South First poll: Congress will emerge as single-largest party in Karnataka

Karnataka By South First Desk January 4, 2023 Read the article

The Karnataka Assembly election, scheduled to take place in April-May this year, is set to throw up a hung verdict, according to the South First-People’s Pulse survey.

[{"selector":"#anim-7bd0dd6b-a1c1-46d7-a78a-5815085644a7","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-feafa5a3-de2e-493b-be18-e00d99065871","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 45.14748%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1c1a8359-fa5d-4c8f-be02-d4d80a79c5fd","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8217c98e-a2bc-46ef-a5ab-d75580c40c0e","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 131.94446%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d4361d19-5b6b-4e8b-8bdf-4c8c7767dcdb [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-21.874999829338588%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Karnataka Read the article

The survey also shows that Siddaramaiah is the top choice for chief minister in the state.

[{"selector":"#anim-22f5c6fc-b931-4c55-afea-e417ed8d7b5c","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-21815f3a-a1ac-4184-9ebc-3f809eca7dd9","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 36.89439%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f2dc22e6-b529-4989-a434-126a4c2fc856","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2f306ef2-6244-45b0-a0aa-59caaaaf9b57","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 193.50815%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e99a980c-a27b-4f4a-984e-f41cad207b2a [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-33.11890563971135%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-02a2b1d5-f33c-4305-b83d-120e57e03686","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-104.78723%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-706f7f3d-b7ff-486a-a388-a37dead4829b","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5da939c4-c8e1-4125-a3ed-7355a2aac6c4","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] Karnataka Read the article

The first Tracker Poll has predicted that the Congress could win 101 (+/- 9) seats, making it the single-largest party in the 224-member Assembly.

[{"selector":"#anim-18c1f79a-49e0-45a2-aec1-a318e7496bce","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-3e9c2018-28bf-4a53-ae22-bb0d0485747a","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 45.14748%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-96169b00-1b46-4c27-ba96-7a7f36c049d1","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8414b1cd-9255-4ece-8706-651602f771ba","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 157.97428%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2d7f4370-c7a1-40a7-92f6-06b485248065 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-28.99096372793968%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Karnataka Read the article

The 2023 Karnataka opinion poll has predicted 91 (+/-7) seats for the incumbent BJP and 29 (+/-5) seats for the Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S).

[{"selector":"#anim-75dc5b2f-c9c1-4e16-9b3d-6d6b69f38754","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-cab0673d-bfd1-4591-a332-ffdcc2589ee6","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 45.14748%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5c7e03ac-449e-4ab8-8dcc-c05ad9fae363","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f52f133f-751e-4826-8dc3-d6d96b000697","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 157.97428%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-81765c7b-f60b-49e0-adc5-9a1e4bc684be [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-34.12984394906913%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-773672cf-5201-4923-acf1-c60be0317ff2","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-106.43835%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-b4ad8234-a1e0-40cc-a795-91641e5b0446","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a16d92c1-d996-4e58-bb13-f4f00cba1197","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] Karnataka Read the article

This means, despite being the party with least number of seats, the JD(S) may once again be in a position to decide the fate of the next government in Karnataka.

[{"selector":"#anim-b466d41f-1ce4-47cf-bfa4-3baa87b8dbb6","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5aa3ed7a-9690-4c6d-be21-f51197d20973","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 45.14748%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-cf95c165-de0f-48f8-8ff6-afc018fa9f3e","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e39a808f-ecd4-4a21-98fe-bf6347497071","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 157.97428%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-11e45f09-a6a6-4aa5-b9e1-6274becc97e3 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-32.71921631305133%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-56034e95-2a9f-4bd5-8ff9-092735e7b982","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-106.5934%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-be35ee1c-2b9a-4a47-b4c1-228e6b87a2fe","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4eb0753d-b2ba-4d04-94fb-81f92e366980","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] Karnataka Read the article

The first Tracker Poll was conducted from 22 to 31 December, 2022. Two more Tracker Polls are scheduled — in March 2023 and just before the elections.

[{"selector":"#anim-1cee17bf-7962-4622-8b20-94ef03150e9c","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a0a6710a-d535-4f7d-aaea-63c5491712a6","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 47.89852%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f5eeb57d-aaf9-4196-aa0e-80d2a5a39b12","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-9d5a9457-07c4-4f6e-9043-b0ef6c263d4c","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 149.55809%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-554e3889-6167-45fc-a3a2-be3014f51f52","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-104.49735%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d3c57e48-7bc7-4004-bcac-45c4f051974b","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-109ac959-d21e-4f21-a20c-ffbd27188f97","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8b03d3ae-d931-4f79-b5cc-9a6bccff4780 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-34.179687404002955%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Karnataka Read the article

The Poll has a total sample of 4,584 respondents spread across 224 locations spanning 56 Assembly constituencies of Karnataka.

[{"selector":"#anim-b06fd4bd-adf9-4ea9-9f51-f1ee9fb77629","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2108dcbf-804f-4e10-b09e-743d4801602c","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 43.77197%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f050fe06-c62c-488e-b53a-db865b8f4f91","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1e3b11e0-3e26-4c55-9a93-edca14ed9bda","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 159.33485%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a6fbfd53-2587-43fc-9ed2-0a05f81d0353 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(9.993077288885114%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Karnataka Read the article

The sample is representative of the social and political demography of Karnataka with an average Margin of Error on the voting variable of 1.2 (+ / –) percentage points.

[{"selector":"#anim-af3bd723-a0ae-49cf-a622-2a69967dcf7a","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-75007d37-2f8a-4271-b357-2ea36952414d","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 46.52301%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bd5efd14-27e0-4602-998e-950bcd2a34e9","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-28b4ca21-dfc4-4ad7-b82c-e04f863aaa5a","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 144.44446%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c601d93c-3335-4c36-bdbb-924cb30b173a [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-17.638888775114616%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Karnataka Read the article

Before starting the questionnaire, each respondent’s informed consent was recorded after reading out a Statement of Informed Consent.

[{"selector":"#anim-d7baa80a-4e37-4ef5-9318-013e84f72030","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7df274a5-12e8-46e7-9696-e69f7a298459","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 46.52301%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-12e3107e-6fd6-4746-9292-50488c7c8134","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4c9d6224-4b60-4074-a4c3-e3d6091940c0","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 144.44446%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-82d4412e-f575-494b-8ba9-c8bbafb30f94 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(12.499999772451451%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Karnataka Read the article

The voting question was asked using a dummy Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) to maintain respondents’ confidentiality.

[{"selector":"#anim-3a5cd373-1730-4a4f-b012-4e94c3980685","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-9de06124-4597-4792-b2fd-13dcc37fc8e0","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 43.77197%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-57b745bb-7c88-4ce4-80e6-b5bae47ed6e1","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ee3b194a-58b3-400e-a664-80474943e2c4","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 159.33485%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c3cea9b6-9b9f-4e4b-8928-423f6906dd4f [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-38.54023426121151%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Karnataka Read the article

A rigorous back-check of 15 percent of the total interviews ensured high standards of data quality.

[{"selector":"#anim-9e798d49-6eda-4d56-8287-6fe9bb1dded4","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c3b2167b-5986-421c-96cf-8c5cd8ae66f9","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 39.64542%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c4f92936-bafb-48db-b44f-8fe75356fa3d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7fa2ef79-e33d-4334-9f20-990bf8965082","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 173.91715%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6cd368ea-8f0f-407c-b0d5-63c50d285f60 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(0%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Karnataka Read the article