The findings highlight a more dramatic demographic shift than previous estimates, raising concerns about potential long-term economic and social implications for the region.
Published May 12, 2025 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated May 12, 2025 | 7:00 AM
Synopsis: Fertility rates in South India have fallen more sharply than earlier estimates, with new government data showing all five southern states now well below the population replacement level. The 2021 Sample Registration System report puts fertility in the region at 1.5–1.6 children per woman, lower than figures from the previous National Family Health Survey. The steep drop could lead to long-term challenges, including an ageing population and shrinking workforce.
Fertility rates in South India have dropped more sharply than previously estimated, according to newly released data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) 2021.
The report, published by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner under the Ministry of Home Affairs, shows that all five southern states now have Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) between 1.5 and 1.6 children per woman. This is well below the replacement level of 2.1, which is needed to maintain a stable population.
The findings highlight a more dramatic demographic shift than what was reported in the earlier National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), raising concerns about potential long-term economic and social implications for the region.
The replacement level of fertility refers to the average number of children that a woman must have over her lifetime to ensure that a population maintains its current size, without increasing or decreasing.
For most populations, this level is estimated to be 2.1 children per woman. This figure accounts for the fact that not all children born will survive to adulthood, and also that some women may not have children of their own.
A fertility rate of 2.1 is considered the threshold at which a population can replace itself from one generation to the next. This slight margin above 2.0 compensates for infant and child mortality rates and the small percentage of women who do not survive or remain childless.
If a country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) falls below 2.1 over an extended period, it generally leads to a decline in the population size unless offset by immigration or other demographic factors.
The replacement level of fertility is crucial in maintaining a balanced demographic structure, where the number of births roughly equals the number of deaths. This balance ensures a stable workforce to support an ageing population and prevents the economic and social challenges that arise from a shrinking population base.
The SRS 2021 data shows fertility rates in South India have dropped to unprecedented levels:
These numbers represent a generational shift. A TFR of 1.5 means that the next generation will be about 25 percent smaller than the current one if migration patterns do not change substantially.
The data also reveals interesting patterns in the urban-rural fertility divide. Traditionally, rural areas maintained higher fertility rates than urban centres, but this gap appears to be closing:
While South India leads the fertility decline, India’s overall TFR stands at 2.0 (which is the same as the NFHS-5 estimate of 2.0 children per woman), just below the replacement level. North Indian states continue to sustain high fertility levels.
Bihar has the highest TFR at 3.0, followed by Uttar Pradesh with a TFR of 2.7, and Madhya Pradesh with 2.6. Even Jharkhand and Rajasthan remain well above the replacement level, with TFRs of 2.3 and 2.4, respectively.
The latest SRS 2021 report also points to a stark demographic divide between North and South India, with northern states recording Crude Birth Rates (CBRs) nearly twice as high as their southern counterparts.
Bihar tops the chart with 25.6 births per 1,000 population, while Kerala reports just 12.9, underscoring how regional disparities in education, healthcare, and women’s empowerment shape population growth.
High birth rates in states like Uttar Pradesh (24.8), Madhya Pradesh (23.8), Rajasthan (23.6), and Jharkhand (21.8) are driven by lower female literacy, limited rural healthcare access, early marriage, and cultural norms favouring larger families.
In contrast, South Indian states have significantly lower CBRs – Tamil Nadu (13.4), Andhra Pradesh (15.4), Telangana (16.1), and Karnataka (16.2) – thanks to decades of investment in girls’ education, better healthcare systems, higher female workforce participation, and later marriage ages.
The rural-urban birth rate gap is also narrowing in the South; for instance, Kerala’s urban birth rate (13.0) now slightly exceeds its rural rate (12.8).
Research shows that such low fertility rates could lead to significant challenges in the coming decades, including:
South India is essentially entering the same demographic phase that Japan and parts of Europe experienced decades ago. The difference is that these Indian states are facing this transition at a lower level of per capita income, which creates unique policy challenges.
(Edited by Dese Gowda)
