The other four southern states, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, all registered identical fertility rates of 1.5.
Published Sep 08, 2025 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated Sep 08, 2025 | 7:00 AM
Tamil Nadu fertility rate. (Representative image)
Synopsis: The replacement level of fertility is crucial in maintaining a balanced demographic structure, where the number of births roughly equals the number of deaths. This balance ensures a stable workforce to support an ageing population and prevents the economic and social challenges that arise from a shrinking population base.
South India has reached unprecedented fertility levels, with Tamil Nadu at 1.3 children per woman tying for the nation’s lowest Total Fertility Rate in 2023 alongside West Bengal in large states, trailing only behind small union Territory Delhi’s 1.2, according to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) data.
The other four southern states, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, all registered identical fertility rates of 1.5. These five southern states now represent the demographic vanguard of India’s rapid fertility transition, maintaining birth rates far below the replacement level of 2.1, which is needed to maintain a stable population, and significantly lower than the national average of 1.9.
The replacement level of fertility refers to the average number of children that a woman must have over her lifetime to ensure that a population maintains its current size, without increasing or decreasing.
For most populations, this level is estimated to be 2.1 children per woman. This figure accounts for the fact that not all children born will survive to adulthood, and also that some women may not have children of their own.
A fertility rate of 2.1 is considered the threshold at which a population can replace itself from one generation to the next. This slight margin above 2.0 compensates for infant and child mortality rates and the small percentage of women who do not survive or remain childless.
If a country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) falls below 2.1 over an extended period, it generally leads to a decline in the population size unless offset by immigration or other demographic factors.
The replacement level of fertility is crucial in maintaining a balanced demographic structure, where the number of births roughly equals the number of deaths. This balance ensures a stable workforce to support an ageing population and prevents the economic and social challenges that arise from a shrinking population base.
The latest data reveals Tamil Nadu has achieved demographic uniformity, with identical fertility rates of 1.3 across both rural and urban areas in 2023. Kerala demonstrates similar uniformity with consistent rates of 1.5 across all geographic settings, while Karnataka shows minimal variation with rural areas at 1.7 and urban areas at 1.4.
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana display slightly larger rural-urban gaps, with Andhra Pradesh recording 1.6 in rural areas compared to 1.3 in urban centres, and Telangana showing 1.6 rural versus 1.5 urban rates.
These patterns indicate that family planning behaviours and reproductive choices have become standardized across geographic and socioeconomic boundaries in South India, contrasting sharply with the persistent rural-urban divides observed in northern states.
India’s overall fertility rate stands at 1.9 in 2023, down from 2.0 in 2022, representing a continued national decline. However, this national average masks enormous regional variations, with southern states clustering at the bottom of the fertility spectrum while northern states maintain substantially higher rates.
At the opposite end of the demographic spectrum, Bihar continues to lead India with a fertility rate of 2.8, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6, Madhya Pradesh at 2.4, and Rajasthan at 2.3. The gap between Tamil Nadu’s 1.3 and Bihar’s 2.8 creates a fertility differential of 1.5 children per woman, representing fundamentally different demographic trajectories within the same nation.
West Bengal emerges as another low-fertility state at 1.3, matching Tamil Nadu’s rate, while Maharashtra records 1.4. Delhi registered the absolute lowest fertility rate at 1.2, though its city-state status makes direct comparison with larger states less meaningful. Punjab maintains 1.5, placing it among the lower-fertility states despite its northern location.
The Sample Registration System (SRS) 2021 data had shown similar patterns, with South Indian states recording fertility rates between 1.5 and 1.6, indicating that the subsequent decline to current levels occurred over just a two-year period.
The National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) had earlier documented fertility rates in South India ranging from 1.70 to 1.82, suggesting that both SRS and the latest data capture an accelerating demographic transition.
The comparison between 2022 and 2023 data reveals continued fertility decline across most states. Tamil Nadu maintained its position at 1.3, showing stability at what may represent a demographic floor. West Bengal declined from 1.4 in 2022 to 1.3 in 2023, matching Tamil Nadu’s rate. Maharashtra dropped from 1.5 to 1.4, continuing its downward trajectory.
Among southern states, Karnataka showed minimal change from 1.6 in 2022 to 1.5 in 2023, while Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana remained relatively stable. The stability in these already-low fertility rates suggests these states may be approaching demographic equilibrium at sub-replacement levels.
