Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections: The odds at betting markets for YSRCP, NDA

Punters in Delhi, Hyderabad, and Bhimavaram satta markets are betting on NDA to win 105-109 seats out of the 175 in Andhra Pradesh Assembly.

ByBhaskar Basava

Published May 23, 2024 | 10:30 AMUpdatedMay 23, 2024 | 11:28 AM

Betting are also on at a micro-local level in the state. (Creative Commons)

The long wait for the Assembly and Lok Sabha poll results in Andhra Pradesh has made bookies happy.

The illegal ‘satta bazaars‘ — or the betting markets — with tables in Delhi, Hyderabad, and Bhimavaram, are buzzing with activity with punters putting their money on political parties, which they feel would win.

Besides these organised bazaars, betting is on at a micro-local level over personal networks.

A punter, who requested anonymity for obvious reasons, said bets were being placed on region-wise winning probabilities, JSP leader Pawan Kalyan’s margin in Pithapuram, and the chances of the principal Opposition party, the TDP.

Related: YSRCP, TDP confident of winning: Jagan banks on women voters, Naidu on discontent

Advantage NDA

Most punters in Delhi, Hyderabad, and Bhimavaram felt the NDA would romp home comfortably with 105-109 seats out of the total 175 in the state Assembly.

Punters told South First that the betting ratio was 1:1, meaning a person betting ₹1 on a particular party would lose or win the same amount depending on the party’s performance.

They also predicted that the ruling YSRCP would get only 67-71 seats, less than the simple majority of 88 to form the government.

They reasoned that the YSRCP depending solely on its welfare schemes would not help it win the polls.

Offering further insight, they said the YSRCP should retain its 2019 vote share of 49.95 percent for a run for its money, especially since the TDP, JSP, and BJP have joined hands against the ruling party.

YSRCP supremo and Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s proposal for three capitals, inadequate focus on the IT sector, sand policy, liquor policy, and inflation, have dented his vote bank, which has swung in favour of the NDA, they said.

The NDA’s vote share in 2019 was 47 percent, with the TDP claiming the major share of 39.17 percent, followed by JSP’s 7.04 percent and BJP’s 0.85 percent.

Also Read: Andhra Pradesh records highest turnout in South India

Betting on vote share

Punters were expecting an increase in the NDA’s vote share, which they attributed to the voters’ disenchantment with Jagan.

They also noted that TDP’s campaign highlighting the Andhra Pradesh Land Titling Act, 2022, sparked fear that Jagan would snatch away the lands or that many people without proper documents would face issues as local MLAs would vie for lands if the YSRCP returned to power — was successful.

“This has impacted Jagan’s prospects in rural areas where YSRCP traditionally relied for support. The TDP and JSP, which seem strong in urban areas at the constituency level, have gained from the rural vote divide on the Land Titling issue,” a punted explained.

Another observer active in the betting market felt the YSRCP might fare well in the erstwhile Rayalaseema region, comprising 52 Assembly constituencies.

“The YSRCP may win around 30-35 seats in the region,” he told South First.

He added that within the NDA, TDP was expected to win around 90-94 seats, JSP 12-15 seats, and BJP, three. The TDP, JSP, and BJP contested 144, 21, and 10 seats, respectively.

Also Read: CM Jagan and TDP chief Naidu’s silence on violence is loud

Margin matters 

A YSRCP affiliate in the Godavari region said pro-NDA bookies were offering betting ratios of 1:2 and 1:5 against YSRCP forming the government.

It means if a person bet ₹1 on TDP and won, they would get ₹1, but if lost, they would lose ₹2 or ₹5, respectively.

He added that this betting was within a network of known persons. He added that people were betting on individual candidate’s winning margins as well.

Interestingly, it has been learned bets were being placed on Pawan Kalyan’s winning margin in Pithapuram. Most punters believed he would win by a margin of around 30,000 votes.

“Some — particularly fans of Kalyan and NDA affiliates — bet that he will win by a margin of more than 30,000 votes. Others — particularly affiliates of YSRCP — are betting on a margin below 30,000,” a man who had put in his money, said.

Betting was also on Jagan’s majority in Pulivendula. Some expected the YSRCP chief to win by a majority higher than TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu’s in Kuppam, Nara Lokesh’s in Mangalagiri, Kalyan’s in Pithapuram, and Balakrishna’s in Hindupur.

Meanwhile, others — at the district level — were betting on the winning probability of YSRCP Cabinet ministers, with the ratios varying based on party affiliations.

“Betting is likely to increase after the exit polls on 1 June,” a gambler from Vijayawada noted.

Andhra Pradesh went to simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha polls on 13 May. Results will be announced on 4 June.

(Edited by Majnu Babu).