for both genders, though projections indicate that men will see a higher increase than women.
The 50–54 age group is projected to grow by 104 percent between 2011 and 2036, while the 55–59 age group is expected to increase by 107.1 percent over the same period.
The elderly population (60+ years) is projected to grow rapidly across all segments. The 60–64 age group is expected to increase by 54.8 percent between 2021 and 2036 (92.9 percent over the full 25-year period), while the 65–69 age group is projected to rise by 69.5 percent (93 percent total from 2011 to 2036).
The 70–74 age group is expected to grow by 67 percent between 2021 and 2036 (85.2 percent total), while the 75–79 age group is projected to rise by 46.9 percent in the same period (128 percent over the full 25 years). The 80+ age group is expected to see the highest increase, with an estimated rise of 82.1 percent from 2021 to 2036 and a potential surge of 301.9 percent over the entire 25-year period.
Gender differences are notable among the oldest populations. The 80+ female population is projected to grow by 95.8 percent, compared to 64.3 percent for men. Women are also expected to experience a higher rise in the 70–74 age group (+71.5 percent vs. +67.6 percent for men).
Although Telangana’s total population is projected to grow, the pace of growth is expected to slow. Over the 25-year period, the total population is estimated to increase by 12.7 percent, but the growth rate is expected to decelerate. Between 2011 and 2021, the population is estimated to have grown by 7.8 percent, but from 2021 to 2036, the growth rate is projected to slow to just 4.6 percent. By 2036, Telangana’s population is expected to be nearing stagnation, indicating a shift toward a low-growth, aging society.
Dr Madhala stated that the rise in the elderly population is largely due to advancements in healthcare, diagnostics, and medical technology – mirroring global trends of increased life expectancy. While paediatric care remains essential, the demand for geriatric care is expected to surge over the next 10–20 years.
The rapidly aging population will bring a major demographic shift, significantly impacting healthcare, social security, and economic policies.
“The government must effectively prepare for the challenges that come with an aging population in these states. There are many ways to do so, and it is imperative to start now. Kerala has already begun this process, though there is still much more to be done. We can learn not only from Kerala but also from Japan and other countries that have addressed similar challenges,” Population Foundation of India Executive Director Poonam Muttreja told South First.
She added that while concerns exist about a declining working-age population, India still has enough young people to benefit from the demographic dividend. However, as the population ages, it is crucial to ensure meaningful employment opportunities for older adults.
According to Dr Kiran Madhala, the real healthcare challenge today is not paediatric care but the growing elderly population. Geriatric care must be prioritised, and recognising this, the National Medical Commission (NMC) has introduced MD in Geriatric Medicine as a postgraduate course. Institutions like Gandhi Medical College now offer dedicated MD seats for geriatrics, reflecting the urgency of the issue.
“If the NMC is introducing such programmes, it signals that aging is a major challenge for future generations. India’s 70+ population is now a key factor in national planning. Currently, there are 2.7 crore (27 million) elderly individuals, and this number is rising,” he said.
This unprecedented rise in the elderly population will create an increased demand for healthcare services, elderly care facilities, and pension schemes, requiring government intervention in long-term care policies and financial support systems. Since women generally live longer than men, this trend highlights a growing need for policies addressing elderly female healthcare, pension security, and social support systems. Many older women may be widowed, financially dependent, or without sufficient support, further increasing the demand for elderly care services.
India urgently needs structured elderly care services, including social security schemes, pensions, and specialised nutrition programmes. However, a critical gap remains – the country lacks a proper nursing care system for the elderly, unlike developed nations. Instead, small, unregulated old-age homes are emerging, but these are insufficient.
“Another growing concern is that many children are moving abroad, leaving their elderly parents behind, often without proper support. This increases cases of elder neglect and financial fraud. Many elderly individuals, due to age-related issues, become vulnerable to exploitation – whether by domestic helpers, fraudsters, or criminals,” Dr Madhala warned.
Muttreja emphasised that while 60 is the current retirement age, it is essential to create opportunities for an aging workforce. Additionally, there is a lack of adequate caregiving for the elderly. Investment in elder care infrastructure, social security for older people, and healthcare is critical.
“Most medical expenses occur in old age, so building strong healthcare systems now will reduce the burden later. If we have been successful in family planning, we can also implement good governance and health policies to address non-communicable diseases (NCDs), ensuring that people age without suffering from multiple illnesses that require costly treatments,” said Muttreja.
Financial fraud is a significant issue among the elderly. Many depend on their retirement savings, yet age-related impairments make financial management difficult. Some trust the wrong people, leading to exploitation and scams. Stronger policies are needed to protect elderly individuals from financial abuse.
To improve financial inclusivity, several states are raising the retirement age. Telangana increased it from 58 to 61, while in the central government, the retirement age for medical colleges and universities is 65.
“While the central government has introduced the Unified Pension Scheme under the NPS, many states have yet to implement similar measures. Financial security at retirement is critical – without it, elderly individuals struggle to afford healthcare, accommodation, and a decent quality of life. These issues highlight the urgent need for strong elderly care policies, a well-structured nursing care system, and robust financial protections for senior citizens,” said Dr Madhala.
The declining youth population could lead to fewer students, potential school closures, and long-term labour shortages.
The Ministry of Education’s Unified District Information System for Education Plus (U-DISE+) data for the 2022–23 and 2023–24 school years raised concerns. It indicates a decline of 15.5 million in school enrolment since the 2018–19 academic year, reflecting a 6 percent drop. This decline is attributed to a systematic demographic shift, with the school-going population aged 6–17 years decreasing by 17.3 million (5.78 percent) over the past decade.
Countries like Japan and Germany have already experienced significant declines in their youth populations, leading to labour shortages and increased pressure on social security systems. Research suggests that these demographic shifts require urgent policy responses to ensure sustainable economic growth and social stability.
(Edited by Dese Gowda)
