Among larger states, the South India's dominance is evident, with Tamil Nadu and Kerala leading, followed by Punjab, Maharashtra, and Bengal.
Published Sep 07, 2025 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated Sep 07, 2025 | 7:00 AM
Newborn baby. Representational Image. (iStock)
Synopsis: Lower birth rates translate to reduced dependency ratios, potentially freeing up resources for economic development and improving per capita indicators. However, it brings another deepening reality, schools across southern states will be reporting falling enrollments. These states may soon face labour shortages, forcing them to import migrants from regions with different languages, cultures, and skill sets.
India’s southern states are spearheading an unprecedented demographic transformation, with Tamil Nadu and Kerala recording the country’s lowest crude birth rates (CBR) even as the nation witnesses its most crucial fertility decline in recent history, according to the Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2023 released on Wednesday.
Tamil Nadu has emerged as the frontrunner in India’s fertility transition with a CBR of just 12.0 births per 1,000 population in 2023, closely followed by Kerala at 12.3.
These southern powerhouses, along with Karnataka (15.2), Telangana (15.8), and Andhra Pradesh (15.0), collectively demonstrate how economic development and social progress translate into lower birth rates, setting a template for the rest of the country.
The data reveals a stark contrast between India’s developed south and the demographically young northern and central states. While southern states have achieved near-replacement level fertility, states like Bihar (25.8), Uttar Pradesh (23.6), and Rajasthan (22.9) continue to record birth rates more than double those of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
India’s overall CBR dropped to 18.4 births per 1,000 population in 2023, down from 19.1 in 2022 – marking a significant 3.7 percent year-on-year decline. This downward trajectory represents the continuation of a broader demographic shift that has seen the country’s birth rate fall by 12.5 percent over the past decade, from 21.6 during 2011-13 to 18.9 during 2021-23.
The rural-urban divide remains pronounced but is narrowing gradually. Rural areas recorded a CBR of 20.3 in 2023, compared to 14.9 in urban areas. However, both segments witnessed declines from the previous year, with rural areas dropping from 20.8 and urban areas from 15.5 in 2022.
Southern states, with their higher literacy rates, better healthcare systems, and greater women’s workforce participation, are leading this demographic dividend.
The performance of southern states is particularly noteworthy when examined through both recent trends and long-term patterns. Tamil Nadu’s CBR decline of 20.4 percent between 2011-13 and 2021-23 represents one of the steepest drops in the country, while Kerala’s 16.1 percent decline during the same period demonstrates sustained progress in fertility reduction.
Karnataka, despite having a slightly higher CBR at 15.2, has shown consistent improvement with a 15.1 percent decline over the decade. The state’s urban areas recorded a particularly low CBR of 13.9, indicating successful family planning initiatives in metropolitan centers like Bangalore and Mysore.
Telangana, formed in 2014, has maintained its trajectory toward lower fertility rates with a current CBR of 15.8, while Andhra Pradesh has achieved a CBR of 15.0, representing a notable 10.9 percent decline over the past decade.
The rural-urban differential in these southern states also tells an interesting story. Unlike the national pattern, Kerala shows minimal difference between rural (12.2) and urban (12.4) birth rates, suggesting that family planning awareness and healthcare access have penetrated effectively across geographic boundaries.
At the national level, the demographic picture presents a tale of two Indias. Union territories and smaller states dominate the lowest CBR rankings, with Andaman & Nicobar Islands recording the country’s lowest rate at 10.1, followed by Goa (10.8) and Chandigarh (11.1).
Among larger states, the southern cluster’s dominance is evident, with Tamil Nadu (12.0) and Kerala (12.3) leading, followed by Punjab (13.8), Maharashtra (14.0), and West Bengal (14.0).
Conversely, the demographic burden continues to weigh heavily on northern and central states. Bihar remains the outlier with the highest CBR at 25.8, though this represents a decline from 26.9 in 2022. Uttar Pradesh follows at 23.6, Rajasthan at 22.9, and Madhya Pradesh at 22.5.
The year-on-year changes reveal that even high-fertility states are experiencing declining birth rates. Bihar saw the largest absolute decline of 1.1 points, while Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh each dropped by 0.8-0.9 points.
India’s urbanisation is playing a crucial role in fertility decline. Urban areas across the country consistently record lower CBRs than their rural counterparts, with the gap most pronounced in states like Meghalaya (24.8 rural vs 13.2 urban) and Assam (21.0 rural vs 13.4 urban).
However, some states show minimal rural-urban differences, indicating comprehensive demographic transition. Kerala (12.2 rural vs 12.4 urban) and Tamil Nadu (12.5 rural vs 11.5 urban) demonstrate how development can permeate beyond urban centers.
Delhi presents an interesting case study, with an overall CBR of 12.9 despite having distinct rural pockets. The capital’s urban CBR of 12.8 reflects its status as a developed metropolitan region, while rural areas record 14.4.
The decade-long analysis reveals the depth of India’s demographic transformation. States that have achieved the steepest declines – Delhi (-22.5 percent), Tamil Nadu (-20.4 percent), and Gujarat (-17.6 percent) – represent diverse development models yet converge on similar fertility outcomes.
This demographic transition carries significant implications for India’s future. Lower birth rates translate to reduced dependency ratios, potentially freeing up resources for economic development and improving per capita indicators. However, it brings another deepening reality, schools across southern states will be reporting falling enrollments. Villages that once echoed with children’s laughter now face the prospect of becoming geriatric communities dependent on migrant workers from still-fertile northern states.
The economic implications are staggering. Southern states that have driven India’s growth may soon face labour shortages, forcing them to import workers from regions with different languages, cultures, and skill sets. The political ramifications of this demographic reshuffling could fundamentally alter India’s federal structure.
(Edited by Amit Vasudev)
