The five states accounted for 18.5 percent of India’s registered births in 2014 but contributed just 14 percent by 2023. This shrinking share could lead to reduced parliamentary representation when constituency delimitation takes place, possibly after the 2027 Census.
Published Oct 15, 2025 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated Oct 15, 2025 | 7:00 AM
Pregnancy. Representative image.
Synopsis: The five southern states recorded a 17 percent decline in birth registrations over the past decade, even as India’s overall registrations rose by 9.6 percent. Tamil Nadu and Kerala led the southern decline, while Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana showed mixed trends. The shrinking southern share of national births carries political implications.
South India’s five states recorded a sharp 17 percent decline in birth registrations over the past decade, even as India’s overall births rose 9.6 percent, adding 2.2 crore registrations between 2014 and 2023, according to the latest Vital Statistics of India report based on the Civil Registration System 2023.
Tamil Nadu led the southern slide, falling from 12.07 lakh births in 2014 to 9.03 lakh in 2023, a loss of more than three lakh newborns and the steepest absolute decline recorded by any Indian state.
Kerala followed with an 18 percent drop in just five years, losing nearly 87,000 births as registrations fell to 3.93 lakh, the state’s lowest in decades.
South India’s declining share of national births carries political implications that go beyond demography.
The five states accounted for 18.5 percent of India’s registered births in 2014 but contributed just 14 percent by 2023. This shrinking share could lead to reduced parliamentary representation when constituency delimitation takes place, possibly after the 2027 Census.
The divergence reveals two contrasting Indias emerging within a single nation. The southern states—Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana—together registered 35.27 lakh births in 2023, down from 42.47 lakh a decade earlier.
These states, which lowered fertility through development investments such as better education, healthcare access and women’s empowerment, now face political marginalisation as their populations age and shrink relative to states where fertility remains high.
Northern and eastern states have more than filled the gap. India recorded 2.52 crore births in 2023, up from 2.30 crore in 2014, driven by states with younger populations, higher fertility rates and improved registration systems, even as the more prosperous south aged and declined.
Bihar’s registrations rose 73 percent to 29.39 lakh births in 2023, adding 12.44 lakh newborns—more than Kerala’s entire current annual count.
Jharkhand grew 51 percent, Madhya Pradesh climbed 23 percent, and even Uttar Pradesh, already India’s most populous state, added over 10 lakh births despite recent stabilisation.
Tamil Nadu’s decline was concentrated in a sharp three-year window. Between 2014 and 2017, registrations fell by 2.58 lakh births, dropping from 12.07 lakh to 9.49 lakh.
The initial plunge ended by 2017. Since then, numbers have stabilised around the nine-lakh mark, fluctuating between 9.02 lakh and 9.48 lakh over the next six years. Tamil Nadu appears to have found its floor. The freefall has stopped.
The state has entered a plateau phase where births neither surge nor collapse, settling at a level roughly 25 percent below its 2014 baseline.
Kerala followed a different, more concerning trajectory. Registrations fell from 5.34 lakh in 2014 to 3.93 lakh in 2023, a loss of 1.41 lakh births over the decade. Unlike Tamil Nadu’s front-loaded fall followed by stabilisation, Kerala’s decline accelerated in recent years rather than slowed.
Between 2019 and 2023, the state lost 86,882 registered births, an 18 percent drop that gathered momentum. Between 2022 and 2023 alone, registrations plunged by 46,511, the largest single-year decline Kerala has recorded in the entire period.
The state that achieved India’s best health indicators—highest life expectancy, lowest infant mortality and best maternal care—now faces a different challenge: too few young people entering a rapidly ageing society.
Karnataka partly bucked the regional trend, showing resilience absent in its neighbours. The state registered 10.17 lakh births in 2023, down from 10.88 lakh in 2014 – a six percent decline, the mildest among southern states.
The dip to 8.99 lakh births in 2021 reflected pandemic disruptions, as hospitals prioritised COVID-19 patients and couples delayed pregnancies. Numbers recovered to cross the 10-lakh mark again by 2022.
Andhra Pradesh showed signs of stabilisation after years of decline. Registrations dropped 10 percent over the decade to 7.62 lakh in 2023 from 8.49 lakh in 2014. The 2014 bifurcation that created Telangana stripped away nearly a third of the state’s territory and population, making direct comparisons complex.
However, the past five years tell a different story. Between 2019 and 2023, the state added 7,154 births, a 0.95 percent increase – the only positive movement among southern states in recent years.
Telangana presented the most volatile pattern of any major state, marked by administrative chaos followed by correction. The new state recorded 6.53 lakh births in 2023, up 14.6 percent from 5.69 lakh in its formation year, 2014. This apparent growth masked dramatic fluctuations.