Northern states demonstrated more substantial year-on-year declines. Bihar decreased from 3.0 to 2.8, Rajasthan fell from 2.5 to 2.3, and Madhya Pradesh declined from 2.5 to 2.4. These changes indicate that while northern states maintain higher absolute fertility levels, they are experiencing more rapid rates of decline.
The rural-urban fertility differential has persisted throughout India’s demographic transition. The SRS report shows that “the TFR in rural areas has declined from 5.4 to 2.1 from 1971 to 2023 whereas the corresponding decline in urban areas has been from 4.1 to 1.5 during the same period.” This indicates that while both sectors experienced substantial fertility decline, rural areas maintained consistently higher fertility rates throughout the transition period.
The transformation over the past decade reveals the scope of India’s fertility transition. Between 2011-13 and 2021-23, India’s overall fertility rate declined by 16.7 percent, from 2.4 to 2.0 children per woman. This national decline occurred across all residential categories, with rural areas declining by 15.4 percent and urban areas by 11.1 percent.
Tamil Nadu experienced a 17.6 percent decline over the decade, falling from 1.7 to 1.4 children per woman. The state’s rural areas showed particularly dramatic changes, declining by 23.5 percent from 1.7 to 1.3, while urban areas declined by 17.6 percent from 1.7 to 1.4. This rural decline rate exceeded the national rural average, indicating accelerated demographic change in Tamil Nadu’s countryside.
Kerala’s fertility rate declined by 16.7 percent overall during the decade, from 1.8 to 1.5. Rural areas in Kerala experienced a more pronounced decline of 21.1 percent, falling from 1.9 to 1.5, while urban areas declined by 16.7 percent from 1.8 to 1.5. Karnataka showed a 15.8 percent decline from 1.9 to 1.6, with rural areas declining by 15.0 percent and urban areas by 17.6 percent.
Andhra Pradesh, which in the data includes the undivided state before Telangana’s separation, recorded a 16.7 percent decline from 1.8 to 1.5. Rural areas declined by 15.8 percent while urban areas experienced a steeper 17.6 percent decline.
Delhi registered the most dramatic fertility decline nationally, dropping by 27.8 percent from 1.8 to 1.3 over the decade. Urban Delhi showed the steepest decline at 31.6 percent, falling from 1.9 to 1.3. Gujarat experienced the second-largest decline at 24.0 percent, decreasing from 2.5 to 1.9, with rural areas declining by 22.2 percent and urban areas by 15.0 percent.
Jharkhand recorded a 21.4 percent decline from 2.8 to 2.2, while Jammu and Kashmir declined by 21.1 percent from 1.9 to 1.5. Uttar Pradesh, despite maintaining the second-highest absolute fertility rate, showed substantial progress with an 18.8 percent decline from 3.2 to 2.6.
At the other end of the spectrum, Haryana showed the smallest decline nationally at just 9.1 percent, falling from 2.2 to 2.0. Bihar, despite its high absolute rates, recorded a moderate 12.1 percent decline from 3.3 to 2.9. Assam showed a 12.5 percent decline, while Himachal Pradesh and Punjab each declined by 11.8 percent.
Rural-urban dynamics
The decade-long data reveals interesting patterns in rural-urban fertility differentials. While rural areas typically maintained higher fertility rates than urban areas, the gaps varied significantly across states. Bihar’s urban areas showed no change over the decade, remaining at 2.3 children per woman, representing complete stagnation in urban fertility decline.
Odisha demonstrated significant rural fertility decline of 21.7 percent, falling from 2.3 to 1.8, while its urban areas declined by 20.0 percent from 1.5 to 1.2. West Bengal’s rural areas declined by 16.7 percent from 1.8 to 1.5, while urban areas declined by 8.3 percent from 1.2 to 1.1.
The convergence of rural and urban fertility rates in southern states contrasts with persistent gaps in northern states, where rural areas continue to maintain substantially higher fertility rates than urban centres. This convergence reflects broader socioeconomic changes in South India, including rural development, education expansion, and changing cultural norms around family size.
Research shows that such low fertility rates could lead to significant challenges in the coming decades, including:
South India is essentially entering the same demographic phase that Japan and parts of Europe experienced decades ago. The difference is that these Indian states are facing this transition at a lower level of per capita income, which creates unique policy challenges.
(Edited by Sumavarsha)
