These southern state patterns contrast sharply with India’s overall demographic trajectory, where the country recorded a 13.1 percent increase in registered births over the decade, rising from 2,24,82,951 in 2013 to 2,54,39,164 in 2022.
Published Jun 21, 2025 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated Jun 21, 2025 | 7:00 AM
Tamil Nadu leads this regional decline with a dramatic 21 percent drop in birth registrations over the decade.
Synopsis: Three of India’s five southern states have recorded a decline in birth registrations over the past decade, with Tamil Nadu seeing the steepest fall at 21 percent, followed by Kerala at 18 percent. This contrasts with the national trend, where India as a whole saw a 13.1 percent increase in registered births between 2013 and 2022.
Three of India’s five southern states have recorded significant declines in birth registrations over the past decade, with Tamil Nadu leading the downturn with a sharp 21 percent drop and Kerala following closely with an 18 percent decline, according to the Vital Statistics of India Based on the Civil Registration System 2022.
Karnataka registered a modest 2.9 percent decrease, while Andhra Pradesh managed a small 4.1 percent increase. Only Telangana bucked the regional trend with robust 17.9 percent growth.
These southern state patterns contrast sharply with India’s overall demographic trajectory, where the country recorded a 13.1 percent increase in registered births over the decade, rising from 2,24,82,951 in 2013 to 2,54,39,164 in 2022.
The southern peninsula’s experience signals a broader demographic transition, with the region’s combined birth registrations falling from 41,09,739 in 2013 to 40,69,526 in 2022 – a regional decline of 40,213 births, representing a 1 percent drop, while the rest of India experienced substantial growth.
Among southern states in 2022, Tamil Nadu recorded the highest absolute birth registrations at 9,36,837, followed by Karnataka (10,37,182), Andhra Pradesh (7,52,403), Telangana (7,03,362), and Kerala (4,39,742). Karnataka actually surpassed Tamil Nadu in absolute numbers by 2022, despite Tamil Nadu historically having higher registrations.
Tamil Nadu leads this regional decline with a dramatic 21 percent drop in birth registrations over the decade, falling from 11,85,397 births in 2013 to 9,36,837 in 2022 – a reduction of exactly 2,48,560 births. This decline represents one of the steepest in the country and signals the state’s advanced position in India’s demographic transition.
The state’s trajectory has been particularly stark since its peak year of 2014, when it recorded 12,06,850 births. Tamil Nadu now registers 2,70,013 fewer births than its peak performance, representing a 22.4 percent decline from its highest point.
The state maintained relatively stable numbers through 2015 (11,67,506 births) before beginning a steady decline that accelerated through 2017 (9,48,573 births) and reached its lowest point in 2021 (9,13,084 births).
Despite this overall decline, the state has shown signs of recent stabilisation, with registrations increasing from 9,15,406 in 2018 to 9,36,837 in 2022 – a modest rise of 21,431 births representing 2.3 percent growth over the four-year period. This suggests possible recovery from pandemic-related disruptions and administrative improvements.
Kerala presents an even more pronounced pattern of demographic transition, with birth registrations declining by 18 percent over the decade from 5,36,352 in 2013 to 4,39,742 in 2022 – a reduction of 96,610 births.
Uniquely among southern states, Kerala peaked in the very first year of the data series (2013) and has experienced consistent decline throughout the entire decade.
The state’s decline has been remarkably steady: 5,34,458 (2014), 5,16,013 (2015), 4,96,292 (2016), 5,03,597 (2017), 4,88,174 (2018), 4,80,113 (2019), 4,46,891 (2020), 4,19,767 (2021), and 4,39,742 (2022).
The state’s 9.9 percent drop from 2018 to 2022, representing a decline of 48,432 births, indicates this trend has continued unabated even in recent years. Kerala’s experience reflects its status as India’s most demographically advanced state, with the decline totalling 96,610 births over the full decade.
Karnataka shows a more nuanced trajectory, with a modest 2.9 percent overall decline from 2013 to 2022, dropping from 10,68,671 births to 10,37,182 births – a reduction of 31,489 births.
The state peaked in 2016 with 11,07,258 births and currently sits 70,076 births below that peak, representing a 6.3 percent decline from its highest point.
Karnataka’s year-by-year progression shows: 10,87,530 (2014), 10,53,248 (2015), 11,07,258 (2016), 10,99,019 (2017), 10,28,934 (2018), 10,47,877 (2019), 9,88,143 (2020), 8,99,065 (2021), and 10,37,182 (2022).
The state experienced significant pandemic impact, with 2021 showing its lowest registrations at 8,99,065 births before recovering to above 10 lakh births in 2022.
Significantly, Karnataka has shown recent recovery with registrations increasing from 10,28,934 in 2018 to 10,37,182 in 2022 – a rise of 8,248 births, representing 0.8 percent growth over the four-year period, suggesting better adaptation to post-pandemic conditions compared to other southern states.