Registrations climbed steadily from 2014 to 2018, reaching 6.53 lakh. Then came 2019. Numbers shot up to 8.41 lakh, adding 1.89 lakh births in a single year – a 28.9 percent jump that defied demographic logic.
The correction proved equally sharp. Registrations fell 22.4 percent over the next four years, from that artificial 2019 peak to 6.53 lakh by 2023.
Bihar led India’s registration boom. The state recorded 29.39 lakh births in 2023, up from 16.95 lakh in 2014 – a 73 percent jump that added 12.44 lakh registrations. To put this in perspective, Bihar added more births than Kerala currently registers in total.
Growth accelerated between 2017 and 2021, when numbers rose from 20.52 lakh to 32.53 lakh. District hospitals expanded maternity wards, and primary health centres hired additional staff.
Jharkhand recorded the steepest percentage growth. Birth registrations jumped 51.7 percent over the decade, from 6.42 lakh in 2014 to 9.74 lakh in 2023, adding 3.32 lakh registrations. The state gained particular momentum in recent years, growing 36 percent between 2019 and 2023.
Last year alone saw a surge of 2.72 lakh additional births – the largest single-year jump recorded by any state.
Madhya Pradesh showed steady expansion without dramatic swings. Registrations grew 23.3 percent over the decade to reach 19.89 lakh in 2023, up from 16.13 lakh in 2014. The state added 3.75 lakh births during this period.
Uttar Pradesh remained India’s leader in birth registrations despite recent moderation. The state recorded 49.71 lakh births in 2023, up from 39.17 lakh in 2014, adding 10.54 lakh registrations – the largest absolute increase posted by any state.
However, numbers peaked at 51.32 lakh in 2019 and declined 3.2 percent over the next four years, suggesting a demographic transition may be beginning even in India’s most populous state.
Jammu and Kashmir recorded the sharpest percentage rise of any state or union territory. Registrations nearly doubled, rising 86.4 percent from 1.55 lakh in 2014 to 2.88 lakh in 2023. Growth surged between 2021 and 2023, with numbers jumping from 1.75 lakh to 2.88 lakh.
The 2023 surge alone added 96,368 births, likely reflecting administrative improvements after the territory’s reorganisation in 2019, when it lost statehood and was split into two union territories – Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.
Chhattisgarh saw the steepest percentage decline of any major state. Registrations fell 31.9 percent over the decade, from 8.45 lakh in 2014 to 5.75 lakh in 2023, a loss of 2.70 lakh births. Numbers bottomed out at 4.77 lakh in 2021 before recovering slightly. The past five years showed modest growth of 3.2 percent, suggesting the worst has passed, though the state has not regained its 2014 levels.
Assam experienced a sharp recent decline that broke from its earlier stability. Over the decade, registrations fell 17.1 percent from 7.23 lakh to 6.00 lakh, but the past five years were more severe. Registrations dropped 21.3 percent between 2019 and 2023, a loss of 1.63 lakh births.
The 2021 fall of 88,521 registrations in a single year marked the sharpest drop.
Maharashtra showed mixed trends that resist simple classification. India’s third most populous state registered 18.05 lakh births in 2023, down eight percent from 19.63 lakh in 2014. However, the past five years brought recovery, with registrations growing 3.3 percent since 2019.
Numbers declined steadily until 2020, bottoming out at 17.12 lakh, before reversing course.
The year 2021 disrupted birth registrations across states, though the impact varied widely. Karnataka saw the steepest single-year fall, losing 89,000 births. Telangana lost 58,000, and Assam dropped 88,000.
Most states recovered partially by 2022–2023, but some have not regained pre-pandemic levels. Delhi recorded 3.15 lakh births in 2023, down 15.7 percent from 3.74 lakh in 2014.
Punjab registered a steady decline until recent stabilisation broke the trend. Numbers fell 12.4 percent over the decade, from 4.64 lakh in 2014 to 4.06 lakh in 2023. The past five years brought a reversal, with registrations rising 3.9 percent since 2019, suggesting the state has found a floor after years of fertility decline.
Smaller states and northeastern territories displayed erratic patterns that make interpretation difficult. Manipur’s registrations more than doubled between 2019 and 2023, rising from 30,120 to 61,203.
However, the 2019 figure represented an anomalous collapse from previous years, when numbers ranged between 58,000 and 74,000. The apparent surge reflects recovery from administrative disruption rather than a demographic boom.
Meghalaya grew 69.5 percent over the decade, largely due to a 2019 spike when registrations jumped to 1.30 lakh from earlier levels of around 75,000–87,000. Arunachal Pradesh fluctuated sharply, with registrations nearly doubling to 95,539 in 2017 before falling back to the 40,000–50,000 range.
(Edited by Dese Gowda)
