Kerala continues to maintain its position as the state with the lowest birth rate in India, recording a CBR of just 12.9 in 2021. Tamil Nadu follows closely with a CBR of 13.4, while other southern states also demonstrate considerably lower birth rates than the national average.
Published May 18, 2025 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated May 18, 2025 | 7:00 AM
The underlying driver of these low birth rates in the South is female education.
Synopsis: Southern India is witnessing a sharper decline in birth rates than the rest of the country, with Kerala and Tamil Nadu recording the lowest figures, according to the Sample Registration System 2021 report. The data links this trend closely to higher levels of female education in the region, where literacy and graduation rates among women far exceed the national average.
South India is experiencing a faster and deeper decline in birth rates than the rest of the country. The factor behind the decline correlates with the education levels in these states.
The recently released Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2021 has confirmed the pattern that demographers have been observing over the past decade.
At the national level, the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – the number of live births per 1,000 population – stood at 19.3 in 2021, registering a decline of 0.2 points over the previous year and a 1.1-point drop since 2016.
Since 1971, when the CBR was 36.9, India has seen a steady fall in its birth rate, declining to 21.8 by 2011 and further to 19.3 by 2021 – an overall reduction of nearly 48 percent over five decades.
This long-term trend reflects broader changes in fertility behaviour, access to healthcare, and socioeconomic development across regions.
Kerala continues to maintain its position as the state with the lowest birth rate in India, recording a CBR of just 12.9 in 2021.
This figure is significantly lower than the national average and positions Kerala among regions with birth rates comparable to many developed nations.
Tamil Nadu follows closely with a CBR of 13.4, while other southern states also demonstrate considerably lower birth rates than the national average.
The latest SRS data confirms that all southern states – Andhra Pradesh at 15.9, Telangana at 16.1, and Karnataka at 16.5 – are all substantially below the national average of 19.5 for the same period.
When comparing CBR data over a decade, from 2009–11 to 2019–21, the national average CBR declined by 12.2 percent – from 22.2 to 19.5.
In this same period, the southern states outpaced this national decline.
Karnataka recorded the sharpest drop among them, with a 14.1 percent reduction (from 19.2 to 16.5), followed by Tamil Nadu with a 13.8 percent fall (from 16.0 to 13.8).
Kerala’s CBR declined by 11.4 percent, while Andhra Pradesh’s fell by 11.2 percent. Data for Telangana is not disaggregated in this comparison, as it was part of united Andhra Pradesh during the earlier period.
While birth rates continue to be higher in rural areas compared to urban centres, the rural-urban differential has narrowed considerably over the decades.
In 1981, the difference stood at 8.6 points, but by 2021, this gap had reduced to just 5.0 points, indicating more uniform adoption of family planning measures across different settings.
Importantly, the decline in birth rates in the South has been more pronounced in urban areas, suggesting that the demographic transition is deeper in cities.
For instance, Karnataka’s urban CBR dropped by 13.2 percent, Tamil Nadu’s by 13.9 percent, and Andhra Pradesh’s by 8.9 percent, reflecting both access to reproductive healthcare and changing family size norms in urban households.
In Kerala, urban and rural CBRs are now nearly identical, with urban areas (13.0) even slightly surpassing rural (12.8), indicating near parity across regions.
In stark contrast to South India’s achievements, several northern and central states continue to report significantly higher birth rates. Bihar leads with the highest CBR of 25.6, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 24.8 and Madhya Pradesh at 23.8.
These states have also experienced slower declines in their birth rates.
Bihar’s total CBR decreased by just 8.9 percent between 2009–11 and 2019–21, with its urban areas showing a minimal reduction of 4.5 percent. Similarly, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh recorded reductions under 12 percent, significantly lower than their southern counterparts.
The underlying driver of these low birth rates in the South is female education, which can be seen in the SRS data itself.
In Kerala, 99.6 percent of women aged 15–49 are literate, with 28.2 percent having completed Class XII and 25.4 percent holding graduate degrees or higher – the highest in India.
Tamil Nadu reports 97.8 percent literacy, with 21.8 percent completing higher secondary and 20.3 percent holding graduate degrees. Karnataka is not far behind, with 96.1 percent literacy and significant shares completing secondary (28.6 percent) and higher education (10.7 percent).
In contrast, northern states with high birth rates show much lower female education levels. Bihar, despite having the country’s highest CBR, has nearly 20 percent illiterate women in the 15–49 age group, and only 3.2 percent are graduates.
Uttar Pradesh, with a CBR of 25.0, has 15.7 percent illiterate women and just 8.8 percent graduates.
Apart from southern states, some north Indian states also showcase the same pattern. In Delhi, 19.3 percent of women aged 15–49 are graduates, placing it second only to Kerala.
The city-state’s CBR stands at 14.2, far below the national average of 19.3.
Notably, its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years – stands at 1.4, the lowest in India, signalling an early and pronounced demographic transition typical of urban, educated populations.
Similarly, Himachal Pradesh, often overlooked in national discourse, has 20.3 percent of women graduates and a remarkable 35 percent who have completed Class XII – the highest in the country for secondary school completion.
Correspondingly, its CBR is 15.2 and TFR has dropped to 1.7, well below the replacement level. Punjab, with 14.1 percent women graduates and 21.9 percent with Class XII, also follows this pattern closely, reporting a CBR of 14.3 and a TFR of 1.6.
These figures are far from coincidental. As seen in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab, even outside the southern states, the demographic dividends of female education are evident – lower birth rates, declining fertility, and emerging ageing concerns.
The SRS 2021 has also revealed that Total Fertility Rates have declined more sharply than previously estimated, especially in South India.
While the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) (2019–21) had already shown that all southern states had achieved below-replacement fertility (2.1), the SRS data shows an even steeper drop.
For instance, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which NFHS-5 placed at a TFR of 1.8, are now reported by SRS 2021 to have reached 1.5.
Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, estimated earlier at 1.7, have also dropped to 1.5 and 1.6 respectively, while Telangana stands at 1.6.
These are among the lowest fertility rates in the country, on par with East Asian nations facing population ageing.
(Edited by Dese Gowda)
