Telangana exhibited the most striking pattern among southern states, with suspected cases increasing sixty-fold from just 220 in 2021 to 13,592 in 2024.
Published Oct 02, 2025 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated Oct 02, 2025 | 7:00 AM
Chikungunya is usually transmitted by mosquitoes.
Synopsis: From 2021 to 2025, South India has emerged as the country’s primary Chikungunya hotspot. The latest data from the NCVBDC revealed that between 2021 and 2025, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, and Puducherry collectively reported 48.2 percent of the total cases in India.
South India has emerged as the country’s primary Chikungunya hotspot, with five southern states and two union territories reporting nearly half of all suspected cases nationally over the past five years, according to official surveillance data.
The latest data from the National Center for Vector Borne Diseases Control (NCVBDC) accessed through RTI by South First revealed that between 2021 and 2025, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, and Puducherry collectively reported 3,93,151 suspected Chikungunya cases out of India’s total of 8,16,280 cases — a 48.2 percent regional share that far exceeds the South’s population proportion.
Karnataka dominates both regional and national statistics, reporting 2,85,502 suspected cases over the five years. The state showed consistent year-over-year increases from 40,134 suspected cases in 2021 to a peak of 78,217 cases in 2024, before declining to 29,149 cases in 2025 (data through August 31).
The state’s confirmed cases followed a similar trajectory, rising from 2,188 in 2021 to 2,954 in 2024, then dropping to 729 in 2025. Karnataka alone accounts for 35 percent of all Chikungunya cases reported nationwide over this period.
Telangana exhibited the most striking pattern among southern states, with suspected cases increasing sixty-fold from just 220 in 2021 to 13,592 in 2024. This represents the steepest escalation recorded in any major Indian state during this period.
The state’s confirmed cases rose from 76 in 2021 to 452 in 2024, though the confirmation rate declined from 34.5 percent to 3.3 percent over this period. By 2025, Telangana had become the second-largest contributor to South India’s Chikungunya burden with 7,176 suspected cases through August.
Andhra Pradesh remained relatively stable through 2023 with fewer than 1,000 suspected cases annually, but experienced a sharp increase to 4,213 suspected cases in 2024 and 3,281 in 2025, making it the third-largest contributor in the region.
Tamil Nadu maintained relatively steady numbers, fluctuating between 2,097 and 4,805 suspected cases annually. The state showed an improving confirmation rate, rising from 4.2 percent in 2021 to 17.4 percent in 2025.
Kerala demonstrated a consistent declining trend, with suspected cases dropping from 3,030 in 2021 to 339 in 2025. The state maintained relatively stable confirmation rates ranging from 2.8 percent to 11 percent across the five years.
Puducherry, despite its small population, reported consistently high numbers ranging from 5,000 to 11,440 suspected cases annually. Notably, the union territory reported zero confirmed cases in 2025 despite 5,000 suspected cases.
Lakshadweep emerged as a new reporting area starting in 2022, with numbers gradually increasing from 103 suspected cases that year to 367 in 2025.
The data revealed a significant regional concentration of Chikungunya transmission. Southern states’ share of national suspected cases peaked at 61.2 percent in 2022 and remained consistently above 40 percent throughout the five years.
For confirmed cases, southern states’ contribution varied more dramatically, ranging from 20.4 percent in 2023 to 36.5 percent in 2022. The region’s overall confirmation rate of 3.7 percent was significantly lower than the 9.4 percent rate recorded for the rest of India.
Epidemiologists have pointed out that South India’s disproportionately high chikungunya numbers are driven by multiple factors.
The region’s warm, humid climate and dual monsoons create a longer breeding season for Aedes mosquitoes, while rapid urbanisation without matching improvements in drainage, sanitation, and waste management leaves stagnant water everywhere. The biology of the vector, particularly Aedes albopictus, allows it to thrive not only in dense urban areas but also in semi-urban and rural habitats, which are common across the South.
High population density increases human–mosquito contact, fueling transmission. Chikungunya also follows cyclical epidemic patterns, flaring up when immunity in the population wanes.
Finally, states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have stronger surveillance systems, so more cases are captured and reported compared to regions where underreporting remains significant.
2021: Southern states reported 55,075 suspected cases (46.2 percent of the national total) and 3,063 confirmed cases (25.8 percent of the national total).
2022: The region’s contribution peaked with 90,978 suspected cases (61.2 percent of the national total) and 2,946 confirmed cases (36.5 percent of the national total).
2023: Southern states reported 90,258 suspected cases (45.1 percent of the national total) and 2,339 confirmed cases (20.4 percent of the national total).
2024: The region recorded its highest absolute numbers with 109,431 suspected cases (45.6 percent of the national total) and 4,638 confirmed cases (25.9 percent of the national total).
2025: Till 31 August, southern states reported 47,409 suspected cases (43.7 percent of the national total) and 1,471 confirmed cases (29.4 percent of the national total).
A notable pattern emerges in confirmation rates across the region. While southern states consistently report high numbers of suspected cases, their confirmation rates vary significantly both between states and across years.
Rajasthan, by comparison, showed 100 percent confirmation rates throughout the period, while southern states averaged much lower percentages. Karnataka’s confirmation rate declined from 5.5 percent in 2021 to 2.5 percent in 2025, while Telangana dropped from 34.5 percent to 3.5 percent over the same period.
India’s total Chikungunya burden showed an overall increasing trend, with suspected cases rising from 119,070 in 2021 to a peak of 240,180 in 2024. The 2025 data, covering only eight months, shows 108,379 suspected cases.
Nationally, confirmed cases peaked at 17,930 in 2024, compared to 11,890 in 2021. The national confirmation rate has fluctuated between 4.6 percent and 10 percent over the five years.
The concentration of nearly half of India’s Chikungunya cases in South India, representing roughly 20 percent of the country’s population, indicates significant regional clustering of disease transmission. The consistently lower confirmation rates in high-burden southern states compared to other regions raises questions about surveillance protocols, laboratory capacity, or case definition applications.
The data shows 2024 as the peak year for both regional and national Chikungunya transmission, with southern states contributing 109,431 of the nation’s 240,180 suspected cases. Early 2025 trends suggest a decline, though complete annual data is needed for a definitive assessment.
(Edited by Muhammed Fazil.)
