Getting Padmanabham into the YSRCP would be a shot in the arm for the party which was striving hard to come up with a 'Kapu strategy'.
Pawan Kalyan with Chandrababui Naidu, Mudragada Padmanabham, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy.
Is Kapu patriarch Mudragada Padmanabham the answer to the quandary the ruling YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh faces in the state’s Godavari delta region — the Kapu heartland where the community is numerically significant?
An alliance between the Jana Sena — headed by film star-turned politician Pawan Kalyan — and the TDP, would have a significant impact in the Kapu areas, and the YSRCP was already considering several options to come up with its own “Kapu strategy” to counter the expected consolidation.
The recent outburst by Mudragada Padmanabham against fellow Kapu Pawan Kalyan thus comes at an opportune moment, and YSRCP supremo and Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy appears set to capitalise on the disaffection of the former minister who still wields considerable influence in the community.
Making no bones about the fact that he was in the fray to spoil the chances of the YSRCP, Pawan Kalyan has been focusing only on the twin districts — East and West Godavari — where his community holds sway.
Both the Jana Sena and the TDP believe that Pawan Kalyan’s strength lies in the region and it is where his party polled a significant number of votes in 2019, at a time they were not in an alliance.
These votes had then proved costly for the TDP, whose candidates lost across the region, and also helped YSRCP notch up a historic win, grabbing 151 of the 175 seats in the Assembly.
It is against the background that Pawan had launched his “Varahi Vijaya Yatra” — a political road tour — in the Godvari region on 14 June, the second leg of which was kicked off from Eluru on Sunday, 9 July.
In the first leg, Pawan was on the road for 17 days in the East and West Godavari districts. He covered nine Assembly constituencies and addressed eight public meetings.
It is at this juncture that former minister Mudragada Padmanabham, one of the tallest leaders of the Kapu community who holds sway among the older voters, came down heavily on Pawan Kalyan.
Padmanabham, who has stayed away from electoral and active politics since 2004, when he lost that year’s elections from the Kakinada parliament segment, was enraged with Pawan Kalayan’s comments during the Varahi Yatra since he felt they were aimed at him.
Pawan Kalyan had commented that some veteran leaders of the community had built their political careers on the stir demanding reservations for Kapus.
Padmanabham, who had been fighting for reservations to the Kapu community, wrote two open letters to the Jana Sena chief in quick succession, even as the actor-politician was on his tour.
In the first letter, Padmanabham questioned Pawan Kalyan’s commitment to the cause of the Kapus. In the second, sent three days later, he dared the actor-politician to face him in the elections from the Pithapuram Assembly segment in the 2024 polls.
Padmanabham also indirectly praised Chief Minister Jagan for revoking the cases filed against the Kapu youth who were booked by the then TDP government for the Tuni train arson incident in 2016.
However, Padmanabham didn’t offer any clarity on whether he would contest the election under any party banner or be in the fray as an independent candidate.
The veteran leader, who was scathing in his comments, also said Pawan Kalyan might be a hero in movies — but was a zero in politics.
The YSRCP was quick to react to the war of words between the two Kapu leaders.
Rajampet MP Peddireddy Mithun Reddy, who is the YSRCP in-charge of the two Godavari districts and is also a close confidant of Chief Minister Jagan, said that his party was ready to welcome Mudragada Padmanbham.
Acknowledging the veteran leader’s clout, Mithun Reddy on Sunday said: “If Mudragada Padmanabham wants to join the YSRCP, we will warmly welcome him.”
However, he emphasised that the final decision regarding his entry into the YSRCP rests with Chief Minister Jagan.
Interestingly, a few YSRCP leaders, including Kakinada MP Vanga Geetha, and Jyotula Chantibanu, who was the party candidate of Jaggampet in the last election, had met Padmanabham in the first week of June.
While it was a total sweep for the YSRCP, with a few exceptions, in the Godavari region in the 2019 polls, both the Godavari districts may have a bearing on the poll outcome in 2024 if the Jana Sena enters into a poll pact with TDP.
Godavari region, a strong Kapu belt along with a sizeable population of Backward Classes (BCs), is crucial for all political parties.
The two Godavari districts together send 34 MLAs to the Assembly.
A total rout in West Godavari, which has 15 Assembly segments, and bagging only five segments out of the 19 in East Godavari had severely dented YSRCP’s chances of coming to power in the 2014 polls.
In that election, the Jana Sena did not field candidates of its own and, instead, had backed the TDP, transferring the Kapu vote to the party.
However, with Pawan Kalyan’s party in the fray independently in the 2019 election and mopping up significant numbers of the Kapu vote, the YSRCP swept the two Godavari districts in the 2019 polls, helping Jagan to the chief minister’s chair.
Kapus are the second-highest vote bank in Andhra Pradesh after BCs, who are divided into various caste groups.
According to one estimation, Kapus, who constitute 15.2 percent of the Andhra Pradesh population, and are a homogenous group that votes en masse for one particular party.
After the state’s bifurcation, Kapu votes had become crucial for political parties to form the government. The fact that the TDP came to power in 2014 only with the help of Kapu votes is no secret.
Both the TDP and the YSRCP have tried their best to woo the Kapus.
TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu had done the unthinkable by giving the Kapus a five percent sub quota in the 10 percent reservation quota announced by the Centre for the economically weak in the unreserved section.
The YSRCP had promised ₹10,000 crore in funds to them.
During the 2014 polls, Kapus had aligned with TDP following Naidu’s promise and efforts by Pawan Kalyan, which helped the party form the government in the state.
Mudragada Padmanabham is a four-time MLA and a one-time MP. He had also served as a minister in the TDP and the Congress governments in the erstwhile combined Andhra Pradesh.
He started his political career as a Janata Party MLA in 1978. Later, when NT Rama Rao launched the TDP in 1982, he joined and won both the 1983 and 1985 elections from the Prattipadu Assembly constituency in East Godavari district.
He lost for the first time as an MLA in 1994 and did not contest again from Prattipadu.
For some time he had also dabbled with the BJP. Later, in 1999, he represented the TDP in the Lok Sabha from Kakinada and then lost in the 2004 elections from the same constituency.
After this, he has been away from electoral politics and built a movement demanding reservations to Kapus.
“Pawan Kalyan has been bringing disrespect to the entire Kapu community with his loose cannon talk. He had never worked for the welfare of the poor or Kapus. Whereas, Mudragada Padmanabham had lost all his properties while fighting for the Kapu’s cause,” YSRCP’s Kapu leader and Kapu Welfare Corporation Chairman Adapa Seshu told South First.
“Where was Pawan Kalyan when Padmanabham had to face abuses and harassment from the TDP leaders between 2014 and 2019? Whatever Pawan Kalyan speaks is scripted by the TDP. After Vangaveeti Mohan Ranga, we look up to Mudragada Padmanabham, since he has been working for the welfare of Kapus tirelessly with commitment,” he added.
“Pawan Kalyan comes out only during elections to benefit the TDP. We will welcome Padmanabham wholeheartedly into YSRCP if he wishes to join us. But he is above all political parties,” Seshu said.
He added that it was unfortunate that Jana Sena workers have been targeting Padmanabham on social media and other platforms, even hurling abuses at his family.
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