The newly formed state of Telangana stands out as the region’s demographic success story, recording remarkable 17.9 percent growth over the decade, rising from 5,96,424 births in 2013 to 7,03,362 in 2022 – an increase of 1,06,938 births. This makes Telangana the best-performing southern state in terms of growth rate.
Telangana’s progression shows consistent growth through most of the decade: 5,69,470 (2014), 6,12,489 (2015), 6,24,581 (2016), 6,17,620 (2017), 6,52,791 (2018), reaching its peak of 8,41,268 in 2019, before declining to 6,69,320 (2020), 6,11,651 (2021), and recovering to 7,03,362 (2022).
However, even Telangana is not immune to recent pressures, currently sitting 1,37,906 births below its 2019 peak, representing a 16.4 percent decline from its highest point. The state shows 7.8 percent growth from 2018 to 2022, with an increase of 50,571 births.
Andhra Pradesh shows moderate growth of 4.1 percent over the decade, rising from 7,22,843 births in 2013 to 7,52,403 in 2022 – an increase of 29,560 births. The state peaked in 2015 with 8,51,499 births and has since declined by 99,096 births from those levels, representing an 11.6 percent drop from its peak.
The state’s trajectory shows: 8,48,883 (2014), 8,51,499 (2015), 8,14,754 (2016), 8,18,165 (2017), 7,60,716 (2018), 7,54,939 (2019), 7,14,017 (2020), 7,37,189 (2021), and 7,52,403 (2022).
From 2018 to 2022, the state experienced a slight 1.1 percent decline, with registrations dropping by 8,313 births from 7,60,716 to 7,52,403.
The southern decline contrasts sharply with explosive growth in other regions. Uttar Pradesh dominates nationally with 54,43,003 births in 2022, representing 21.4 percent of the national total. The state grew from 38,95,924 in 2013 to 54,43,003 in 2022 – an increase of 15,47,079 births, representing 39.7 percent growth over the decade.
Bihar recorded the most extraordinary growth, surging 92.6 percent from 15,96,494 births in 2013 to 30,71,603 in 2022 – an increase of 14,75,109 births. The state’s growth was particularly dramatic in later years, jumping from 22,41,089 in 2018 to 30,71,603 in 2022.
Other high-growth states include Uttarakhand, with 89.4 percent growth, rising from 1,43,242 births in 2013 to 2,71,320 in 2022 – an increase of 1,28,078 births. Madhya Pradesh grew 8.1 percent from 16,55,691 to 17,89,365 births, adding 1,33,674 births over the decade.
Multiple states across India joined the southern region in experiencing decadal declines. Sikkim recorded the steepest percentage decline at 28.1 percent, falling from 8,589 births in 2013 to 6,177 in 2022 – a drop of 2,412 births. Himachal Pradesh declined 24.9 percent, dropping from 1,21,232 to 90,988 births, losing 30,244 births over the decade.
Delhi experienced a significant decline, falling 18.8 percent from 3,70,000 births in 2013 to 3,00,350 in 2022 – a reduction of 69,650 births. Gujarat declined 11.0 percent, dropping from 12,66,047 to 11,26,522 births, losing 1,39,525 births over the decade.
Goa recorded a 20 percent decline from 21,667 to 17,326 births, while Odisha fell 11.6 percent from 7,65,388 to 6,76,394 births – a decline of 88,994 births. Punjab dropped 10.7 percent from 4,48,409 to 4,00,579 births, losing 47,830 births over the decade.
The COVID-19 pandemic’s impact proved universal across all states, with clear disruptions visible in 2020–2021 data. National registrations dropped from 2,48,20,886 in 2019 to 2,42,24,444 in 2020 and 2,42,01,614 in 2021, before recovering to 2,54,39,164 in 2022.
However, recovery patterns varied significantly across regions. Bihar showed remarkable resilience, growing from 28,09,167 in 2019 to 30,71,603 in 2022.
Uttar Pradesh recovered from 51,31,999 in 2019 to 54,43,003 in 2022. Maharashtra bounced back from 17,12,003 in 2020 to 19,19,023 in 2022.
In contrast, several states continued declining even post-pandemic. Kerala’s registrations fell from 4,80,113 in 2019 to 4,39,742 in 2022. Manipur dropped from 30,120 in 2019 to 25,833 in 2022, showing volatility in north-eastern states.
Large northern states including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan continue to dominate absolute numbers and drive national growth. These four states alone accounted for 1,47,66,111 births in 2022, representing 58.1 percent of India’s total birth registrations.
Union territories generally maintained stable numbers, with variations reflecting their smaller populations. Chandigarh registered 27,169 births in 2022, while Puducherry recorded 34,987 births. The newly created Ladakh union territory registered 3,067 births in 2022.
The birth registration data reveals India’s position at a crucial demographic crossroads, with different regions experiencing varying stages of demographic transition. Southern states’ experience of peaking early in the decade and subsequently declining mirrors global patterns observed in developed regions, while northern states continue expansion phases that are likely to moderate in coming decades.
(Edited by Dese Gowda)
